Braga vs Austria Wien: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202621°18 km/h

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Braga

Austria WienLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Braga (71%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.50 (+0 %)

1 · Braga 71%X 17%12% Austria Wien · 2

71%

17%

12%

Analysis: Braga – Austria Wien

Sofia Andersson · 18 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

SC Braga's home fortress, coupled with a formidable 71% model probability in their favor, sets the stage for what looks like a testing evening for Austria Vienna. With SC Braga's expected goals tally at 2.09, their offensive prowess is poised to shine against an Austria Vienna side whose expected goals languish at 0.82. The Portuguese side's dominance at home is further underscored by scoreline probabilities, giving a nod to 2-0 and 1-0 outcomes.

Austria Vienna's ten-game scoring streak in their league is an impressive feat, yet the Conference League presents a different caliber of challenge. The forecasted 5.4 mm of rain may dampen the attacking ambitions of both teams, leaning into a tighter affair than the numbers might initially suggest. Such weather conditions often take the sting out of the game, possibly suppressing the expected goal output.

The Over 2.5 goals is pegged at 55%, yet with rain in the mix and Austria Vienna's relative underdog status, the balance tips ever so slightly towards a more conservative goal forecast. The 49% chance of both teams finding the net suggests a toss-up, but SC Braga's defensive stability at home might just edge Austria Vienna out of the equation.

Austria Vienna will need more than just their league momentum to breach Braga's defenses. With a small head-to-head sample, historical matchups offer limited insight and take a backseat to current form and expected performance.

The sharpest betting angle here is the value found in Paddy Power's odds for under 2.5 goals at 2.25, aligning with the model's 45% probability. While the edge is neutral, the rain's impact and SC Braga's likely control paint a picture of a controlled, low-scoring victory — perhaps a 2-0 or 1-0 for the hosts.

Braga

Austria Wien

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #13xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Kelvin Owusu BoatengFxG 0.73 · xT 0.19
Manfred FischerFxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Johannes EggesteinFxG 0.55 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Braga – Austria Wien

Predicted score matrix

Austria Wien →

Braga →

0–05.8%

0–14.2%

0–21.8%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.2%

1–19.6%

1–23.8%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.9%

2–19.8%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.3%

3–16.8%

3–22.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–07.0%

4+–15.7%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.1-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,09–0,82

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.25EV+0%

Over 2,555%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Braga to win71%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Braga to win71%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Jean-Baptiste Gorby to score32%
Florian Wustinger to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.567% probability@1.50Paddy PowerEV+0%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.25Paddy PowerEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Braga	X	2 · Austria Wien
Betsafe	1.34	4.30	8.30
Betsson	1.34	4.30	8.30
Nordicbet	1.34	4.30	8.30
Paddy Power	1.30	4.75	7.00

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:35

Odds movement

10 %

70 %65 %

1.34 → 1.34

X-10 %

23 %18 %

4.80 → 4.30

2+14 %

14 %9 %

7.30 → 8.30

Over 2,5+5 %

61 %56 %

1.55 → 1.62

Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Austria Vienna have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Austria Wien

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Austria Wien (8–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Austria Wien

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Austria Wien

The goalkeepers	Braga	Samuel Sahin Radlinger (Austria Wien)
Saves	–	16
Save %	–	80%
xG prevented	–	63%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Braga vs Austria Wien according to our model?

The model gives Braga a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Braga 71%, draw 17%, Austria Wien 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.