Sion vs Ajax: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202622°1,8 mm4 km/h

Läs på svenska

SionBalanced & physical

AjaxPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Sion (40%)

1 · Sion 40%X 27%33% Ajax · 2

40%

27%

33%

Analysis: Sion – Ajax

Erik Lindberg · 14 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A tantalizing 40% chance of Sion victory hangs over this Conference League clash, at odds with AFC Ajax's recent table-topping achievements. Yet, the numbers tell a story of parity: Sion's expected goals of 1.47 nearly mirror Ajax's 1.50, suggesting a tightly contested 90 minutes. The model's embrace of Sion might surprise some, given Ajax's superior points and underlying xG dominance, but football has a knack for upturning expectations.

AFC Ajax, with a superior xG per match at 3.7 compared to Sion's 2.1, underscores an attacking prowess that's hard to ignore. However, their defensive stability, boasting an xGA of 0.48, speaks volumes about their ability to suppress opposition threats. Sion, though, isn't to be written off, possessing a balanced and physical style that could unsettle Ajax's possession and high press strategy.

Sion's 40% win probability is intriguing, yet the model-based lean towards Sion should not overshadow Ajax's evident strengths and edge in expected metrics. Despite the small head-to-head sample size that offers a limited view, the likelihood of both teams finding the net stands at a solid 60%, hinting at goals for both sides.

Expect a scoreline that reflects the tight margins: a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome, aligning with the 12% probability. With over 2.5 goals tipped at 57%, there's a reasonable lean towards a goal-fest, albeit not overwhelming.

The sharpest angle? The small legend of Sion's underdog potential at major bookmakers. The model's 40% chance for Sion triumph signals a possible betting value, especially if odds favor Ajax more heavily due to their stature. As always, it's about reading between the lines, and perhaps here, there's a story of Sion ready to be told.

Sion

Form DWDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #7xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Ali KabacalmanCMxG 0.36 · xT 0.13
Ilyas ChouarefRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.31
Numa LavanchyRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.27

Ajax

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.57 · xT 0.55
Mika GodtsLWxG 0.76 · xT 0.43
Owen Colin WijndalLWBxG 0.50 · xT 0.31

Match prediction: Sion – Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Ajax →

Sion →

0–05.5%

0–17.4%

0–25.8%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.5%

1–07.2%

1–111.6%

1–28.5%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.5%

2–18.3%

2–26.2%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.7%

3–14.1%

3–23.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.4%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,47–1,50

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.22

Over 2,557%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sion or draw (1X)62%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sion or draw (1X)62%
Over 2.5 goals57%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sion40% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+72%
1 · Sion40% probability@4.25BetssonEV+72%
1 · Sion40% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+72%

Bookmaker	1 · Sion	X	2 · Ajax
Betsafe	EV+ 72% 4.25	EV+ 4% 3.85	1.70
Betsson	EV+ 72% 4.25	EV+ 4% 3.85	1.70
Nordicbet	EV+ 72% 4.25	EV+ 4% 3.85	1.70

Odds updated 16 Aug, 23:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Sion win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 4.90 to 4.25 (−13%).

1-13 %

25 %15 %

4.90 → 4.25

X-7 %

28 %18 %

4.15 → 3.85

2+12 %

62 %52 %

1.52 → 1.70

Over 2,5-1 %

63 %53 %

1.60 → 1.58

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 16/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sion

Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sion (9–4)

Ajax (13–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sion

Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sion

Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sion	Ajax
Points	8	10
xPoints	7.6	8.4
xG per match	2.1	3.7
xGA per match	0.81	0.48
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.57
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.17

Playing style	Sion	Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.69	0.89
xT per match	1.4	2.3
xTA per match	0.65	0.48
Won balls, offensive half	25	28
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.26
Entries into the box per match	17	28
Entries into the box against	6	5
Pass completion %	0.79	0.86
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.81
Passes per match	436	645
Passes against per match	351	237
Switches of play per match	29.1	38.8
Long balls per match	31	32

Set pieces	Sion	Ajax
xG from free kicks	0.19	0.02
Corners per match	6.7	11
Corners against per match	1.5	1.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.14

Other	Sion	Ajax
Throw-in control	0.82	0.87

The goalkeepers	Anthony Racioppi (Sion)	Maarten Vincent Paes (Ajax)
Saves	6	9
Save %	60%	64%
xG prevented	16%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sion vs Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Sion a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sion 40%, draw 27%, Ajax 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.