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    TO
    Tobol
    vs
    Partizan BelgradePartizan Belgrade
    The model's lean: 2 · Partizan Belgrade (45%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.00 (+12 %)

    Tobol – Partizan Belgrade · Conference League

    1 · Tobol 28%X 27%45% Partizan Belgrade · 2

    Analysis: Tobol – Partizan Belgrade

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    FK Tobol Kostanay are in a rut, with three consecutive losses casting a shadow over their Conference League clash with FK Partizan Belgrade. The Kazakh side's struggle is stark against Partizan's relative favor in the betting markets, where the Serbian team boasts a 45% win probability. Tobol's recent form is a pressing concern, suggesting they might find it tough to break their streak against Partizan.

    FK Partizan Belgrade roll into this matchup with the wind at their backs, but not just due to Tobol's faltering form. The model tilts towards Partizan with a lean of 45%, and the score projections echo that sentiment, highlighting a 1-2 win as a plausible outcome. Yet, the tight margins in expected goals — 1.36 for Tobol and 1.46 for Partizan — point towards a closely fought contest, suggesting that neither side will dominate outright.

    The over 2.5 goals market teeters at 53%, with both teams to score marked at 57%, hinting at potential fireworks on the pitch. However, with rain and strong wind often curbing goal-scoring, the under markets present intriguing value. Paddy Power's odds offer compelling angles: under 1.5 goals at 5.0, which the model rates with a 22% chance, and under 2.5 at 2.375, providing a 10% edge over the bookmakers' line.

    The draw, priced at 4.0 with Paddy Power, also emerges as a tempting proposition with an 8% edge. Given the close expected goals and the potential for adverse weather, a 1-1 outcome — the most likely scoreline at 12% — feels both logical and enticing for those seeking value. While Partizan might have the upper hand, a cautious eye should be cast towards the draw and unders, where the sharpest angles lie.

    Tobol
    Form LWLLL
    Key players
    • Islam ChesnokovRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.24
    • Miljan VukadinovičLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.24
    • Serikzhan MuzhikovCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
    Partizan BelgradePartizan Belgrade
    Key players
    • Nikola AntićLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
    • Mihajlo IlićCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
    • Svetozar MarkovićCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.02

    Match prediction: Tobol – Partizan Belgrade

    Predicted score matrix

    Partizan Belgrade →
    Tobol →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–18.4%
    0–26.3%
    0–33.1%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–07.8%
    1–112.2%
    1–28.6%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–18.1%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–02.5%
    3–13.7%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,36–1,46
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.38EV+10%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.81

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Partizan Belgrade to win45%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    31%

    Fair odds

    3.25

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Partizan Belgrade to win45%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Erik Kojzek to score30%

    Combined probability

    7%

    Fair odds

    13.79

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Erik Kojzek to score30%
    • Essien Ededem to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    29.52

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.522% probability@5.00Paddy PowerEV+12%
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.38Paddy PowerEV+10%
    • X · Draw27% probability@4.00Paddy PowerEV+8%
    Bookmaker1 · TobolX2 · Partizan Belgrade
    Betsafe2.883.40
    EV+ 3%
    2.28
    Betsson2.883.40
    EV+ 3%
    2.28
    Nordicbet2.883.40
    EV+ 3%
    2.28
    Paddy Power3.30
    EV+ 8%
    4.00    		1.80
    Pinnacle2.913.25
    EV+ 2%
    2.25

    Odds updated 12 Aug, 12:08

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    34 %29 %

    2.80 → 2.91

    X-7 %
    30 %25 %

    3.48 → 3.25

    2+1 %
    44 %39 %

    2.22 → 2.25

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • FK Tobol Kostanay have lost 3 in a row.
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2023
    Tobol (8–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tobol
    Bojan Mlađović: 244 passningar, xT 0.73MlađovićIvan Rogač: 235 passningar, xT 0.43RogačBagdat Kairov: 188 passningar, xT 0.6KairovRoman Asrankulov: 163 passningar, xT 0.49AsrankulovJovan Ilić: 139 passningar, xT 0.21IlićSerikzhan Muzhikov: 129 passningar, xT 0.2MuzhikovYevgen Shakhov: 119 passningar, xT 0.11ShakhovSamat Zharynbetov: 118 passningar, xT 0.18ZharynbetovMiljan Vukadinovič: 110 passningar, xT 0.4VukadinovičSerge Deblé: 79 passningar, xT 0.1DebléAlbert Gabaraev: 77 passningar, xT 0.45Gabaraev
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tobol
    Bojan Mlađović: 244 passningar, xT 0.73MlađovićIvan Rogač: 235 passningar, xT 0.43RogačBagdat Kairov: 188 passningar, xT 0.6KairovRoman Asrankulov: 163 passningar, xT 0.49AsrankulovJovan Ilić: 139 passningar, xT 0.21IlićSerikzhan Muzhikov: 129 passningar, xT 0.2MuzhikovYevgen Shakhov: 119 passningar, xT 0.11ShakhovSamat Zharynbetov: 118 passningar, xT 0.18ZharynbetovMiljan Vukadinovič: 110 passningar, xT 0.4VukadinovičSerge Deblé: 79 passningar, xT 0.1DebléAlbert Gabaraev: 77 passningar, xT 0.45Gabaraev
    The goalkeepersIvan Konovalov (Tobol)Partizan Belgrade
    Saves20–
    Save %67%–
    xG prevented60%–
    Claims0 (0%)–

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tobol vs Partizan Belgrade according to our model?

    The model gives Partizan Belgrade a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tobol 28%, draw 27%, Partizan Belgrade 45%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.