Europa League: Predictions, Odds & Tips

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    The Europa League mixes clubs dropping out of Champions League qualifying with league winners from smaller markets — the kind of ties where odds get set on reputation rather than level. The model judges on data: every side's strength, form and style weighed on one scale, with 1X2 probabilities, a score matrix and goal lines for each tie.

    Thursday-night coupons are also where the mispricings hide — the model flags positive expected value (EV+) whenever its number beats the odds, and grades itself openly afterwards.

    Upcoming matches

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    League table2026/27

    PosTeamPSW–D–LGF–GAxPxGxGAxGDFTStyle
    1Ferencváros2397–2–019–616,515,89,4+6,446 %Low block & direct
    2Beşiktaş1876–0–112–213,615,95,1+10,870 %Possession & high press
    3Benfica1675–1–121–613,718,65,2+13,469 %Possession & high press
    4Red Bull Salzburg1665–1–010–312,011,64,7+6,967 %Possession & high press
    5Anderlecht943–0–18–46,56,85,7+1,150 %Low block & direct
    6OFI Crete622–0–04–03,52,63,3−0,714 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    7Omonia Nicosia632–0–15–33,73,74,9−1,234 %Balanced & physical
    8PAOK642–0–27–66,26,13,7+2,457 %Balanced & physical
    9Lech Poznań431–1–19–64,75,63,7+1,954 %Possession control
    10Thun441–1–27–125,15,06,5−1,546 %Possession control
    11Juventus311–0–05–02,83,40,7+2,736 %Balanced & physical
    12Crystal Palace311–0–04–01,62,41,5+0,957 %Balanced & physical
    13Sparta Praha311–0–04–11,62,91,3+1,671 %Possession & high press
    14Union Saint-Gilloise311–0–03–02,12,71,0+1,748 %Balanced & physical
    15Bayer Leverkusen311–0–02–02,01,70,6+1,174 %Possession & high press
    16Viktoria Plzeň321–0–15–43,66,42,8+3,668 %Possession & high press
    17Bournemouth311–0–02–11,10,81,2−0,435 %Possession control
    18Lyon311–0–02–11,81,71,5+0,229 %Possession control
    19Olympiacos311–0–02–12,63,30,4+2,979 %Possession & high press
    20Torreense311–0–02–11,11,52,6−1,124 %Low block & direct
    21Sunderland311–0–01–02,12,91,4+1,524 %Possession control
    22Jagiellonia Białystok321–0–13–32,02,15,2−3,132 %Low block & direct
    23Sint-Truiden321–0–13–42,83,63,2+0,466 %Balanced & physical
    24Vikingur Reykjavik321–0–13–52,42,53,6−1,145 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    25FC Ararat-Armenia321–0–12–42,92,44,1−1,741 %Balanced & physical
    26Kauno Žalgiris321–0–11–32,10,84,5−3,79 %Low block & direct
    27St. Gallen321–0–12–62,12,15,2−3,133 %Low block & direct
    28Dinamo Zagreb110–1–00–01,00,41,1−0,728 %Low block & direct
    29Sturm Graz110–1–00–01,20,82,0−1,235 %Low block & direct
    30Rennes110–1–00–01,62,00,8+1,265 %Possession control
    31Hapoel Be'er Sheva110–1–00–01,71,10,4+0,772 %Possession & high press
    32Pafos120–1–23–41,42,03,9−1,939 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    33Twente120–1–13–41,83,22,7+0,578 %Possession & high press
    34Górnik Zabrze120–1–11–22,92,82,4+0,456 %Balanced & physical
    35Hearts120–1–12–71,31,25,3−4,121 %Low block & direct
    36Real Sociedad010–0–11–21,61,20,8+0,465 %Possession control
    37Lillestrøm010–0–11–21,72,61,5+1,176 %Possession & high press
    38Iberia 1999010–0–11–21,01,91,8+0,159 %Possession control
    39Universitatea Craiova010–0–10–11,11,31,1+0,247 %Balanced & physical
    40AZ Alkmaar010–0–10–10,71,42,9−1,576 %Balanced & physical
    41Celta Vigo010–0–10–11,71,40,4+1,064 %Balanced & physical
    42Levski Sofia010–0–10–11,21,21,5−0,363 %Possession control
    43Pafos010–1–20–10,70,41,4−1,020 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    44Celtic010–0–11–30,91,11,2−0,158 %Possession control
    45Hoffenheim010–0–10–21,22,00,9+1,192 %Possession & high press
    46AC Milan010–0–10–21,11,21,0+0,268 %Possession & high press
    47Hradec Králové020–0–20–21,21,84,9−3,150 %Balanced & physical
    48Celje010–0–10–20,70,61,7−1,126 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    49CSKA Sofia010–0–10–20,81,31,8−0,577 %Possession & high press
    50Dynamo Kyiv020–0–22–51,71,32,4−1,147 %Balanced & physical
    51Marseille010–0–11–41,00,91,8−0,941 %Balanced & physical
    52Midtjylland020–0–20–31,51,54,7−3,224 %Low block & direct
    53Kairat Almaty010–0–10–30,30,33,0−2,732 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    54AGF020–0–22–61,40,87,0−6,220 %Low block & direct
    55Vojvodina020–0–21–51,60,83,8−3,024 %Possession control
    56Red Star Belgrade010–0–11–50,10,54,7−4,222 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    57Mjällby020–0–20–41,31,14,8−3,723 %Low block & direct
    58Trabzonspor020–0–20–51,11,55,7−4,241 %Possession control
    59NEC010–0–10–50,10,73,4−2,764 %Balanced & physical

    Latest articles

    All articles
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    2026-09-17 · 1 min

    This week's pool betting 17/9: locks and upsets

    This weekend's football round offers a wide range of pool betting, with Stryktipset and Europatipset from Svenska Spel, ATG's Big 9, and several products in the PoolX network such as Survivor8 and Flextipset8EUR. The article analyzes 53 matches in total and particularly highlights matches that recur across several betting formats, including Levski Sofia–Salzburg, where the data points toward an away win for Salzburg with a 54 percent probability.

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    Ida celebrated, the week's surprises pay off

    The article presents five football matches where statistical measures such as xG, field tilt, and expected threat point toward different outcomes than what the odds indicate, with specific betting suggestions for Celtic-Ferencvaros, Leverkusen-Celje, and Djurgården-Gais. Throughout, more even goal-scoring chance patterns and vulnerabilities in transition play are highlighted as reasons to question the expected favorite victories.

    This week's pool betting 27/8: locks and upsets

    2026-08-27 · 2 min

    This week's pool betting 27/8: locks and upsets

    Stryktipset, Europatipset, Big 9 and the PoolX games offer an eventful week where in-depth statistics – from xG to pressing play and field tilt – highlight interesting matches such as Lillestrøm-Egnatia, Omonia-Sint-Truiden and AGF-Benfica. Among the week's clearest favorites is Bayern München against Stuttgart, where the home team is expected to dominate heavily according to the xG figures.

    Played matches

    Prediction track record
    Levski SofiaLevski Sofia
    0–1
    Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
    1 20%X 26%2 54%
    The model called the outcome
    Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
    4–0
    Lech PoznańLech Poznań
    1 36%X 28%2 36%
    The model missed the outcome
    Besiktas JKBesiktas JK
    4–1
    MarseilleMarseille
    1 46%X 26%2 28%
    The model called the outcome
    LillestrømLillestrøm
    1–2
    TorreenseTorreense
    1 53%X 24%2 23%
    The model missed the outcome
    Real SociedadReal Sociedad
    1–2
    BournemouthBournemouth
    1 32%X 25%2 43%
    The model called the outcome
    OFI CreteOFI Crete
    2–0
    HoffenheimHoffenheim
    1 20%X 20%2 60%
    The model missed the outcome
    Viktoria PlzeňViktoria Plzeň
    0–3
    Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise
    1 35%X 26%2 39%
    The model called the outcome
    CelticCeltic
    1–3
    FerencvárosFerencváros
    1 50%X 23%2 27%
    The model missed the outcome
    JuventusJuventus
    5–0
    NECNEC
    1 67%X 18%2 14%
    The model called the outcome
    Hapoel Be'er ShevaHapoel Be'er Sheva
    0–0
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    1 40%X 26%2 34%
    The model missed the outcome
    OlympiacosOlympiacos
    2–1
    Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia Białystok
    1 68%X 19%2 13%
    The model called the outcome
    Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
    2–0
    CeljeCelje
    1 74%X 16%2 10%
    The model called the outcome

    How the predictions work

    Every prediction comes from PlaymakerAI's match model — the same data platform professional clubs use for scouting and match analysis. The model is trained on event data from hundreds of thousands of matches and weighs over 200 factors per team: strength ratings, current form, playing style, squad player profiles, fixture congestion, travel and even matchday weather.

    For each fixture the model produces a full goal distribution. From it we derive the 1X2 probabilities, the score matrix, expected goals, over/under lines and both-teams-to-score. Predictions are frozen before kickoff and never changed afterwards — once a match finishes we grade it openly, hit or miss.

    Odds are collected continuously from several bookmakers. When the model's probability for an outcome exceeds what the odds imply, we flag it as value (EV+). That is the model's assessment, not a guarantee: even positive-EV bets lose often. Gamble responsibly.

    Europa League FAQ

    Where do I find Europa League predictions?

    Right here: every match in the Europa League has its own analysis with 1X2 probabilities, most likely scoreline, over/under and value against current odds. Pick a match from the upcoming list — predictions are refreshed before every round and graded openly afterwards.

    How are the Europa League predictions made?

    Each match is replayed thousands of times in the model using hundreds of metrics per team — expected goals, pressing, expected threat, field tilt, form and squad. The output is a probability for every scoreline, which is then compared with bookmaker odds to find value.

    What is the xP table?

    xP means expected points: how many points each team should have taken given the quality of chances created and conceded. The gap between xP and the real table shows which the Europa League teams are over- and underrated right now.

    Which teams play in Europa League 2026/27?

    Europa League 2026/27 has 24 teams: Ferencváros, Beşiktaş, Benfica, Red Bull Salzburg, Anderlecht, OFI Crete, Omonia Nicosia, PAOK, Lech Poznań, Thun, Juventus, Crystal Palace, Sparta Praha, Union Saint-Gilloise, Bayer Leverkusen, Viktoria Plzeň, Bournemouth, Lyon, Olympiacos, Torreense, Sunderland, Jagiellonia Białystok, Sint-Truiden, Vikingur Reykjavik.

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.