Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga12 September 202614°1,7 mm10 km/h

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RiedPossession control

Red Bull SalzburgPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Red Bull Salzburg (59%)Best value by the model: 1 · Ried @ 5.57 (+8 %)

1 · Ried 19%X 22%59% Red Bull Salzburg · 2

19%

22%

59%

Analysis: Ried – Red Bull Salzburg

Oscar Nilsson · 7 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Red Bull Salzburg's 59% win probability stands out ahead of their clash with Ried. The visitors, riding a wave of three consecutive victories, have also found the net in eight straight league games, underscoring their offensive prowess. Salzburg's expected goals of 2.24 against Ried's 1.11 further highlights their attacking edge.

While Ried's model probability to win is a modest 19%, their ability to control possession could pose challenges. However, Salzburg's high press typically disrupts such strategies, as reflected in their substantial xG advantage of 3.0 per match compared to Ried's 1.7. The small sample size of head-to-heads, where neither team has dominated, adds little weight against current form and expected goals.

Looking at the betting angles, the over 2.5 goals market is implied at 65%, leaning towards a higher-scoring affair despite Ried's controlled play style. The most likely scorelines, 1-2 and 0-2, hint at Salzburg's superiority. Given these dynamics, the value might lie with Salzburg to win, a potentially profitable play considering their current form and statistical edge.

Ried

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #6Points #9

Key players

Yussef NasraweCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Moegamat Yusuf MaartCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Evan Eghosa AisowierenFxG 0.40 · xT 0.00

Red Bull Salzburg

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Haris TabakovićFxG 0.63 · xT -0.02
Yorbe VertessenFxG 0.92 · xT 0.03
Nikolas Konrad VeratschnigRWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Ried – Red Bull Salzburg

Predicted score matrix

Red Bull Salzburg →

Ried →

0–03.8%

0–17.6%

0–28.8%

0–36.6%

0–4+6.3%

1–03.6%

1–19.0%

1–29.8%

1–37.3%

1–4+6.9%

2–02.1%

2–14.8%

2–25.4%

2–34.0%

2–4+3.8%

3–00.8%

3–11.8%

3–22.0%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.4%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.1-19%
3.0-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,11–2,24

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@2.62

Over 2,565%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Red Bull Salzburg to win59%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Red Bull Salzburg to win59%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Sota Kitano to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Sota Kitano to score36%
Stefan Schwab to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Ried19% probability@5.57PinnacleEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ried	X	2 · Red Bull Salzburg
Betsafe	4.90	4.05	1.58
Betsson	4.90	4.05	1.58
Nordicbet	4.90	4.05	1.58
Pinnacle	EV+ 8% 5.57	4.14	1.56

Odds updated 10 Sept, 07:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Red Bull Salzburg win since 4 September — the odds have shortened from 1.68 to 1.56 (−7%).

1+15 %

21 %16 %

4.84 → 5.57

X+6 %

26 %21 %

3.90 → 4.14

2-7 %

61 %56 %

1.68 → 1.56

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ried 0Draw 1Red Bull Salzburg 1

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Red Bull Salzburg come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Red Bull Salzburg have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ried

Red Bull Salzburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ried (6–10)

Red Bull Salzburg (14–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ried

Red Bull Salzburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ried

Red Bull Salzburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ried	Red Bull Salzburg
Points	4	13
xPoints	6.9	10.4
xG per match	1.7	3
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.46
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.52

Playing style	Ried	Red Bull Salzburg
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.33
Field tilt	0.6	0.65
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	0.93	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	29	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.26
Entries into the box per match	14	14
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.76	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.78
Passes per match	349	586
Passes against per match	324	299
Switches of play per match	22.3	32.7
Long balls per match	32	34

Set pieces	Ried	Red Bull Salzburg
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.21
Corners per match	4.5	8.7
Corners against per match	4.1	3.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.39

Other	Ried	Red Bull Salzburg
Throw-in control	0.7	0.76

The goalkeepers	Andreas Leitner (Ried)	Christian Zawieschitzky (Red Bull Salzburg)
Saves	12	12
Save %	55%	80%
xG prevented	36%	91%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg according to our model?

The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ried 19%, draw 22%, Red Bull Salzburg 59%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.