Anderlecht vs Kortrijk: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League23 August 2026Lotto Park, Bryssel15°10 km/h

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AnderlechtPossession & high press

KortrijkLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Anderlecht (54%)

1 · Anderlecht 54%X 22%24% Kortrijk · 2

54%

22%

24%

Analysis: Anderlecht – Kortrijk

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Anderlecht's possession-heavy style might face resistance against Kortrijk's low block, but the numbers suggest a clear advantage for the hosts. Anderlecht's expected goals per match stand at a robust 2.2, while their defensive solidity is highlighted by a mere 0.69 expected goals against. This contrasts sharply with Kortrijk, who struggle both in attack and defense, with an xG of only 0.74 and xGA of 2.5. Despite Kortrijk's defensive approach, they appear vulnerable to Anderlecht's high press and offensive firepower.

The head-to-head record is slim, with just four matches since 2023, showing Anderlecht leading slightly with two wins. Yet, Anderlecht's historical home win rate of 57% in 61 matches paints a more predictive picture. The model heavily leans towards Anderlecht, assigning them a 54% probability of winning, while Kortrijk's chances linger at 24%. Expected goals favor a moderate scoring affair, aligning with the model's most probable outcomes of 1-1 or 2-1.

For those seeking value, Kortrijk's win at 24% probability might intrigue at longer odds, but the smart money sides with Anderlecht. Look for a narrow home victory, possibly 2-1, with over 2.5 goals slightly favored at 56%. Keep an eye on Anderlecht to leverage their superior xG stats against a porous Kortrijk defense.

Anderlecht

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #1xP/match #6Points #8

Key players

Marco KanaCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
Ali MaamarRWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.51
Tristan DegreefLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.35

Kortrijk

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #17xP/match #14Points #18

Key players

Rudy Seimao Erolde KohonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Goduine KoyalipouFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
Ken MasuiLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Anderlecht – Kortrijk

Predicted score matrix

Kortrijk →

Anderlecht →

0–05.8%

0–16.0%

0–23.7%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–09.2%

1–111.4%

1–26.5%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.3%

2–19.7%

2–25.6%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.8%

3–15.6%

3–23.3%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.1%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,74–1,16

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Anderlecht to win54%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Anderlecht to win54%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Danylo Sikan to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Danylo Sikan to score22%
Brecht Emiel Dejaegere to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Anderlecht 2Draw 1Kortrijk 1

Goals: 8–3 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

RSC Anderlecht win 57% of their home matches all-time (61 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Anderlecht

Kortrijk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Anderlecht (2–2)

Kortrijk (0–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Anderlecht

Kortrijk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Anderlecht

Kortrijk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Anderlecht	Kortrijk
Points	3	0
xPoints	3.3	2.1
xG per match	2.2	0.74
xGA per match	0.69	2.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.01	0.4

Playing style	Anderlecht	Kortrijk
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.28
Field tilt	0.87	0.25
xT per match	2.3	0.56
xTA per match	0.51	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	32	12
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.42	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.11
Entries into the box per match	32	6
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.59
Passes per match	546	251
Passes against per match	223	529
Switches of play per match	31.8	11.3
Long balls per match	33	26

Set pieces	Anderlecht	Kortrijk
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	10.9	2.1
Corners against per match	0.99	8.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.18	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.81	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.44

Other	Anderlecht	Kortrijk
Throw-in control	0.8	0.69

The goalkeepers	Colin Coosemans (Anderlecht)	Marko Ilić (Kortrijk)
Saves	2	9
Save %	50%	60%
xG prevented	48%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Anderlecht vs Kortrijk according to our model?

The model gives Anderlecht a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Anderlecht 54%, draw 22%, Kortrijk 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.