Rijeka vs Rudeš: Prediction & Odds (2 Aug 2026)

Croatian HNL2 August 202633°22 km/h

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Rijeka

2–1

Rudeš

The model's lean: 1 · Rijeka (83%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.63 (+7 %)

1 · Rijeka 83%X 12%5% Rudeš · 2

83%

12%

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rijeka 83% · Draw 12% · Rudeš 5%

Match prediction: Rijeka – Rudeš

Predicted score matrix

Rudeš →

Rijeka →

0–04.1%

0–12.0%

0–20.6%

0–30.1%

0–4+0.0%

1–010.4%

1–16.0%

1–21.6%

1–30.3%

1–4+0.0%

2–014.1%

2–17.8%

2–22.2%

2–30.4%

2–4+0.1%

3–012.6%

3–17.0%

3–21.9%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.1%

4+–016.2%

4+–19.0%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-014%
2.3-013%
3.1-010%
4.4-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

2,69–0,55

Both teams to score

40%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.25

Over 2,563%

@1.57

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rijeka to win83%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Rijeka to win83%
Over 2.5 goals63%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score40%
Over 2.5 goals63%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.541% probability@2.63Paddy PowerEV+7%
Both teams to score: No60% probability@1.75Paddy PowerEV+5%
1 · Rijeka83% probability@1.25Paddy PowerEV+4%

Bookmaker	1 · Rijeka	X	2 · Rudeš
Paddy Power	EV+ 4% 1.25	5.00	8.00
Pinnacle	1.16	7.87	14.25

Odds updated 2 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Rijeka win since 1 August — the odds have shortened from 1.21 to 1.16 (−5%).

1-5 %

84 %74 %

1.21 → 1.16

X+38 %

19 %9 %

5.69 → 7.87

2+38 %

13 %3 %

10.31 → 14.25

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 01/08/2026 → 02/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rijeka vs Rudeš according to our model?

The model gives Rijeka a 83% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rijeka 83%, draw 12%, Rudeš 5%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 40% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.