Croatian HNL28°18 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Istra 1961Istra 1961
    3–0
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    The model's lean: 1 · Istra 1961 (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Slaven Belupo @ 4.08 (+41 %)

    Istra 1961 – Slaven Belupo · Croatian HNL

    1 · Istra 1961 36%X 29%35% Slaven Belupo · 2
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Istra 1961 36% · Draw 29% · Slaven Belupo 35%

    Match prediction: Istra 1961 – Slaven Belupo

    Predicted score matrix

    Slaven Belupo →
    Istra 1961 →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.5%
    0–18.9%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–112.8%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.4%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,35–1,28
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @2.03EV+4%
    Over 2,549%
    @1.79

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Istra 1961 or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Istra 1961 or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.76

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.43

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Slaven Belupo35% probability@4.08PinnacleEV+41%
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.59PinnacleEV+5%
    • Under 2.551% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+4%
    Bookmaker1 · Istra 1961X2 · Slaven Belupo
    Pinnacle1.88
    EV+ 5%
    3.59
    EV+ 41%
    4.08

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 06:13

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Istra 1961 win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 2.07 to 1.88 (−9%).

    1-9 %
    53 %43 %

    2.07 → 1.88

    X+7 %
    32 %22 %

    3.36 → 3.59

    2+18 %
    30 %20 %

    3.45 → 4.08

    Over 2,5-8 %
    56 %46 %

    1.94 → 1.79

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo according to our model?

    The model gives Istra 1961 a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Istra 1961 36%, draw 29%, Slaven Belupo 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    GoricaGorica
    0–2
    OsijekOsijek
    1 31%X 29%2 39%
    The model called the outcome
    Istra 1961Istra 1961
    2–3
    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    1 33%X 30%2 37%
    The model called the outcome
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    2–0
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    1 75%X 15%2 10%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.