Croatian HNL27°13 km/h

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    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    3–1
    GoricaGorica
    The model's lean: 1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.58 (+12 %)

    Lokomotiva Zagreb – Gorica · Croatian HNL

    1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb 38%X 31%31% Gorica · 2
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Lokomotiva Zagreb 38% · Draw 31% · Gorica 31%

    Match prediction: Lokomotiva Zagreb – Gorica

    Predicted score matrix

    Gorica →
    Lokomotiva Zagreb →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.9%
    0–19.9%
    0–25.6%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–011.7%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–07.7%
    2–18.3%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–13.5%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,27–1,08
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @1.90EV+11%
    Over 2,542%
    @1.92

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (1X)69%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.84

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (1X)69%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.34

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.90

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw31% probability@3.58PinnacleEV+12%
    • 2 · Gorica31% probability@3.59PinnacleEV+12%
    • Under 2.558% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+11%
    Bookmaker1 · Lokomotiva ZagrebX2 · Gorica
    Pinnacle2.01
    EV+ 12%
    3.58
    EV+ 12%
    3.59

    Odds updated 8 Aug, 08:09

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Lokomotiva Zagreb win since 2 August — the odds have shortened from 2.26 to 2.01 (−11%).

    1-11 %
    50 %40 %

    2.26 → 2.01

    X+8 %
    32 %22 %

    3.31 → 3.58

    2+17 %
    33 %23 %

    3.07 → 3.59

    Over 2,50 %
    54 %44 %

    1.93 → 1.92

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Gorica according to our model?

    The model gives Lokomotiva Zagreb a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lokomotiva Zagreb 38%, draw 31%, Gorica 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.