Varaždin vs Hajduk Split: Prediction & Odds (2 Aug 2026)

Croatian HNL2 August 202626°14 km/h

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Varaždin

2–1

Hajduk Split

The model's lean: 2 · Hajduk Split (45%)

1 · Varaždin 27%X 28%45% Hajduk Split · 2

27%

28%

45%

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Varaždin 27% · Draw 28% · Hajduk Split 45%

Match prediction: Varaždin – Hajduk Split

Predicted score matrix

Hajduk Split →

Varaždin →

0–08.2%

0–111.0%

0–28.2%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.0%

1–08.3%

1–112.8%

1–29.0%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.2%

2–04.7%

2–16.8%

2–25.0%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.2%

3–01.7%

3–12.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-28%

Expected goals

1,10–1,45

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.88EV+0%

Over 2,547%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hajduk Split to win45%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Hajduk Split to win45%
Under 2.5 goals53%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals47%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hajduk Split45% probability@2.37PinnacleEV+7%
Under 2.553% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+0%

Bookmaker	1 · Varaždin	X	2 · Hajduk Split
Pinnacle	3.45	2.93	EV+ 7% 2.37

Odds updated 2 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Varaždin win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 4.09 to 3.45 (−16%).

1-16 %

28 %23 %

4.09 → 3.45

X+3 %

35 %30 %

2.85 → 2.93

2+12 %

45 %40 %

2.12 → 2.37

Over 2,5+1 %

52 %47 %

1.92 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 02/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Varaždin vs Hajduk Split according to our model?

The model gives Hajduk Split a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varaždin 27%, draw 28%, Hajduk Split 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.