Croatian HNL28°15 km/h

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    OsijekOsijek
    1–0
    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    The model's lean: 1 · Osijek (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lokomotiva Zagreb @ 4.43 (+41 %)

    Osijek – Lokomotiva Zagreb · Croatian HNL

    1 · Osijek 39%X 29%32% Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Osijek 39% · Draw 29% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%

    Match prediction: Osijek – Lokomotiva Zagreb

    Predicted score matrix

    Lokomotiva Zagreb →
    Osijek →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.0%
    0–19.0%
    0–25.7%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–113.0%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–07.0%
    2–18.5%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–03.1%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,35–1,22
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @1.96EV+3%
    Over 2,547%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Osijek or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.01

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Osijek or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.63

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.53

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Lokomotiva Zagreb32% probability@4.43PinnacleEV+41%
    • Under 2.553% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+3%
    Bookmaker1 · OsijekX2 · Lokomotiva Zagreb
    Pinnacle1.943.16
    EV+ 41%
    4.43

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:13

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Osijek win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 2.22 to 1.94 (−12%).

    1-12 %
    50 %40 %

    2.22 → 1.94

    X+10 %
    36 %26 %

    2.86 → 3.16

    2+20 %
    28 %18 %

    3.70 → 4.43

    Over 2,5-6 %
    55 %45 %

    1.97 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb according to our model?

    The model gives Osijek a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osijek 39%, draw 29%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.