Croatian HNL23°10 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    1–4
    VaraždinVaraždin
    The model's lean: 2 · Varaždin (38%)

    Slaven Belupo – Varaždin · Croatian HNL

    1 · Slaven Belupo 33%X 29%38% Varaždin · 2
    Final score
    1 – 4
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Slaven Belupo 33% · Draw 29% · Varaždin 38%

    Match prediction: Slaven Belupo – Varaždin

    Predicted score matrix

    Varaždin →
    Slaven Belupo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.5%
    0–19.7%
    0–26.2%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–113.2%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.1%
    2–25.0%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–13.4%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,27–1,24
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.92EV+4%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.90

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Varaždin or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.08

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Varaždin or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.66

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.62

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Varaždin38% probability@2.74PinnacleEV+5%
    • Under 2.554% probability@1.92PinnacleEV+4%
    Bookmaker1 · Slaven BelupoX2 · Varaždin
    Pinnacle2.533.41
    EV+ 5%
    2.74

    Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:50

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    40 %35 %

    2.48 → 2.53

    X+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.35 → 3.41

    2+1 %
    37 %32 %

    2.72 → 2.74

    Over 2,5+1 %
    53 %48 %

    1.88 → 1.90

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Slaven Belupo vs Varaždin according to our model?

    The model gives Varaždin a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slaven Belupo 33%, draw 29%, Varaždin 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.