01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Nordsjælland to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Danish SuperligaRight to Dream Park, Farum8°0,6 mm15 km/h
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NordsjællandPossession controlvs
OdensePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Nordsjælland (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · Odense @ 6.40 (+26 %)
Nordsjælland vs Odense · Danish Superliga
1 · Nordsjælland 57%X 23%20% Odense · 2
57%
23%
20%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Nordsjælland – Odense
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The central question for Nordsjælland vs Odense isn't just who will win, but how likely are Nordsjælland to break Odense's defensive resistance given the expected rain? With a 57% probability and a 64% historical home win rate, the hosts appear well-positioned. Yet, the tight expected goals of 1.88 for Nordsjælland against Odense’s 1.16 highlight that while Nordsjælland has the edge, the match may not be an outright goal fest. The rain forecast further complicates matters, likely dampening attacking verve and reducing errors that lead to goals.
The recent head-to-head record between these teams is split evenly, but it’s a small sample of just two matches, making it less indicative than season form and underlying metrics. Nordsjælland's advantage is clearer when examining their xPoints of 13.9 compared to Odense’s 12.1, not to mention their superior xG figures, which point to a more potent attack. Their possession-oriented style should allow them to control the game against an Odense side that prefers pressing high but might struggle in slippery conditions.
In terms of goal expectation, the model leans slightly towards a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11%, followed closely by a 2-1 win for Nordsjælland at 10%. This suggests a competitive match with goals on both sides, aligning with the 59% chance of both teams scoring. However, the odds of over 2.5 goals, also at 59%, could be misleading due to the adverse weather.
For bettors, the perceived value lies with Nordsjælland’s 57% win probability. With the elements and style clash factored in, a 2-1 victory for Nordsjælland feels plausible. Yet caution is advised—rain is a great equalizer, and Odense’s pressing might just muddy the waters enough to keep it closer than expected.
NordsjællandForm WLDWL
League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #1xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Justin JanssenCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
- Nicklas RøjkjærCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
- Ibrahim AdelFxG 0.46 · xT 0.24
OdenseForm DDLWD
League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #2xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Alexander Ahl-HolmströmFxG 0.61 · xT 0.09
- Rasmus FalkCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.23
- Jakob BondeCMxG 0.28 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Nordsjælland – Odense
Predicted score matrix
Odense →
Nordsjælland →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–15.2%
0–23.2%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–08.7%
1–110.7%
1–26.0%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.5%
2–19.8%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.3%
3–16.2%
3–23.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–14.5%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,88–1,16
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.82EV+17%
Over 2,559%
@1.43
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Nordsjælland to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Ibrahim Adel Ali Mohamed Hassan to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Ibrahim Adel Ali Mohamed Hassan to score27%
- Wandepanga Ismahila Ouédraogo to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Odense20% probability@6.40NordicbetEV+26%reference odds
- 2 · Odense20% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nordsjælland | X | 2 · Odense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.49 | 4.30 | EV+ 24% 6.30 |
| Nordicbet | 1.50 | EV+ 1% 4.35 | EV+ 26% 6.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | EV+ 9% 4.69 | EV+ 4% 5.29 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:04
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesNordsjælland 1Draw 0Odense 1
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 4,5)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- FC Nordsjaelland win 64% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nordsjælland
Odense
Nordsjælland (14–10)
Odense (8–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nordsjælland
Odense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nordsjælland
Odense
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Nordsjælland | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 9 |
| xPoints | 13.9 | 12.1 |
| xG per match | 2 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Nordsjælland | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.8 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 517 | 439 |
| Passes against per match | 381 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.3 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Nordsjælland | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.18 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Other | Nordsjælland | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland) | Viljar Myhra (Odense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 17 |
| Save % | 72% | 57% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nordsjælland vs Odense according to our model?
The model gives Nordsjælland a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordsjælland 57%, draw 23%, Odense 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.