01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Midtjylland or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Danish SuperligaMCH Arena, Herning9°1,8 mm16 km/h
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MidtjyllandPossession controlvs
FC KøbenhavnPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Midtjylland (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.71 (+5 %)
Midtjylland vs FC København · Danish Superliga
1 · Midtjylland 39%X 28%33% FC København · 2
39%
28%
33%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Midtjylland – FC København
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Midtjylland's historical dominance over FC København in their recent encounters is intriguing. In six matchups since 2022, the hosts have claimed three victories, suffering just one defeat. However, this head-to-head record is a small sample and must be weighed against current form and expected goals, both of which tell a more balanced story. Midtjylland enter this clash unbeaten in their last nine league outings, a streak that underscores their solidity but must contend with an opponent riding a wave of five consecutive wins.
FC København's recent form is undeniably impressive, but the model interestingly leans towards Midtjylland, offering them a 39% chance of a win, compared to the visitors' 33%. This suggests that the market may be underestimating Midtjylland at home. Despite FC København having the edge in points and expected points, Midtjylland's style of possession control could neutralize the visitors' high press, potentially disrupting their rhythm.
The expected goals for this match are tightly matched, with Midtjylland at 1.44 and København at 1.35. Such a close xG expectation aligns with the most likely scorelines being 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0, hinting at a narrow affair. Both teams to score sits at 57%, and the probability for over 2.5 goals is 53%, suggesting the potential for goals but not a definitive scoring spree.
Given the odds and model probabilities, there seems to be a value angle with Midtjylland. The tight margins suggest a 2-1 scoreline in favor of the hosts, with a slight inclination towards over 2.5 goals if both teams exploit their attacking capacities effectively.
MidtjyllandForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #1xT #4xP/match #6Points #2
Key players
- Friday Ubi EtimFxG 0.47 · xT 0.07
- Darío OsorioRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.44
- Magnus JensenCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
FC KøbenhavnForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #8xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Mohamed ElyounoussiRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.16
- William ClemCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
- Robert SilvaLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Midtjylland – FC København
Predicted score matrix
FC København →
Midtjylland →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–18.0%
0–25.6%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.5%
1–112.3%
1–28.1%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.6%
2–25.8%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.0%
3–14.1%
3–22.8%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,44–1,35
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
–
Over 2,553%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Midtjylland or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gue-Sung Cho to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gue-Sung Cho to score20%
- Thomas Joseph Delaney to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@3.71PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Midtjylland39% probability@2.61PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Midtjylland | X | 2 · FC København |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 2.61 | EV+ 5% 3.71 | 2.50 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:04
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesMidtjylland 3Draw 2FC København 1
Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Midtjylland dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
- Midtjylland have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
- FC Copenhagen come into this round on 5 straight wins.
- Midtjylland win 69% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Midtjylland
FC København
Midtjylland (17–9)
FC København (23–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Midtjylland
FC København
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Midtjylland
FC København
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Midtjylland | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 24 |
| xPoints | 12.4 | 15.4 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Midtjylland | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 321 | 416 |
| Passes against per match | 303 | 408 |
| Switches of play per match | 33 | 31.9 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Midtjylland | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| Other | Midtjylland | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Elias Olafsson (Midtjylland) | Diant Ramaj (FC København) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 13 |
| Save % | 71% | 93% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 90% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Midtjylland vs FC København according to our model?
The model gives Midtjylland a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Midtjylland 39%, draw 28%, FC København 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.