01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Nordsjælland to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Danish SuperligaSydbank Park, Haderslev14°28 km/h
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SønderjyskELow block & directvs
NordsjællandPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Nordsjælland (67%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
SønderjyskE – Nordsjælland · Danish Superliga
1 · SønderjyskE 15%X 18%67% Nordsjælland · 2
15%
18%
67%
Analysis: SønderjyskE – Nordsjælland
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
67% — that's the model's probability for an FC Nordsjaelland victory over Sonderjyske, making this match a rather lopsided affair on paper. The numbers are telling: Nordsjaelland boasts an expected goals tally of 2.23 compared to Sonderjyske's modest 1.00. It's not just xG tilting the scales; FC Nordsjaelland's unbeaten streak of six games in the league illuminates their current form. The model favours Nordsjaelland's possession and high-press style against Sonderjyske's low defence and direct approach, which seems unlikely to stem the tide.
FC Nordsjaelland has shown their pedigree in head-to-head matchups since 2022, winning three out of four against Sonderjyske. Though a small sample, it adds weight to their current superiority. Meanwhile, Sonderjyske has struggled, notching just a single point in the league, a stark contrast to Nordsjaelland's seven. Expected points further underpin this disparity, with Sonderjyske trailing at 4.9 to Nordsjaelland's 6.4.
Sonderjyske's defensive frailties are laid bare with an xGA of 1.4 per match, while FC Nordsjaelland's solid defensive setup is reflected in their xGA of just 0.66. Betting markets have noted this imbalance, and value seekers should take note. Betting on an FC Nordsjaelland win at odds of 1.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet presents a 24% edge according to the model, a rare gem for the discerning punter.
Goals seem likely here, with a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both sides finding the net. Yet, given Nordsjaelland's defensive organisation, a 0-2 victory is plausible, albeit with a nod to the 1-2 possibility. The sharpest angle is undoubtedly the away win at 1.85, a compelling wager with value stamped all over it.
SønderjyskEForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #7xP/match #10Points #12
Key players
- Sefer EminiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
- Bubacarr TambedouLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.04
- Sidi Mohamed Cherif HaidaraCAMxG 0.24 · xT -0.04
NordsjællandForm DWDWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #4
Key players
- Mamadou Lamine SadioFxG 0.53 · xT 0.06
- Justin JanssenCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.21
- Juho LahteenmakiRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: SønderjyskE – Nordsjælland
Predicted score matrix
Nordsjælland →
SønderjyskE →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.2%
0–18.5%
0–29.8%
0–37.3%
0–4+6.9%
1
1–03.7%
1–19.1%
1–29.8%
1–37.3%
1–4+6.9%
2
2–02.0%
2–14.4%
2–24.9%
2–33.7%
2–4+3.5%
3
3–00.7%
3–11.5%
3–21.6%
3–31.2%
3–4+1.2%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-210%
- 2.0-210%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,00–2,23
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.68
Over 2,563%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Nordsjælland to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Hjalte Boe Kling Rasmussen to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Hjalte Boe Kling Rasmussen to score32%
- Sefer Emini to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Nordsjælland67% probability@1.90BetssonEV+27%reference odds
- 2 · Nordsjælland67% probability@1.90NordicbetEV+27%reference odds
- 2 · Nordsjælland67% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · SønderjyskE | X | 2 · Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.70 | 3.85 | EV+ 26% 1.88 |
| Betsson | 3.75 | 3.90 | EV+ 27% 1.90 |
| Nordicbet | 3.75 | 3.90 | EV+ 27% 1.90 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 10:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 1.55 to 1.46 (−6%).
1+1 %
32 %22 %
3.70 → 3.75
X+7 %
30 %20 %
3.65 → 3.90
2-4 %
53 %43 %
1.98 → 1.90
Over 2,5-6 %
68 %58 %
1.55 → 1.46
Betsson · 25 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSønderjyskE 1Draw 0Nordsjælland 3
Goals: 5–10 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- FC Nordsjaelland are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
SønderjyskE
Nordsjælland
SønderjyskE (4–7)
Nordsjælland (3–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
SønderjyskE
Nordsjælland
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
SønderjyskE
Nordsjælland
The teams in numbers
| Performance | SønderjyskE | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 7 |
| xPoints | 4.9 | 6.4 |
| xG per match | 0.82 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.66 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.5 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | SønderjyskE | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.76 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 0.24 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 35 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 26 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 5 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 254 | 603 |
| Passes against per match | 455 | 326 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.9 | 29.6 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 38 |
| Set pieces | SønderjyskE | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 10.8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| Other | SønderjyskE | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Marcus Bundgaard (SønderjyskE) | Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 7 |
| Save % | 63% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 31% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins SønderjyskE vs Nordsjælland according to our model?
The model gives Nordsjælland a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: SønderjyskE 15%, draw 18%, Nordsjælland 67%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.