MVV Maastricht vs Volendam: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie21 August 202617°2,6 mm16 km/h

MVV MaastrichtPossession control

VolendamLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Volendam (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · MVV Maastricht @ 3.95 (+25 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · MVV Maastricht 32%X 24%44% Volendam · 2

32%

24%

44%

Analysis: MVV Maastricht – Volendam

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Six points on the table say MVV Maastricht have the upper hand, yet the model favours FC Volendam with a 44% win probability. It’s an intriguing mismatch between current form and statistical expectation. Volendam's penchant for scoring in 16 consecutive league matches suggests they're an offensive threat, even if their defence has been porous.

MVV Maastricht, though leading in league points, also claims the edge in expected metrics—xG and xPoints—hinting at a more sustainable form. Their possession-based style might stifle Volendam's low block and direct play, particularly as the weather forecast calls for rain, which typically dampens goal opportunities. This match could hinge on who adapts better to slick conditions, with MVV potentially benefitting.

Two matches between these sides since 2023 provide a slim head-to-head dataset that leans slightly toward FC Volendam. However, with MVV's current statistical edges, one might argue the head-to-head weighs less than recent form and expected metrics. Both clubs' expected goals predict a narrow affair—MVV Maastricht 1.30 to FC Volendam's 1.35—signalling a tactical chess match rather than a goalfest.

The model’s inclination towards FC Volendam aligns with a cautious optimism for an away win, but all evidence considered, a scoreline of 1-1 seems the most likely, capturing both the likelihood of goals and the model's slight nod to Volendam. The 50% forecast for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score underscores the balance here, tilting slightly towards a low-scoring draw due to expected rain.

For those seeking value, Bet365 offers FC Volendam to win at odds of 2.50. While not a guarantee, it reflects the model's lean combined with Volendam's scoring streak. If you're riding the analytical edge, this could be the sharpest option in a tightly contested matchup.

MVV Maastricht

Form DDLWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #9xP/match #5Points #2

Key players

Olivier DumontRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.21
Delano AsanteRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
Lennerd DaneelsLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.33

Volendam

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #8xT #10xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Nordin BukalaFxG 0.02 · xT 0.01
Henk VeermanLWxG 0.54 · xT 0.19
Nick DoodemanRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.46

Match prediction: MVV Maastricht – Volendam

Predicted score matrix

Volendam →

MVV Maastricht →

0–07.4%

0–19.1%

0–26.4%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.8%

1–112.7%

1–28.4%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.0%

2–18.1%

2–25.5%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.6%

3–13.5%

3–22.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,35

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.48EV+25%

Over 2,550%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Volendam or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Volendam or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Henk Veerman to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Henk Veerman to score32%
Mawouna Kodjo Amevor to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · MVV Maastricht32% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
1 · MVV Maastricht32% probability@3.95BetssonEV+25%reference odds
1 · MVV Maastricht32% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+25%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · MVV Maastricht	X	2 · Volendam
Betsafe	EV+ 25% 3.95	3.60	1.80
Betsson	EV+ 25% 3.95	3.60	1.80
Nordicbet	EV+ 25% 3.95	3.60	1.80

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:35

Odds movement

1+11 %

27 %22 %

3.55 → 3.95

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.60 → 3.60

2-6 %

53 %48 %

1.92 → 1.80

Over 2,5-1 %

64 %59 %

1.52 → 1.50

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

MVV Maastricht 0Draw 1Volendam 1

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Volendam have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

MVV Maastricht

Volendam

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

MVV Maastricht (5–3)

Volendam (5–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

MVV Maastricht

Volendam

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

MVV Maastricht

Volendam

The teams in numbers

Performance	MVV Maastricht	Volendam
Points	6	3
xPoints	3.5	2.4
xG per match	2.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.43	0.05
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.08	0.03

Playing style	MVV Maastricht	Volendam
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.5
xT per match	1.3	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	20	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.29
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	16	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.71
Passes per match	367	358
Passes against per match	281	340
Switches of play per match	35.5	30.6
Long balls per match	49	39

Set pieces	MVV Maastricht	Volendam
xG from free kicks	0	0.06
Corners per match	2.5	4.6
Corners against per match	5.4	8.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.18	0.65

Other	MVV Maastricht	Volendam
Throw-in control	0.65	0.81

The goalkeepers	Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht)	Roy Johannes Maria Steur (Volendam)
Saves	4	9
Save %	67%	75%
xG prevented	60%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins MVV Maastricht vs Volendam according to our model?

The model gives Volendam a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: MVV Maastricht 32%, draw 24%, Volendam 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.