01 · 2 legs
Safe
- NAC Breda to win69%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Eerste Divisie15°3,4 mm9 km/h
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NAC BredaPossession & high pressvs
Jong AjaxPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · NAC Breda (69%)Best value by the model: 2 · Jong Ajax @ 10.50 (+27 %)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
NAC Breda – Jong Ajax · Eerste Divisie
1 · NAC Breda 69%X 19%12% Jong Ajax · 2
69%
19%
12%
Analysis: NAC Breda – Jong Ajax
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
NAC Breda's 69% probability of victory sets the stage for a clash where the home side appears to have more than a foot in the door. They're sitting pretty with three points, while Ajax Amsterdam B have yet to open their account. Toss in a 2.22 expected goals figure for NAC Breda against Ajax Amsterdam B's 0.97, and the case for the home side becomes even clearer. This is a matchup that leans heavily towards NAC Breda, with the model's most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 echoing that sentiment.
NAC Breda's possession and high press style will likely put Ajax Amsterdam B on the back foot. The young Ajax side prefers possession control, but with both teams to score at 55%, and over 2.5 goals at 62%, there's room for some goals on both ends—though the balance tilts towards NAC Breda. Their 1.8 xG per match is formidable compared to Ajax Amsterdam B's more modest 1.0. Yet, with a small sample size in head-to-head matchups, season form and expected goals should weigh more heavily in predicting the outcome here.
Ajax Amsterdam B will find solace in their possession control strategy, but with an xGA of 1.6, they are not impervious to NAC’s attacking threats. The NAC Breda crowd expects their team to capitalize on Ajax B's defensive vulnerabilities, which nudges the prediction towards a 2-0 or 2-1 home victory. As far as betting goes, these numbers wouldn't deter a savvy punter from steering clear of piling too much on an upset here.
Yet for those with a penchant for long shots, the bookmakers' odds offer some tantalizing value. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet price an Ajax Amsterdam B win at 9.7—significantly higher than the model's 12% probability implies. Although it's far from a sure thing, the 17% edge whispers the allure of an unexpected payoff for the bold.
NAC BredaForm WDDWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #2xP/match #17Points #7
Key players
- Leo GreimlCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.45
- Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
- Rio HillenLBxG 0.08 · xT -0.01
Jong AjaxForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #18xP/match #16Points #19
Key players
- Don Angelo KonaduFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
- Abdellah OuazaneFxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
- Skye VinkFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: NAC Breda – Jong Ajax
Predicted score matrix
Jong Ajax →
NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–13.7%
0–21.9%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–08.9%
1–19.1%
1–24.3%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.2%
2–19.8%
2–24.8%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–07.5%
3–17.3%
3–23.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–07.0%
4+–16.8%
4+–23.3%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,22–0,97
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@3.05EV+17%
Over 2,562%
@1.34
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- NAC Breda to win69%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Paul Gladon to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Paul Gladon to score37%
- Marvyn Muzungu to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Jong Ajax12% probability@10.50BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
- 2 · Jong Ajax12% probability@10.50BetssonEV+27%reference odds
- 2 · Jong Ajax12% probability@10.50NordicbetEV+27%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · NAC Breda | X | 2 · Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.26 | 5.25 | EV+ 27% 10.50 |
| Betsson | 1.26 | 5.25 | EV+ 27% 10.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.26 | 5.25 | EV+ 27% 10.50 |
Odds updated 19 Aug, 01:36
Odds movement
1-2 %
76 %71 %
1.28 → 1.26
X0 %
20 %15 %
5.25 → 5.25
2+13 %
12 %7 %
9.30 → 10.50
Over 2,5-2 %
72 %67 %
1.37 → 1.34
Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
NAC Breda
Jong Ajax
NAC Breda (2–3)
Jong Ajax (1–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
Jong Ajax
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
Jong Ajax
The teams in numbers
| Performance | NAC Breda | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 0 |
| xPoints | 2 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.38 |
| Playing style | NAC Breda | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.79 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 2 | 0.76 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.41 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 492 | 285 |
| Passes against per match | 191 | 327 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.8 | 30.3 |
| Long balls per match | 49 | 33 |
| Set pieces | NAC Breda | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 9 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 2 | 8.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.1 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.22 | 0.67 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.62 |
| Other | NAC Breda | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.87 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda) | Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 6 |
| Save % | 63% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax according to our model?
The model gives NAC Breda a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NAC Breda 69%, draw 19%, Jong Ajax 12%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.