ADO Den Haag vs Groningen: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie16 August 2026Bingoal Stadion, Den Haag20°0,6 mm16 km/h

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ADO Den HaagCounter-attacks & crosses

GroningenPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · ADO Den Haag (54%)

1 · ADO Den Haag 54%X 22%24% Groningen · 2

54%

22%

24%

Analysis: ADO Den Haag – Groningen

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

With a model rating ADO Den Haag at a 54% win probability, this match against Groningen presents a fascinating clash of styles and statistics. ADO Den Haag’s penchant for counterattacking contrasts sharply with Groningen’s control of possession. Though the numbers initially appear to favor Groningen slightly—having secured three points to ADO Den Haag's none and superior metrics in expected goals and points—the bookmakers suggest otherwise.

Groningen edges out ADO Den Haag on paper, boasting an xG of 1.4 per match compared to ADO's 0.9, and a tighter defense with an xGA of 1.5 to ADO’s 2.6. Yet, the most likely outcome, according to the models, isn't as clear-cut. The probability of a 1-1 draw sits at 11%, followed closely by a 2-1 victory for ADO Den Haag. This suggests a closely contested affair, with a high chance of both teams finding the net at 59%.

ADO Den Haag's expected goals of 1.79 outshine Groningen’s 1.22 for this encounter, hinting at potential opportunities on the break against Groningen's more possession-oriented approach. Despite the statistical lean towards ADO Den Haag, this is an illustrative example of how different aspects of football can create tension in prediction markets.

The sharpest angle here, however, lies in the value betting market. With Pinnacle offering ADO Den Haag at odds of 2.79, this represents a significant edge considering the model's 54% probability estimate for a home win. Similarly, Betsafe and Betsson's odds of 2.74 also present valuable opportunities. In a match where ADO Den Haag's chances appear undervalued, the smart money might well be on the home side, potentially overcoming their winless streak in a narrow 2-1 triumph over Groningen.

ADO Den Haag

Form L

League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #12xP/match #16Points #14

Groningen

Form LWWLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #9xP/match #7Points #5

Key players

Thom van BergenCAMxG 0.45 · xT 0.12
Jorg SchreudersRWBxG 0.04 · xT -0.03
David van der WerffRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.47

Match prediction: ADO Den Haag – Groningen

Predicted score matrix

Groningen →

ADO Den Haag →

0–05.2%

0–15.7%

0–23.7%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.6%

1–08.6%

1–111.1%

1–26.5%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.9%

2–19.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.7%

3–15.8%

3–23.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.9%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,79–1,22

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.26

Over 2,558%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

ADO Den Haag to win54%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

ADO Den Haag to win54%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Evan Rottier to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Evan Rottier to score34%
Tika de Jonge to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · ADO Den Haag54% probability@2.79PinnacleEV+51%
1 · ADO Den Haag54% probability@2.78BetsafeEV+50%
1 · ADO Den Haag54% probability@2.78BetssonEV+50%

Bookmaker	1 · ADO Den Haag	X	2 · Groningen
Betsafe	EV+ 50% 2.78	3.44	2.39
Betsson	EV+ 50% 2.78	3.44	2.39
Nordicbet	EV+ 50% 2.78	3.44	2.39
Pinnacle	EV+ 51% 2.79	3.56	2.42

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1+4 %

37 %32 %

2.67 → 2.79

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.60 → 3.56

20 %

41 %36 %

2.43 → 2.42

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

ADO Den Haag

Groningen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

ADO Den Haag (0–2)

Groningen (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

ADO Den Haag

Groningen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

ADO Den Haag

Groningen

The teams in numbers

Performance	ADO Den Haag	Groningen
Points	0	3
xPoints	0.3	1.5
xG per match	0.9	1.4
xGA per match	2.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.03
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.57	0.11

Playing style	ADO Den Haag	Groningen
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.32	0.57
xT per match	0.76	1
xTA per match	0.98	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	24	21
Pressing intensity	0.29	0.29
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	9	16
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.71
Passes per match	349	358
Passes against per match	399	240
Switches of play per match	37.8	29.1
Long balls per match	47	53

Set pieces	ADO Den Haag	Groningen
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	7.2	4.8
Corners against per match	9.2	0.97
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.71	0.2
First touch, defensive corners %	0.89	1

Other	ADO Den Haag	Groningen
Throw-in control	0.84	0.85

The goalkeepers	Kilian Nikiema (ADO Den Haag)	Etienne Vaessen (Groningen)
Saves	2	6
Save %	50%	86%
xG prevented	14%	80%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins ADO Den Haag vs Groningen according to our model?

The model gives ADO Den Haag a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: ADO Den Haag 54%, draw 22%, Groningen 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.