Cambuur vs Excelsior: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie7 August 2026Cambuur Stadion, Leeuwarden19°16 km/h

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Cambuur

0–4

ExcelsiorPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Cambuur (48%)

1 · Cambuur 48%X 24%28% Excelsior · 2

48%

24%

28%

Analysis: Cambuur – Excelsior

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Cambuur's home fortress has been a mixed bag, but they come into this clash with a statistical edge that's hard to ignore. With a model probability of 48% backing them and expected goals tipping slightly in their favor at 1.62 to Excelsior Rotterdam's 1.28, the numbers present a compelling case for the home side. While Cambuur sits behind Excelsior Rotterdam in the league standings with 29 points to the visitors' 38, a deeper dive into expected metrics reveals a more promising picture for the hosts. Cambuur boasts a superior xPoints of 49.7 compared to Excelsior's 46.9, hinting at the potential for an upset.

Excelsior Rotterdam's unbeaten streak over their last five league matches can't be discounted. Their style of possession control has served them well, but Cambuur's propensity for counter-attacks and crosses could exploit the very approach that has been Excelsior's strength. The underlying data shows Cambuur with a slightly better defensive record, conceding an xGA of 1.3 per match versus Excelsior Rotterdam's 1.6. This suggests that while the visitors may control the ball, they could be more susceptible at the back.

A 1-1 draw is statistically the most probable outcome at 12%, followed by Cambuur's 2-1 and 1-0 victories at 9% each. This leans towards a tight affair, but Cambuur's potential to edge it cannot be overlooked, especially when considering the betting value. Pinnacle offers them at odds of 2.53, presenting a 22% value edge according to the model — a substantial temptation for the discerning bettor.

The over 2.5 goals market shows a 55% likelihood, and both teams to score sits at 58%, indicating a match that could well see its fair share of action. However, with both teams having identical xG figures at 1.4, and Cambuur's superior defensive stats, a closely contested match with a slight edge towards the hosts feels likely. A 2-1 victory for Cambuur emerges as the most plausible scenario, with a watchful eye on those juicy home odds from Pinnacle.

Cambuur

Form LLLLW

Excelsior

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #15xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Noah NaujoksFxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
Derensili Sanches FernandesRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.14
Gyan de RegtLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.12

Final score

0 – 4

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Cambuur 48% · Draw 24% · Excelsior 28%

Match prediction: Cambuur – Excelsior

Predicted score matrix

Excelsior →

Cambuur →

0–05.8%

0–16.7%

0–24.5%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.6%

1–111.7%

1–27.3%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.2%

2–19.3%

2–25.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.9%

3–15.0%

3–23.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,62–1,28

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.10

Over 2,555%

@1.77

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cambuur to win48%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cambuur to win48%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Roberts Uldriķis to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Roberts Uldriķis to score21%
Floris Smand to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Cambuur48% probability@2.62PinnacleEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cambuur	X	2 · Excelsior
Pinnacle	EV+ 27% 2.62	3.41	2.73

Odds updated 7 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1+4 %

40 %35 %

2.53 → 2.62

X-7 %

29 %24 %

3.68 → 3.41

2+7 %

38 %33 %

2.56 → 2.73

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 07/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Excelsior Rotterdam are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Excelsior

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Excelsior (43–56)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Excelsior

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Excelsior

The goalkeepers	Cambuur	Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior)
Saves	–	117
Save %	–	72%
xG prevented	–	53%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cambuur

Fixtures, form & tips

Excelsior

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cambuur vs Excelsior according to our model?

The model gives Cambuur a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cambuur 48%, draw 24%, Excelsior 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.