Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie9 August 2026Het Kasteel, Rotterdam25°16 km/h

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Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crosses

0–1

FeyenoordPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Feyenoord (62%)

1 · Sparta Rotterdam 17%X 20%62% Feyenoord · 2

17%

20%

62%

Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam – Feyenoord

Anna Karlsson · 7 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Feyenoord's dominance in the Eredivisie this season is underscored by their impressive unbeaten run of nine league matches. With a model probability of 62% favouring them, a visit to Sparta Rotterdam seems like a continuation of form rather than an upset in the making. The numbers aren't shy about Feyenoord's edge across the board: from points and expected points to expected goals and goals against. This is a team that's playing with the confidence and consistency of champions, a stark contrast to Sparta Rotterdam's more modest ambitions and outcomes.

Sparta Rotterdam, on the other hand, will need to muster all their resilience and tactical acumen if they are to disrupt Feyenoord's rhythm. Their style, reliant on counter-attacks and crosses, will be up against Feyenoord's high press and possession-based approach. The expected goals metric suggests Sparta might find the back of the net (1.14 xG), but containing Feyenoord (2.05 xG) seems a taller order. The head-to-head record since 2022, though showing a win and a draw for Sparta, comes from a small sample size of just four matches and carries less weight than the current form.

Weather isn’t a factor this time, and the model seems to have baked every other aspect into the numbers. The expectation of a goal-heavy match is evident, with a 62% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. A 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline in favour of Feyenoord feels plausible, aligning neatly with the model's most likely outcomes.

For the betting enthusiast, the sharpest angle here is Feyenoord's away win at odds of 1.671 with Pinnacle, presenting a 4% value edge. While no outcome is ever certain in football, this represents a calculated assessment rather than a speculative punt. If you’ve got a betting slip itching for action, this might be the moment to back the visitors.

Sparta Rotterdam

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #13xP/match #13Points #10

Key players

Tobias LauritsenFxG 0.38 · xT 0.01
Shunsuke MitoLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.07
Marvin YoungCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07

Feyenoord

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Anis Hadj MoussaRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.23
Ayase UedaFxG 0.59 · xT 0.00
Quinten TimberCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.20

Final score

0 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 17% · Draw 20% · Feyenoord 62%

Match prediction: Sparta Rotterdam – Feyenoord

Predicted score matrix

Feyenoord →

Sparta Rotterdam →

0–04.4%

0–18.2%

0–28.7%

0–35.9%

0–4+4.9%

1–04.4%

1–19.9%

1–29.9%

1–36.8%

1–4+5.6%

2–02.7%

2–15.5%

2–25.6%

2–33.8%

2–4+3.2%

3–01.0%

3–12.1%

3–22.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,14–2,05

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

–

Over 2,562%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Feyenoord to win62%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Feyenoord to win62%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Tobias van den Elshout to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Tobias Lauritsen to score24%
Ayoni Santos to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sparta Rotterdam	X	2 · Feyenoord
Pinnacle	5.27	4.30	1.60

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Feyenoord win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 1.67 to 1.60 (−4%).

1+18 %

22 %17 %

4.48 → 5.27

X+4 %

25 %20 %

4.12 → 4.30

2-4 %

60 %55 %

1.67 → 1.60

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Sparta Rotterdam 1Draw 1Feyenoord 2

Goals: 5–11 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sparta Rotterdam

Feyenoord

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Sparta Rotterdam (40–62)

Feyenoord (70–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sparta Rotterdam

Feyenoord

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sparta Rotterdam

Feyenoord

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sparta Rotterdam	Feyenoord
Points	43	65
xPoints	44.5	58.4
xG per match	1.3	1.9
xGA per match	1.6	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.12

Playing style	Sparta Rotterdam	Feyenoord
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.4	0.63
xT per match	0.93	1.3
xTA per match	1.2	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	28	28
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.33
Entries into the box per match	12	18
Entries into the box against	17	9
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	332	370
Passes against per match	378	319
Switches of play per match	25.8	20.2
Long balls per match	38	26

Set pieces	Sparta Rotterdam	Feyenoord
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.11
Corners per match	4.5	7.2
Corners against per match	6.6	3.3
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.64

Other	Sparta Rotterdam	Feyenoord
Throw-in control	0.75	0.69

The goalkeepers	Joël Drommel (Sparta Rotterdam)	Timon Wellenreuther (Feyenoord)
Saves	139	89
Save %	70%	67%
xG prevented	61%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sparta Rotterdam

Fixtures, form & tips

Feyenoord

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord according to our model?

The model gives Feyenoord a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Rotterdam 17%, draw 20%, Feyenoord 62%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.