Groningen vs Utrecht: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie9 August 2026Euroborg, Groningen22°16 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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GroningenPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Utrecht (38%)

UtrechtPossession control

1 · Groningen 35%X 27%38% Utrecht · 2

35%

27%

38%

Groningen

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #7xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Thom van BergenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.04
Younes Taha El IdrissiFxG 0.19 · xT 0.2
Jorg SchreudersLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.09

Utrecht

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #9xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Artem StepanovFxG 0.52 · xT 0.03
Souffian El KarouaniLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.2
David MinFxG 0.52 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Groningen – Utrecht

Predicted score matrix

Utrecht →

Groningen →

0–06.0%

0–18.0%

0–26.0%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.5%

1–07.7%

1–112.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.2%

2–26.0%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.7%

3–13.9%

3–22.8%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,41–1,46

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.00

Over 2,555%

@1.81

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Utrecht38% probability@2.93PinnacleEV+11%

Bookmaker	1 · Groningen	X	2 · Utrecht
Pinnacle	2.37	3.39	EV+ 11% 2.93

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: Groningen – Utrecht

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

38% is the model probability tipping in favour of FC Utrecht, and that's where the smart money appears to sit. Though it's a tightrope walk between two possession-centric sides, the undercurrent of FC Utrecht's form and the historical edge they hold over Groningen since 2022 can't be ignored. With three wins out of four encounters in their favour, they seem to have Groningen's number, and the unbeaten streak in their last five league matches only brightens their prospects.

Groningen has its moments, no doubt. They control the ball, but what do they do with it? They're averaging 1.41 expected goals per game, enough to keep them competitive but not necessarily dominant. FC Utrecht, matching Groningen's xG at 1.6 per match, have proven more effective in converting chances when it counts. Despite both teams' tendency to hog possession, it’s FC Utrecht who consistently capitalise on it.

Groningen could hope to outfox FC Utrecht with a 2-1 success — that 8% scoreline probability whispers of a possible upset. However, the more pragmatic bet aligns with the numbers: a 1-2 result seems feasible, with a 9% likelihood. And with the over 2.5 goals sitting at a 55% probability, bettors might find solace in a goal-fest rather than a cagey affair.

Yet, the real angle lies in the betting market. The value is glaring. Pinnacle offers FC Utrecht at odds of 2.93, which, against a model giving them a 38% chance, presents an 11% edge — a rare treat for the discerning punter. This isn’t just a wager on FC Utrecht's ability to nick a victory; it's a calculated nod to the inefficiencies of the bookmaker, offering an enticing opportunity to those who dare to back the numbers.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Groningen 1Draw 0Utrecht 3

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

FC Utrecht are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Groningen

Utrecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Groningen (49–47)

Utrecht (59–45)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Groningen

Utrecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Groningen

Utrecht

The teams in numbers

Performance	Groningen	Utrecht
Points	48	57
xPoints	49.4	60.1
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.14

Playing style	Groningen	Utrecht
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.55	0.42
xT per match	1.2	1.1
xTA per match	0.88	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	29	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.28
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.7
Passes per match	346	331
Passes against per match	339	394
Switches of play per match	20.4	23.6
Long balls per match	33	35

Set pieces	Groningen	Utrecht
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.11
Corners per match	6.1	5.2
Corners against per match	4.9	4.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.58

Other	Groningen	Utrecht
Throw-in control	0.75	0.76

The goalkeepers	Etienne Vaessen (Groningen)	Vasilis Cornelius Barkas (Utrecht)
Saves	71	123
Save %	66%	75%
xG prevented	37%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Groningen vs Utrecht according to our model?

The model gives Utrecht a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Groningen 35%, draw 27%, Utrecht 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.