Groningen vs Utrecht: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie9 August 2026Euroborg, Groningen23°14 km/h

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GroningenPossession control

2–1

UtrechtPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Utrecht (38%)

1 · Groningen 35%X 27%38% Utrecht · 2

35%

27%

38%

Analysis: Groningen – Utrecht

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Four matches, four Utrecht wins since 2022. Yet the head-to-head sample is small and pales next to FC Utrecht's recent five-match unbeaten streak in the Eredivisie. Groningen might hold a slight psychological edge in terms of home advantage, but the model's probabilities tilt towards FC Utrecht's continued supremacy with a 38% chance of victory against Groningen's 35%.

FC Utrecht's edge over Groningen is evident when you delve into the expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics. Both teams average 1.6 xG per match, but Utrecht's defense, allowing just 1.2 xGA per game, surpasses Groningen, who concede 1.4 xGA. This defensive solidity is mirrored in the points (57 to 48) and xPoints (60.1 to 49.4) tables, suggesting that FC Utrecht not only creates but also capitalizes on opportunities more efficiently than their opponents.

Groningen's possession-control style might find a match in FC Utrecht's similar approach, potentially neutralizing each other's strengths. However, weather conditions aren't a factor here, so the model's numbers do not carry that usual caveat of suppressed scoring. Thus, the 55% probability for over 2.5 goals and the 58% likelihood that both teams will find the net seem realistic, leaning towards a more open contest.

FC Utrecht enters this clash with a slight nod from the bookmakers, and there's value at odds of 3.03 with Pinnacle, rated as a 15% edge by the model. Betting on Utrecht to clinch it at these odds represents a positive expected value, a rare find in a balanced matchup. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-2, underline the slender margins, but with Utrecht's form and metrics, a 2-1 win for the visitors seems the sharp angle.

Groningen

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #7xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Thom van BergenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.04
Younes Taha El IdrissiFxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
Jorg SchreudersLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.09

Utrecht

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #9xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Artem StepanovFxG 0.52 · xT 0.03
Souffian El KarouaniLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.20
David MinFxG 0.52 · xT 0.07

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Groningen 35% · Draw 27% · Utrecht 38%

Match prediction: Groningen – Utrecht

Predicted score matrix

Utrecht →

Groningen →

0–06.0%

0–18.0%

0–26.0%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.5%

1–07.7%

1–112.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.2%

2–26.0%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.7%

3–13.9%

3–22.8%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,41–1,46

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.05

Over 2,555%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Utrecht or draw (X2)64%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Utrecht or draw (X2)64%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Artem Stepanov to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Artem Stepanov to score24%
Dani de Wit to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Utrecht38% probability@3.17PinnacleEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Groningen	X	2 · Utrecht
Pinnacle	2.30	3.46	EV+ 20% 3.17

Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:53

Odds movement

1-3 %

43 %38 %

2.37 → 2.30

X+2 %

30 %25 %

3.39 → 3.46

2+8 %

34 %29 %

2.93 → 3.17

Over 2,50 %

55 %50 %

1.81 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Groningen 1Draw 0Utrecht 3

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

FC Utrecht are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Groningen

Utrecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Groningen (49–47)

Utrecht (59–45)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Groningen

Utrecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Groningen

Utrecht

The teams in numbers

Performance	Groningen	Utrecht
Points	48	57
xPoints	49.4	60.1
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.14

Playing style	Groningen	Utrecht
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.55	0.42
xT per match	1.2	1.1
xTA per match	0.88	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	29	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.28
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.7
Passes per match	346	331
Passes against per match	339	394
Switches of play per match	20.4	23.6
Long balls per match	33	35

Set pieces	Groningen	Utrecht
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.11
Corners per match	6.1	5.2
Corners against per match	4.9	4.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.58

Other	Groningen	Utrecht
Throw-in control	0.75	0.76

The goalkeepers	Etienne Vaessen (Groningen)	Vasilis Cornelius Barkas (Utrecht)
Saves	71	123
Save %	66%	75%
xG prevented	37%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Groningen

Fixtures, form & tips

Utrecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Groningen vs Utrecht according to our model?

The model gives Utrecht a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Groningen 35%, draw 27%, Utrecht 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.