NEC vs Telstar: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie8 August 2026Goffertstadion, Nijmegen20°11 km/h

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NECPossession & high press

1–2

TelstarCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · NEC (68%)

1 · NEC 68%X 17%15% Telstar · 2

68%

17%

15%

Analysis: NEC – Telstar

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

NEC have been a scoring machine, finding the net in their last 23 league matches. This relentless attacking form puts them in a commanding position against Telstar. With an expected goals figure of 2.35, it's clear that NEC are anticipated to create plenty of high-quality chances. Their possession-based style should dominate Telstar's counter-attacking approach, especially given Telstar's defensive vulnerabilities revealed by their 1.8 expected goals against per match.

While the head-to-head record since 2022 is limited, featuring just two draws, it's the current form that paints a clearer picture. NEC, sitting on 59 points compared to Telstar's 37, clearly hold the upper hand. More telling is the xPoints tally, where NEC lead 50.4 to 44.6. These figures underpin NEC's superiority, suggesting that their table position is no fluke but a reflection of consistent underlying performances.

68% — that's the probability model's backing for an NEC victory. And at odds of 1.492 with Pinnacle, there's a slight edge for those looking to back the home side. While it's not a massive value play, the consistent performance and attacking prowess of NEC make this a solid choice for those seeking a rational punt.

Over 2.5 goals is heavily favored here (67%), in line with NEC's high xG and Telstar's defensive frailties. Expect a lively affair with NEC likely to dictate the rhythm. Given the attacking profiles and NEC's high press, a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline feels about right. With the weather not mentioned, external conditions shouldn’t suppress scoring opportunities.

In the betting markets, NEC at 1.492 is the standout angle. Their form, xG superiority, and consistent goal-scoring record make them a worthy favorite against a Telstar side that might struggle to contain the hosts' attacking thrust.

NEC

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #3xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Sami OuaissaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.20
Tjaronn CheryRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.10
Kodai SanoCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15

Telstar

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #10xP/match #12Points #14

Key players

Jeff HardeveldLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
Milan ZonneveldFxG 0.52 · xT 0.06
Sem van DuijnFxG 0.23 · xT 0.07

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: NEC 68% · Draw 17% · Telstar 15%

Match prediction: NEC – Telstar

Predicted score matrix

Telstar →

NEC →

0–03.4%

0–13.3%

0–21.9%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.2%

1–18.4%

1–24.5%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.6%

2–08.7%

2–19.6%

2–25.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–06.8%

3–17.6%

3–24.2%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.5%

4+–07.0%

4+–17.7%

4+–24.3%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-18%
4.3-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,35–1,10

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

–

Over 2,567%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

NEC to win68%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

NEC to win68%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella Linssen to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella Linssen to score34%
Danny Bakker to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · NEC68% probability@1.48PinnacleEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · NEC	X	2 · Telstar
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 1.48	4.87	5.96

Odds updated 8 Aug, 08:09

Odds movement

1+6 %

68 %63 %

1.40 → 1.48

X-4 %

22 %17 %

5.08 → 4.87

2-7 %

18 %13 %

6.41 → 5.96

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

NEC 0Draw 2Telstar 0

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

NEC have scored in 23 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

NEC

Telstar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

NEC (77–53)

Telstar (49–55)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

NEC

Telstar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

NEC

Telstar

The teams in numbers

Performance	NEC	Telstar
Points	59	37
xPoints	50.4	44.6
xG per match	1.8	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.23

Playing style	NEC	Telstar
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.7	0.42
xT per match	1.3	0.97
xTA per match	0.93	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	31	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.3
Entries into the box per match	16	13
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.69
Passes per match	348	294
Passes against per match	253	377
Switches of play per match	17.6	24.6
Long balls per match	30	36

Set pieces	NEC	Telstar
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.08
Corners per match	6	4.7
Corners against per match	3.9	6.3
xG per corner	0.06	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.56

Other	NEC	Telstar
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)	Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar)
Saves	107	143
Save %	69%	73%
xG prevented	54%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

NEC

Fixtures, form & tips

Telstar

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins NEC vs Telstar according to our model?

The model gives NEC a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NEC 68%, draw 17%, Telstar 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.