NEC vs Telstar: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie8 August 2026Goffertstadion, Nijmegen19°11 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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NECPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · NEC (68%)

TelstarCounter-attacks & crosses

1 · NEC 68%X 17%15% Telstar · 2

68%

17%

15%

NEC

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #3xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Sami OuaissaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.2
Tjaronn CheryRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.1
Kodai SanoCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15

Telstar

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #10xP/match #12Points #14

Key players

Jeff HardeveldLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
Milan ZonneveldFxG 0.52 · xT 0.06
Sem van DuijnFxG 0.23 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: NEC – Telstar

Predicted score matrix

Telstar →

NEC →

0–03.4%

0–13.3%

0–21.9%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.2%

1–18.4%

1–24.5%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.6%

2–08.7%

2–19.6%

2–25.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–06.8%

3–17.6%

3–24.2%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.5%

4+–07.0%

4+–17.7%

4+–24.3%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-18%
4.3-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,35–1,10

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

–

Over 2,567%

–

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · NEC	X	2 · Telstar
Pinnacle	1.40	5.08	6.41

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: NEC – Telstar

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

NEC have been scoring machines, finding the back of the net in 23 consecutive league matches. This impressive run of form at home, combined with their possession-heavy, high-pressing style, sets the stage for a strong showing against Telstar. The model gives NEC a commanding 68% chance of victory, which feels justified given NEC's offensive firepower, averaging 1.8 xG per match compared to Telstar's 1.4.

Telstar, on the other hand, relies on a counter-attacking style, aiming to exploit any gaps left by NEC's high press. Yet, they've managed only two draws in their last encounters with NEC since 2022, suggesting a struggle to convert defensive stability into victories. While they might be hoping for a breakaway counter, the odds are stacked against them with just a 15% chance of causing an upset.

With NEC expected to score 2.35 goals and Telstar 1.10, the balance tips heavily in favor of the home side. The most likely scorelines of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (9%) reflect a game leaning towards NEC, but with a reasonable expectation for Telstar to snatch a goal given the 61% probability that both teams score. This further supports the over 2.5 goals market, currently pegged at a robust 67%.

NEC's dominance in the points table, with 59 points over Telstar's 37, underpins the argument for a home win. The xPoints tell a similar story, with NEC holding a slight edge at 50.4 against Telstar's 44.6. NEC's superior xGA of 1.3 compared to Telstar's 1.8 further suggests they have the defensive nous to manage the threat of Telstar's counters.

For those eyeing value in the betting market, NEC at odds of 1.47 with Bet365 looks enticing given their form and statistical edge. While it's hardly a guarantee, if you're looking to back a winner, NEC seems the safer bet, with a 2-1 scoreline feeling like the sweet spot.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

NEC 0Draw 2Telstar 0

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

NEC have scored in 23 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

NEC

Telstar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

NEC (77–53)

Telstar (49–55)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

NEC

Telstar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

NEC

Telstar

The teams in numbers

Performance	NEC	Telstar
Points	59	37
xPoints	50.4	44.6
xG per match	1.8	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.23

Playing style	NEC	Telstar
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.7	0.42
xT per match	1.3	0.97
xTA per match	0.93	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	31	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.3
Entries into the box per match	16	13
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.69
Passes per match	348	294
Passes against per match	253	377
Switches of play per match	17.6	24.6
Long balls per match	30	36

Set pieces	NEC	Telstar
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.08
Corners per match	6	4.7
Corners against per match	3.9	6.3
xG per corner	0.06	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.56

Other	NEC	Telstar
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)	Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar)
Saves	107	143
Save %	69%	73%
xG prevented	54%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins NEC vs Telstar according to our model?

The model gives NEC a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NEC 68%, draw 17%, Telstar 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.