AZ Alkmaar – ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar's unbeaten streak now stretches to six matches in the Eredivisie, positioning them as clear favourites against ADO Den Haag. The Dutch side's strength lies in their possession-based approach, a stark contrast to ADO Den Haag's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses. With 52 points on the board compared to ADO Den Haag's mere 29, AZ Alkmaar has more than just form on their side; they have a tangible superiority that should translate into dominance.

ADO Den Haag, however, aren't pushovers by any stretch. Their knack for efficient counter-attacks is underpinned by their comparable xGA of 1.3 per match, suggesting they can hold their own defensively. Intriguingly, while AZ Alkmaar has outscored them, the underlying metrics tell another story. The xPoints reveal a marginal edge to ADO Den Haag with 49.7 to AZ's 49.4, hinting that the visitors have been a tad unlucky. This glimmer of potential tempers the apparent certainty of an Alkmaar victory.

51% of model probabilities tip AZ Alkmaar to come out on top, with the most likely scorelines nodding towards either a 1-1 draw at 11% or a narrow 2-1 win for the home side at 10%. The expected goals tally – AZ Alkmaar's 1.78 to ADO Den Haag's 1.21 – reinforces expectations of a competitive outing, hinting at goals on both sides. Given the 57% probability for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to slot one in, it’s hard to envisage a clean sheet for either goalkeeper.

When it comes to spotting value, the betting markets offer some intriguing angles. While AZ Alkmaar is tipped to edge the contest, Pinnacle’s odds of 6.02 on an ADO Den Haag victory offer a whopping 58% edge according to the model – a speculative punt for those enticed by higher risks. Alternatively, the draw at 4.77 holds a 10% value edge, balancing risk and reward. But perhaps the sharpest play lies in the under 3.5 goals market at 1.645, with a decent 7% edge suggesting a controlled game rather than a goal-fest.