01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AZ Alkmaar to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EredivisieAFAS Stadion, Alkmaar20°13 km/h
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AZ AlkmaarPossession control2–0
ADO Den HaagThe model's lean: 1 · AZ Alkmaar (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · ADO Den Haag @ 6.72 (+77 %)
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie
1 · AZ Alkmaar 51%X 23%26% ADO Den Haag · 2
51%
23%
26%
Analysis: AZ Alkmaar – ADO Den Haag
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
51% is the magic number here. AZ Alkmaar, riding high on a six-match unbeaten streak in the league, have a 51% model-backed chance of securing victory against ADO Den Haag. The home side's consistent form suggests a solid foundation, but the prospect of a surprise result shouldn't be discounted. ADO Den Haag, with a 26% win probability, aren't coming as lambs to the slaughter.
AZ Alkmaar's expected goals figure of 1.78 edges them as favourites, pointing towards a likely scoreline of 2-1 or 1-0. However, the 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome with 11%. The clash is thus predicted to be competitive, with goals on both sides likely — 59% of the model supports both teams finding the net. A 57% lean towards over 2.5 goals suggests a match more open than cagey.
ADO Den Haag, despite being underdogs, bring intrigue to the betting table. The 6.05 odds for an away win with Pinnacle offer a sweet 59% EV+ edge for those with a penchant for risk. Even the draw, at 4.9 odds, presents a 13% value edge. These numbers hint that the betting market might be underestimating Den Haag's potential to disrupt.
Value seekers might also eye the under 3.5 goals market. At 1.653 with Pinnacle, the model rates this outcome at a robust 65%, providing a 7% value edge. Given the tempered scoring probability, this angle aligns with the most likely scorelines and AZ Alkmaar's recent defensive solidity.
In short, while AZ Alkmaar appears the logical choice, the smarter money might be lurking elsewhere. Whether you're swayed by the improbable allure of an ADO Den Haag upset or prefer the cautious lure of under 3.5 goals, the numbers offer compelling whispers.
AZ AlkmaarForm WDDDD
League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #6xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- Troy ParrottFxG 0.46 · xT 0.07
- Peer KoopmeinersCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Sven MijnansCAMxG 0.37 · xT 0.18
ADO Den HaagFinal score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 51% · Draw 23% · ADO Den Haag 26%
Match prediction: AZ Alkmaar – ADO Den Haag
Predicted score matrix
ADO Den Haag →
AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–15.8%
0–23.7%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.6%
1–111.1%
1–26.5%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.0%
2–19.6%
2–25.8%
2–32.4%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.7%
3–15.7%
3–23.5%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–13.8%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,78–1,21
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
–
Over 2,557%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AZ Alkmaar to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Troy Daniel Parrott to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Troy Daniel Parrott to score32%
- Milan Hokke to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · ADO Den Haag26% probability@6.72PinnacleEV+77%reference odds
- X · Draw23% probability@5.06PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- Under 3.565% probability@1.68PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · AZ Alkmaar | X | 2 · ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | EV+ 17% 5.06 | EV+ 77% 6.72 |
Odds updated 8 Aug, 06:09
Odds movement
1-3 %
68 %63 %
1.45 → 1.41
X+6 %
22 %17 %
4.77 → 5.06
2+12 %
17 %12 %
6.02 → 6.72
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar (58–51)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
AZ Alkmaar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
AZ Alkmaar
| The goalkeepers | Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro (AZ Alkmaar) | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 71 | – |
| Save % | 68% | – |
| xG prevented | 50% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag according to our model?
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AZ Alkmaar 51%, draw 23%, ADO Den Haag 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.