PEC Zwolle vs Ajax: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie9 August 2026MAC3PARK Stadion, Zwolle23°13 km/h

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PEC ZwollePossession control

0–2

AjaxPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Ajax (59%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.80 (+10 %)

1 · PEC Zwolle 18%X 23%59% Ajax · 2

18%

23%

59%

Analysis: PEC Zwolle – Ajax

Erik Lindberg · 7 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

AFC Ajax's historical grip over PEC Zwolle cannot be ignored, with four wins and two draws in six meetings since 2022. Yet, in the world of football, a small sample size can often cloak the current realities of form and fortune. PEC Zwolle's possession-oriented approach mirrors that of their more illustrious opponents, but on metrics like expected goals and expected goals against, they remain in AFC Ajax's shadow. The visitors' expected goals per match stand robustly at 1.5 compared to PEC Zwolle's 0.98, while defensively, Ajax are more sound, conceding an xGA of 1.5 to Zwolle's 1.9.

PEC Zwolle, trailing in both points (37 vs 60) and xPoints (33.3 vs 43.7), enter the fray as underdogs, with the model giving them an 18% chance of winning. However, there's a fascinating betting angle with value on the draw at odds of 4.73 with Pinnacle, given a model probability of 23%. The draw emerges as a tempting prospect in a match where possession might cancel out threat.

Still, Ajax's likelihood to stamp their authority is palpable. With most likely scorelines tipping 1-1 and 1-2 at 10% each, and a solid 9% nod toward a 0-2 scoreline, Ajax's attacking prowess appears set to pose problems for PEC Zwolle's leaky defense. The expected goals figures suggest Ajax could breach Zwolle's rearguard more than once. Yet, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, it's the under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.704 with Pinnacle that offers a slight edge, with the model rating it at a 61% probability.

AFC Ajax, with their possession control and superior metrics, are well-placed to secure a 1-2 victory. However, bettors seeking value might lean towards the draw or under 3.5 goals markets, where subtle edges await those willing to tread carefully through the numbers.

PEC Zwolle

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #18xP/match #18Points #15

Key players

Younes NamliRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.19
Koen KostonsFxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
Thijs OostingRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.07

Ajax

Form DLDWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #8xP/match #14Points #3

Key players

Mika GodtsLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.25
Wout WeghorstFxG 0.35 · xT -0.03
Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.28

Final score

0 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: PEC Zwolle 18% · Draw 23% · Ajax 59%

Match prediction: PEC Zwolle – Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Ajax →

PEC Zwolle →

0–04.5%

0–18.4%

0–28.9%

0–36.1%

0–4+5.0%

1–04.4%

1–19.9%

1–29.9%

1–36.8%

1–4+5.6%

2–02.6%

2–15.4%

2–25.5%

2–33.8%

2–4+3.1%

3–01.0%

3–12.0%

3–22.0%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,11–2,05

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ajax to win59%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ajax to win59%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Kasper Dolberg Rasmussen to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Kasper Dolberg Rasmussen to score40%
Simon Graves Jensen to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw23% probability@4.80PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
Under 3.561% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
1 · PEC Zwolle18% probability@5.72PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · PEC Zwolle	X	2 · Ajax
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 5.72	EV+ 10% 4.80	1.50

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1+3 %

19 %14 %

5.55 → 5.72

X+4 %

23 %18 %

4.61 → 4.80

2+1 %

66 %61 %

1.49 → 1.50

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

PEC Zwolle 0Draw 2Ajax 4

Goals: 4–11 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Ajax dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

PEC Zwolle

Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

PEC Zwolle (44–71)

Ajax (65–42)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PEC Zwolle

Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PEC Zwolle

Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	PEC Zwolle	Ajax
Points	37	60
xPoints	33.3	43.7
xG per match	0.98	1.5
xGA per match	1.9	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.18

Playing style	PEC Zwolle	Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.37	0.55
xT per match	0.75	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	22	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.3
Entries into the box per match	10	15
Entries into the box against	16	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.76
Passes per match	310	455
Passes against per match	395	336
Switches of play per match	18.3	25.5
Long balls per match	28	30

Set pieces	PEC Zwolle	Ajax
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.04
Corners per match	3.6	4.8
Corners against per match	6.1	5
xG per corner	0.05	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.61

Other	PEC Zwolle	Ajax
Throw-in control	0.7	0.81

The goalkeepers	Tom de Graaff (PEC Zwolle)	Vitezslav Jaros (Ajax)
Saves	129	62
Save %	67%	75%
xG prevented	50%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

PEC Zwolle

Fixtures, form & tips

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins PEC Zwolle vs Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Ajax a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PEC Zwolle 18%, draw 23%, Ajax 59%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.