PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie8 August 2026Philips Stadion, Eindhoven21°11 km/h

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PSV EindhovenPossession & high press

2–2

Fortuna SittardLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · PSV Eindhoven (80%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 8.93 (+12 %)

1 · PSV Eindhoven 80%X 13%7% Fortuna Sittard · 2

80%

13%

Analysis: PSV Eindhoven – Fortuna Sittard

Sofia Andersson · 7 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Thirty consecutive league matches with a goal scored. That's the current streak PSV Eindhoven carries into their clash against Fortuna Sittard, and it serves as a testament to their attacking prowess. With a high-octane possession and press style, PSV is like a steamroller in the Eredivisie, flattening opponents with consistent and relentless pressure. Fortuna Sittard, with their defensive and direct approach, will have to weather the storm at Philips Stadion.

Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, looks to mount a defiance against a side they’ve yet to overcome in their last eight encounters since 2022 — but history doesn't favor them. In a small sample size that includes six wins and two draws for PSV Eindhoven, Sittard seems to be cast in the role of the perennial underdog. This is already baked into the odds, with PSV Eindhoven pegged as clear 80% favorites by the model.

Numbers tell their own story. The expected goals paint a picture of potential dominance: PSV Eindhoven at 2.62 against Fortuna Sittard's 0.87. With the expected goals model and the betting markets both leaning heavily towards a PSV victory, the most likely scorelines reflect a 2-0, 2-1, or 3-0 win for the home side. Although the wind and rain are not factors this time, PSV’s relentless form suggests a high-scoring affair, aligning with the 68% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Fortuna Sittard's struggle is clear in their expected goals against (1.7 per match), which is significantly higher than PSV's at 1.0. The stage is set for PSV to exploit these defensive frailties, continuing their impressive run. Yet, for punters seeking value, the draw presents an enticing opportunity. Pinnacle offers the draw at odds of 8.4, with a 13% probability according to the model, suggesting a 5% edge — a value bet for those willing to wager on Fortuna Sittard pulling off the unexpected.

PSV Eindhoven

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Ricardo PepiFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
Joey VeermanCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
Couhaib DriouechLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.13

Fortuna Sittard

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #17xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Kaj SierhuisFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
Mohamed Amine IhattarenFxG 0.31 · xT 0.20
Paul GladonFxG 0.59 · xT 0.03

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 80% · Draw 13% · Fortuna Sittard 7%

Match prediction: PSV Eindhoven – Fortuna Sittard

Predicted score matrix

Fortuna Sittard →

PSV Eindhoven →

0–03.2%

0–12.5%

0–21.2%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–07.8%

1–17.2%

1–23.0%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–010.4%

2–19.1%

2–24.0%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–09.1%

3–18.0%

3–23.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–011.2%

4+–19.8%

4+–24.3%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.3-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

2,62–0,87

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

–

Over 2,568%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

PSV Eindhoven to win80%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

PSV Eindhoven to win80%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Ricardo Daniel Pepi to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Ricardo Daniel Pepi to score36%
Philip Brittijn to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw13% probability@8.93PinnacleEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · PSV Eindhoven	X	2 · Fortuna Sittard
Pinnacle	1.16	EV+ 12% 8.93	12.49

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

10 %

83 %78 %

1.17 → 1.16

X+5 %

13 %8 %

8.53 → 8.93

2+13 %

11 %6 %

11.04 → 12.49

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

PSV Eindhoven 6Draw 2Fortuna Sittard 0

Goals: 22–10 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

PSV Eindhoven dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 4.0 goals per meeting on average.
PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
PSV Eindhoven have scored in 30 consecutive league matches.
PSV Eindhoven win 82% of their home matches all-time (68 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

PSV Eindhoven

Fortuna Sittard

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

PSV Eindhoven (101–45)

Fortuna Sittard (49–63)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PSV Eindhoven

Fortuna Sittard

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PSV Eindhoven

Fortuna Sittard

The teams in numbers

Performance	PSV Eindhoven	Fortuna Sittard
Points	84	39
xPoints	58.9	46.9
xG per match	2.3	1.4
xGA per match	1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.2

Playing style	PSV Eindhoven	Fortuna Sittard
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.7	0.39
xT per match	1.5	0.76
xTA per match	0.78	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	29	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.29
Entries into the box per match	20	10
Entries into the box against	11	16
Pass completion %	0.82	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.7
Passes per match	492	287
Passes against per match	284	382
Switches of play per match	29.4	15.2
Long balls per match	35	28

Set pieces	PSV Eindhoven	Fortuna Sittard
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	7.2	4.3
Corners against per match	4.5	6.7
xG per corner	0.08	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.6

Other	PSV Eindhoven	Fortuna Sittard
Throw-in control	0.76	0.69

The goalkeepers	Matej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven)	Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard)
Saves	85	95
Save %	68%	71%
xG prevented	51%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

PSV Eindhoven

Fixtures, form & tips

Fortuna Sittard

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard according to our model?

The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 80% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PSV Eindhoven 80%, draw 13%, Fortuna Sittard 7%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.