EredivisiePhilips Stadion, Eindhoven21°10 km/hUpdated
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PSV EindhovenPossession & high press
Fortuna SittardLow block & directPSV Eindhoven – Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven- Ricardo PepiFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
- Joey VeermanCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
- Couhaib DriouechLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.13
Fortuna Sittard- Kaj SierhuisFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
- Mohamed Amine IhattarenFxG 0.31 · xT 0.2
- Paul GladonFxG 0.59 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: PSV Eindhoven – Fortuna Sittard
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.3-09%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.1-08%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,5Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw13% probability@8.53PinnacleEV+7%
| Bookmaker | 1 · PSV Eindhoven | X | 2 · Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.17 | EV+ 7% 8.53 | 11.04 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: PSV Eindhoven – Fortuna Sittard
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Thirty consecutive league matches. That's how many games PSV Eindhoven have managed to find the back of the net, and this fixture against Fortuna Sittard doesn't look like it will break their streak. PSV Eindhoven's high-press, possession-based style is expected to overwhelm Fortuna Sittard's low block and direct approach, a pattern that has left Fortuna winless in their last eight encounters, with six wins for PSV and two draws.
PSV Eindhoven's dominance is not just historical but recent, too. They remain unbeaten in their last six league matches, and their attacking power is underscored by an expected goals figure of 2.62 for this clash. While Fortuna Sittard will aim to exploit any defensive lapses with their direct play, their expected goals of 0.87 suggests they’ll likely struggle to break through.
Fortuna Sittard might want to brace themselves for a tough outing. Given the probabilities and the compelling historical record, a scoreline of 2-0 or 3-0 in favor of PSV Eindhoven seems the most plausible. The meeting prefers a high-scoring affair, with a robust 4.0 goals per clash on average. This aligns with the 68% likelihood of seeing over 2.5 goals, pointing towards a potentially entertaining showdown, albeit one where PSV is expected to run the show.
For fans of value betting, the real edge lies in the draw market. Pinnacle offers the draw at odds of 8.53, which, given a model probability of 13%, offers a noteworthy 7% edge. While it's a long shot when facing the might of PSV, those inclined towards a more speculative punt might find this underdog value too tempting to ignore.
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesHead-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- PSV Eindhoven dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.0 goals per meeting on average.
- PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have scored in 30 consecutive league matches.
- PSV Eindhoven win 82% of their home matches all-time (68 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 84 | 39 |
| xPoints | 58.9 | 46.9 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.7 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 0.76 |
| xTA per match | 0.78 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 492 | 287 |
| Passes against per match | 284 | 382 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.4 | 15.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 28 |
| Set pieces | PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 7.2 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.6 |
| Other | PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Matej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven) | Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 85 | 95 |
| Save % | 68% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard according to our model?
The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 80% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PSV Eindhoven 80%, draw 13%, Fortuna Sittard 7%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.