01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Go Ahead Eagles or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
EredivisieDe Adelaarshorst, Deventer18°12 km/h
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Go Ahead EaglesBalanced & physical4–1
Willem IIThe model's lean: 1 · Go Ahead Eagles (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Willem II @ 4.83 (+65 %)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II · Eredivisie
1 · Go Ahead Eagles 41%X 25%34% Willem II · 2
41%
25%
34%
Analysis: Go Ahead Eagles – Willem II
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
With model probabilities tilting slightly towards Go Ahead Eagles at 41%, there's an intriguing clash brewing in the Eredivisie as they face Willem II. The expected goals subtly nod to a potential Go Ahead Eagles edge, registering at 1.62 compared to Willem II’s 1.40, yet the predictions are hardly lopsided. The 1-1 scoreline, pegged at 11% likelihood, underscores the competitive nature of this encounter.
Go Ahead Eagles have had a mixed bag of results in their limited head-to-head history with Willem II, splitting the two games since 2022 with one win each. This small sample size doesn’t offer much weight against the current form and expected goals, which suggest this match could tilt in their favor, possibly reflecting in a 2-1 scoreline. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 58%, indicating a likely open affair, and with both teams to score at 61%, defenses might not reign supreme.
Willem II, carrying a potential value play in the betting markets, become especially intriguing with Pinnacle offering odds of 4.69. This is a substantial 60% edge above the model’s 34% rating of an away victory. Despite being the less favored team, there's a compelling argument for value seekers to consider them, especially given the unpredictable nature of football.
A draw is another outcome peppered with value, rated at 25% by the model with odds of 4.14 on Pinnacle, providing a modest 4% edge. While not as lucrative as backing Willem II, it's a safer hedge against the uncertainties of a tightly matched contest.
Given the numbers, a 2-1 victory for Go Ahead Eagles seems the most plausible outcome, while the over 2.5 goals lean cannot be ignored. However, for those with a betting brain, Willem II at odds of 4.69 might just be the most tantalizing gamble on offer.
Go Ahead EaglesForm DDDLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #12xP/match #17Points #12
Key players
- Melle MeulensteenCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.08
- Jakob Breum MartinsenCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
- Gerrit NauberCBxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
Willem IIForm LDLLD
Key players
- Jesse BoschRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
- Amine LachkarCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
- Jeremy BokilaFxG 0.26 · xT 0.04
Final score
4 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Go Ahead Eagles 41% · Draw 25% · Willem II 34%
Match prediction: Go Ahead Eagles – Willem II
Predicted score matrix
Willem II →
Go Ahead Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–16.6%
0–24.8%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.6%
1–111.4%
1–27.8%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–19.0%
2–26.3%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.8%
3–23.4%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.8%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,62–1,40
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
–
Over 2,558%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Go Ahead Eagles or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson to score25%
- Calvin Twigt to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Willem II34% probability@4.83PinnacleEV+65%reference odds
- X · Draw25% probability@4.15PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Go Ahead Eagles | X | 2 · Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | EV+ 4% 4.15 | EV+ 65% 4.83 |
Odds updated 8 Aug, 06:09
Odds movement
1+4 %
60 %55 %
1.61 → 1.67
X-1 %
25 %20 %
4.19 → 4.15
20 %
22 %17 %
4.83 → 4.83
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesGo Ahead Eagles 1Draw 0Willem II 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Go Ahead Eagles
Willem II
Go Ahead Eagles (54–53)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Go Ahead Eagles
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Go Ahead Eagles
| The goalkeepers | Jari De Busser (Go Ahead Eagles) | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 149 | – |
| Save % | 75% | – |
| xG prevented | 52% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II according to our model?
The model gives Go Ahead Eagles a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Go Ahead Eagles 41%, draw 25%, Willem II 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.