EredivisieVan Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam23°5,7 mm11 km/h

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    ExcelsiorExcelsiorPossession control
    vs
    PSV EindhovenPSV EindhovenPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · PSV Eindhoven (68%)

    Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

    1 · Excelsior 13%X 19%68% PSV Eindhoven · 2

    Analysis: Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    PSV Eindhoven is on a roll, having scored in 31 consecutive league matches. They've been relentless, pressing high and controlling possession, and they come into this fixture as the clear favorites. A whopping 68% chance of a PSV win, according to the model, paints a pretty clear picture. But don't sleep on Excelsior Rotterdam; they're unbeaten in their last six league matches, defying expectations with a controlled possession style.

    The most likely scorelines, 1-2 and 0-2, suggest goals are on the menu. The expected goals tally of Excelsior Rotterdam at 1.15 and PSV Eindhoven at 2.58 reflects this, with a significant 72% chance for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is not far behind at 63%. While history might not weigh heavily here—just two head-to-head matches since 2022 with PSV winning both—it does hint at PSV's dominance.

    Excelsior Rotterdam boasts slight edges in points and expected points this season, but these numbers come from a small sample size and are less reliable than the broader form and xG trends. Still, their unbeaten streak suggests they won't be a pushover, especially with their ability to control the game with possession. Yet, PSV's high press might just crack that defensive setup, especially if Excelsior is forced to chase the game.

    With Pinnacle, Betsafe, and Betsson offering a juicy value at odds of 1.625 and 1.62 for a PSV win, the smart money swings towards the away side. This represents an expected value edge of 10-11%, according to the model. In a game expected to be open with chances at both ends, it looks like PSV Eindhoven will come out on top, likely with a 2-1 victory.

    ExcelsiorExcelsior
    Form WWDWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #8xP/match #3Points #1
    Key players
    • Noah NaujoksFxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
    • Derensili Sanches FernandesRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.14
    • Gyan de RegtLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
    PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
    Form WDWWD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #5xP/match #5Points #8
    Key players
    • Ricardo PepiFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
    • Joey VeermanCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
    • Couhaib DriouechLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.13

    Match prediction: Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven

    Predicted score matrix

    PSV Eindhoven →
    Excelsior →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.6%
    0–16.0%
    0–28.0%
    0–36.8%
    0–4+8.2%
    1
    1–02.6%
    1–17.3%
    1–29.2%
    1–37.9%
    1–4+9.4%
    2
    2–01.6%
    2–14.1%
    2–25.3%
    2–34.6%
    2–4+5.4%
    3
    3–00.6%
    3–11.6%
    3–22.0%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+2.1%
    4+
    4+–00.2%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-29%
    2. 2.0-28%
    3. 3.1-38%
    4. 4.1-17%
    5. 5.0-37%
    Expected goals
    1,15–2,58
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,7
    Under 2,528%
    @3.20
    Over 2,572%
    @1.35

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • PSV Eindhoven to win68%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    62%

    Fair odds

    1.62

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • PSV Eindhoven to win68%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Ruben van Bommel to score30%

    Combined probability

    16%

    Fair odds

    6.27

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Ruben van Bommel to score30%
    • Lennard Hartjes to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    4%

    Fair odds

    27.45

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · PSV Eindhoven68% probability@1.62BetsafeEV+10%
    • 2 · PSV Eindhoven68% probability@1.62BetssonEV+10%
    • 2 · PSV Eindhoven68% probability@1.62NordicbetEV+10%
    Bookmaker1 · ExcelsiorX2 · PSV Eindhoven
    Betsafe4.834.11
    EV+ 10%
    1.62
    Betsson4.834.11
    EV+ 10%
    1.62
    Nordicbet4.834.11
    EV+ 10%
    1.62
    Paddy Power4.504.33
    EV+ 5%
    1.53
    Pinnacle5.104.18
    EV+ 9%
    1.60

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:35

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    21 %16 %

    4.85 → 5.10

    X+4 %
    25 %20 %

    4.03 → 4.18

    2-3 %
    61 %56 %

    1.65 → 1.60

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Excelsior 0Draw 0PSV Eindhoven 2
    Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Excelsior Rotterdam are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    • PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    • PSV Eindhoven have scored in 31 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Excelsior
    PSV Eindhoven
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Excelsior (4–0)
    PSV Eindhoven (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Excelsior
    Rick Meissen: 53 passningar, xT 0.01MeissenJan Plug: 50 passningar, xT 0PlugStijn van Gassel: 44 passningar, xT 0.14GasselLennard Hartjes: 34 passningar, xT -0.04HartjesSimon Janssen: 31 passningar, xT 0.38JanssenNolan Martens: 31 passningar, xT 0.03MartensIrakli Yegoian: 27 passningar, xT 0.49YegoianDaniël van Vianen: 24 passningar, xT -0.06VianenNoah Naujoks: 14 passningar, xT 0.22NaujoksGyan de Regt: 11 passningar, xT 0.01RegtDavid Garden: 9 passningar, xT 0Garden
    PSV Eindhoven
    Mauro Jaqueson Júnior Ferreira dos Santos: 118 passningar, xT 0.11SantosRyan Flamingo: 107 passningar, xT 0.35FlamingoNoah Fernandez: 105 passningar, xT 0.24FernandezIvan Perišić: 78 passningar, xT 0.4PerišićArmando Obispo: 73 passningar, xT 0.08ObispoPaul Wanner: 49 passningar, xT 0.05WannerRuben van Bommel: 30 passningar, xT 0.11BommelMatej Kovar: 29 passningar, xT 0.06KovarSven Mijnans: 25 passningar, xT -0.04MijnansGuus Til: 21 passningar, xT 0.16TilAmir Bouhamdi: 17 passningar, xT -0.03Bouhamdi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Excelsior
    Rick Meissen: 53 passningar, xT 0.01MeissenJan Plug: 50 passningar, xT 0PlugStijn van Gassel: 44 passningar, xT 0.14GasselLennard Hartjes: 34 passningar, xT -0.04HartjesSimon Janssen: 31 passningar, xT 0.38JanssenNolan Martens: 31 passningar, xT 0.03MartensIrakli Yegoian: 27 passningar, xT 0.49YegoianDaniël van Vianen: 24 passningar, xT -0.06VianenNoah Naujoks: 14 passningar, xT 0.22NaujoksGyan de Regt: 11 passningar, xT 0.01RegtDavid Garden: 9 passningar, xT 0Garden
    PSV Eindhoven
    Mauro Jaqueson Júnior Ferreira dos Santos: 118 passningar, xT 0.11SantosRyan Flamingo: 107 passningar, xT 0.35FlamingoNoah Fernandez: 105 passningar, xT 0.24FernandezIvan Perišić: 78 passningar, xT 0.4PerišićArmando Obispo: 73 passningar, xT 0.08ObispoPaul Wanner: 49 passningar, xT 0.05WannerRuben van Bommel: 30 passningar, xT 0.11BommelMatej Kovar: 29 passningar, xT 0.06KovarSven Mijnans: 25 passningar, xT -0.04MijnansGuus Til: 21 passningar, xT 0.16TilAmir Bouhamdi: 17 passningar, xT -0.03Bouhamdi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
    Points31
    xPoints2.21.6
    xG per match2.72.4
    xGA per match0.70.59
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.09
    Playing styleExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.660.87
    xT per match1.31.7
    xTA per match0.70.25
    Won balls, offensive half3616
    Pressing intensity0.210.25
    Pressing efficiency0.310.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.26
    Entries into the box per match1320
    Entries into the box against88
    Pass completion %0.750.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.79
    Passes per match369703
    Passes against per match335167
    Switches of play per match37.957.2
    Long balls per match5351
    Set piecesExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match8.49.2
    Corners against per match5.30
    xG per corner0.070.01
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.56
    First touch, defensive corners %10
    OtherExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
    Throw-in control0.810.79
    The goalkeepersRick Meissen (Excelsior)Matej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven)
    Saves24
    Save %100%67%
    xG prevented100%52%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven according to our model?

    The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Excelsior 13%, draw 19%, PSV Eindhoven 68%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

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    0–4
    ExcelsiorExcelsior
    1 48%X 24%2 28%
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    PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
    2–2
    Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
    1 80%X 13%2 7%
    The model missed the outcome
    Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead Eagles
    4–1
    Willem IIWillem II
    1 41%X 25%2 34%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.