Twente vs PEC Zwolle: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Eredivisie16 August 2026De Grolsch Veste, Enschede21°0,6 mm13 km/h

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Twente

PEC ZwolleLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Twente (78%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.30 (+19 %)

1 · Twente 78%X 14%8% PEC Zwolle · 2

78%

14%

Analysis: Twente – PEC Zwolle

Oscar Nilsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Three consecutive defeats have left PEC Zwolle looking vulnerable, as they prepare to face a Twente Enschede FC side with a commanding 78% probability of victory. The expected goals tally is telling: Twente Enschede FC are predicted to find the net 2.43 times compared to PEC Zwolle's paltry 0.86. These figures suggest a likely scenario where Zwolle will struggle to penetrate Twente's defense, while Twente dominate in attack.

Twente Enschede FC's home record casts a formidable shadow over PEC Zwolle's chances. Winning 57% of their matches on home turf since 2022, Twente have established themselves as a tough nut to crack. Yet, despite PEC Zwolle's recent poor form, the historical head-to-head is a curious wrinkle. With only four encounters since 2022, this small sample tips its hat towards Zwolle, who have managed to dodge defeat in three matches against Twente. But history may not repeat itself given the current form.

Numbers like 2-0 (11% probability) and 3-0 (9%) float as the most likely scorelines, encapsulating Twente's attacking potential. However, with the match possibly dogged by rain and strong winds, which historically suppress goals, the model sees significant value in the under markets. Paddy Power offers under 3.5 goals at 1.95 odds, with the underlying model pinpointing a 58% probability (14% edge), making it a sharp angle for bettors.

The over/under 2.5 goals market leans towards 'over' at 64%, though the smart money might eye the under 3.5 due to the weather. There's even juicier value on under 2.5 goals at 3.3 odds (19% edge) for those who like a bit more risk. As the wind howls, the sharpest angle appears in these under markets, where value meets probability head-on.

Twente

Form DDWLL

Key players

Wout WeghorstFxG 0.58 · xT 0.00
Max BrunsCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
Robin PröpperCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05

PEC Zwolle

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #14xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Tobias Sommer SørensenFxG 0.25 · xT 0.01
Simon GravesCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
Ryan Jared ThomasFxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Twente – PEC Zwolle

Predicted score matrix

PEC Zwolle →

Twente →

0–04.0%

0–13.0%

0–21.4%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.9%

1–18.0%

1–23.3%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.0%

2–19.5%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.9%

3–17.7%

3–23.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–09.6%

4+–18.3%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.1-09%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,43–0,86

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@3.30EV+9%

Over 2,564%

@1.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Twente to win78%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Twente to win78%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score40%
Ryan Jared Thomas to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.536% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+19%
Under 1.516% probability@7.50Paddy PowerEV+19%
Under 3.558% probability@1.95Paddy PowerEV+14%

Bookmaker	1 · Twente	X	2 · PEC Zwolle
Betfair Exchange	1.28	6.00	9.40
Betsafe	1.24	5.67	11.45
Betsson	1.24	5.67	11.45
Nordicbet	1.24	5.67	11.45
Paddy Power	1.22	6.00	8.50
Pinnacle	1.20	7.05	10.85

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

10 %

80 %75 %

1.21 → 1.20

X0 %

16 %11 %

7.02 → 7.05

2+3 %

12 %7 %

10.56 → 10.85

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Twente 0Draw 3PEC Zwolle 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

PEC Zwolle have lost 3 in a row.
Twente Enschede FC win 57% of their home matches all-time (35 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Twente

PEC Zwolle

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Twente (0–1)

PEC Zwolle (0–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Twente

PEC Zwolle

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Twente

PEC Zwolle

The goalkeepers	Lars Unnerstall (Twente)	Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle)
Saves	3	4
Save %	75%	67%
xG prevented	59%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Twente vs PEC Zwolle according to our model?

The model gives Twente a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Twente 78%, draw 14%, PEC Zwolle 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.