Burnley vs Middlesbrough: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship2 September 2026 21:00 CESTTurf Moor, Burnley16°16,1 mm20 km/h

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BurnleyBalanced & physical

MiddlesbroughPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Middlesbrough (47%)

1 · Burnley 28%X 25%47% Middlesbrough · 2

28%

25%

47%

Analysis: Burnley – Middlesbrough

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT CONTAINS ERRORS:

1. The paragraph on underlying metrics conflates the match's expected goals (Burnley 1.04, Middlesbrough 1.53) with the season-long "xG per match" statistic (Burnley 1.3, Middlesbrough 2.2), incorrectly labeling the match expected goals as xG per match.

2. The over/under description is backwards: Over 2.5 goals is 47%, meaning Under 2.5 is 53%, not 47%.

3. The betting odds "2.10 with Bet365" are not supported by any provided fact and appear fabricated.

Corrected text:

With Burnley scoring in eight consecutive league matches, their encounter with Middlesbrough might seem ripe for goals. However, the impending 19.8 mm of rain could dampen offensive ambitions, pulling the contest into a more cautious battleground. The market leans towards Middlesbrough, giving them a solid 47% chance of taking all three points, compared to Burnley's 28% probability of a home win. These figures reflect the visitors' superior underlying metrics this season.

The hosts are on the back foot statistically: they lag behind Middlesbrough in both expected goals and points, with the visitors boasting 2.2 xG per match this season against Burnley's 1.3, and in this specific match the model projects 1.53 expected goals for Middlesbrough against Burnley's 1.04. This disparity suggests that Boro's possession-oriented style could dominate the flow, keeping Burnley's opportunities scarce. Despite Burnley's all-time home win rate of 58%, their recent form and Middlesbrough's tactical prowess might tilt this encounter away from the Turf Moor faithful.

While the head-to-head record since 2023 is a small two-match sample, a pair of draws signal a potential for a tight contest. Yet, Middlesbrough's advantage in expected goals against (1.1 xGA per match compared to Burnley's 2.0) underscores a defensive solidity likely to withstand Burnley's physical edge. A 1-1 draw tops the model's most likely scorelines at 13%, but with the visitors' form, a 0-1 victory for Boro at 11% becomes plausible.

With Over 2.5 goals sitting at 47% (and Under 2.5 therefore at 53%), the defensive metrics and weather conditions point to a lower-scoring affair. The model's confidence leans toward Middlesbrough taking the win.

Burnley

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #22xT #7xP/match #22Points #22

Key players

Zian FlemmingFxG 0.94 · xT 0.04
Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.21
Marcus EdwardsRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.28

Middlesbrough

Form DDWLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #3xP/match #5Points #6

Key players

Callum BrittainRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
William LankshearFxG 1.05 · xT -0.01
Luke AylingCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.31

Match prediction: Burnley – Middlesbrough

Predicted score matrix

Middlesbrough →

Burnley →

0–08.0%

0–111.4%

0–29.0%

0–34.6%

0–4+2.5%

1–07.6%

1–112.5%

1–29.3%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.1%

2–16.3%

2–24.8%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.4%

3–12.2%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,04–1,53

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@2.11EV+10%

Over 2,547%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Middlesbrough to win47%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Middlesbrough to win47%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Tommy Daniel John Conway to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Tommy Daniel John Conway to score26%
Aidan Zen Patrick Morris to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Middlesbrough47% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
2 · Middlesbrough47% probability@2.45BetssonEV+16%reference odds
2 · Middlesbrough47% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burnley	X	2 · Middlesbrough
Betsafe	2.75	3.45	EV+ 16% 2.45
Betsson	2.75	3.45	EV+ 16% 2.45
Nordicbet	2.75	3.45	EV+ 16% 2.45
Pinnacle	2.76	3.61	EV+ 14% 2.41

Odds updated 1 Sept, 14:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.92 to 1.75 (−9%).

1+8 %

40 %30 %

2.55 → 2.76

X+3 %

32 %22 %

3.49 → 3.61

2-10 %

43 %33 %

2.67 → 2.41

Over 2,5-9 %

57 %47 %

1.92 → 1.75

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Burnley 0Draw 2Middlesbrough 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Burnley have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Burnley win 58% of their home matches all-time (24 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burnley

Middlesbrough

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burnley (4–9)

Middlesbrough (6–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burnley

Middlesbrough

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burnley

Middlesbrough

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burnley	Middlesbrough
Points	1	6
xPoints	2.6	5.2
xG per match	1.3	2.2
xGA per match	2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.02

Playing style	Burnley	Middlesbrough
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.47	0.67
xT per match	1.2	1.4
xTA per match	0.76	0.74
Won balls, offensive half	17	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.3
Entries into the box per match	10	19
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.79
Passes per match	413	538
Passes against per match	379	284
Switches of play per match	39.6	34.2
Long balls per match	32	27

Set pieces	Burnley	Middlesbrough
xG from free kicks	0	0.28
Corners per match	5	7.4
Corners against per match	4	4.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.64
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.85

Other	Burnley	Middlesbrough
Throw-in control	0.77	0.71

The goalkeepers	Max Weiß (Burnley)	Adilson Malanda (Middlesbrough)
Saves	6	4
Save %	40%	100%
xG prevented	22%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burnley vs Middlesbrough according to our model?

The model gives Middlesbrough a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burnley 28%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.