Queens Park Rangers vs Cardiff City: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship2 September 2026Loftus Road, London19°23 km/h

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Queens Park RangersCounter-attacks & crosses

Cardiff CityPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Cardiff City (43%)

1 · Queens Park Rangers 32%X 26%43% Cardiff City · 2

32%

26%

43%

Analysis: Queens Park Rangers – Cardiff City

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Cardiff City's 43% win probability stands out, suggesting the visitors are more likely to take the spoils. Despite Queens Park Rangers' superior points tally and marginally better recent head-to-head showing, the model leans towards Cardiff. The expected goals figures confirm a tight contest: QPR at 1.30 and Cardiff at 1.60. This hints at a narrow edge for the visitors, likely due to their control-based style overpowering QPR's counter-attacks.

The over 2.5 goals probability of 56% and a 58% chance for both teams to score indicate an expectation for goals. However, the most likely scorelines—1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), and 0-1 (8%)—suggest a closely fought battle with Cardiff having the upper hand. The small head-to-head sample since 2023, with QPR unbeaten in two matches, carries less weight than these form dynamics and expected goal metrics.

While QPR boasts a tighter defense with 1.0 xGA per match compared to Cardiff's 1.4, the visitors' offensive edge might just tip the balance. The data points towards Cardiff sneaking a win, leaning towards a 1-2 scoreline, with a slight preference for over 2.5 goals.

Queens Park Rangers

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #2xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Harvey ValeFxG 0.22 · xT 0.18
Jimmy DunneCBxG 0.04 · xT -0.09
Ilias ChairCAMxG 0.68 · xT 0.45

Cardiff City

Form DLDDD

League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #10xP/match #13Points #14

Key players

Joel Matthew BaganCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Rubin James ColwillRWxG 0.20 · xT -0.19
Alexander Sean Pablo RobertsonCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Queens Park Rangers – Cardiff City

Predicted score matrix

Cardiff City →

Queens Park Rangers →

0–05.8%

0–18.4%

0–27.0%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.8%

1–111.8%

1–29.2%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.8%

2–04.6%

2–17.4%

2–26.0%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.0%

3–13.2%

3–22.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,30–1,60

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.20

Over 2,556%

@2.00EV+11%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cardiff City or draw (X2)69%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cardiff City or draw (X2)69%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Christopher Anthony Willock to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Christopher Anthony Willock to score20%
Jonathan Raymond François Varane to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cardiff City43% probability@3.60Bet365EV+54%reference odds
2 · Cardiff City43% probability@3.47PinnacleEV+48%reference odds
Over 2.556% probability@2.00Bet365EV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Queens Park Rangers	X	2 · Cardiff City
Bet365	1.90	3.50	EV+ 54% 3.60
Pinnacle	1.93	EV+ 2% 3.99	EV+ 48% 3.47

Odds updated 1 Sept, 14:31

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.83 to 1.69 (−8%).

10 %

55 %45 %

1.93 → 1.93

X+2 %

29 %19 %

3.93 → 3.99

2-2 %

32 %22 %

3.55 → 3.47

Over 2,5-8 %

60 %50 %

1.83 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Queens Park Rangers 1Draw 1Cardiff City 0

Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Queens Park Rangers

Cardiff City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Queens Park Rangers (5–2)

Cardiff City (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Queens Park Rangers

Cardiff City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Queens Park Rangers

Cardiff City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Queens Park Rangers	Cardiff City
Points	7	3
xPoints	5.8	3.9
xG per match	1.9	2
xGA per match	1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.15

Playing style	Queens Park Rangers	Cardiff City
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.52	0.68
xT per match	1.5	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.76
Won balls, offensive half	26	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.23
Entries into the box per match	16	14
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.75
Passes per match	356	454
Passes against per match	382	198
Switches of play per match	25.5	39.7
Long balls per match	32	41

Set pieces	Queens Park Rangers	Cardiff City
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.02
Corners per match	5	9.5
Corners against per match	3.6	5.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.21
First touch, defensive corners %	0.82	0.83

Other	Queens Park Rangers	Cardiff City
Throw-in control	0.7	0.85

The goalkeepers	Pierce Joseph Charles (Queens Park Rangers)	Nathan Wallace Newman Trott (Cardiff City)
Saves	6	14
Save %	75%	74%
xG prevented	88%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Queens Park Rangers vs Cardiff City according to our model?

The model gives Cardiff City a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Queens Park Rangers 32%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.