01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
EFL ChampionshipBramall Lane, Sheffield17°18 km/h
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Sheffield UnitedLow block & directvs
Bolton WanderersPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Sheffield United (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bolton Wanderers @ 5.50 (+89 %)
Sheffield United – Bolton Wanderers · EFL Championship
1 · Sheffield United 41%X 25%34% Bolton Wanderers · 2
41%
25%
34%
Analysis: Sheffield United – Bolton Wanderers
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The value bet surfaces with Sheffield United to win, though no specific odds are provided in the data, so no precise price should be cited. Given the hosts' underlying numbers and home advantage, this angle presents an intriguing opportunity, especially if they can execute their direct playing style effectively.
**Corrected TEXT:**
The numbers hint at a tightly contested affair when Sheffield United hosts Bolton Wanderers. With a model edge leaning towards the home side at 41% versus Bolton's 34%, the game's dynamics favor a close battle punctuated by defensive discipline. The expected goals are narrowly in favor of Sheffield United, calculated at 1.25 against Bolton's 1.12, reflecting a marginal offensive advantage for the Blades.
Despite trailing by a single point in the table, Sheffield United's underlying metrics tell a different story. Their xPoints of 4.9 overshadow Bolton's 3.3, suggesting the hosts have underperformed their expected returns. In terms of xG and xGA, Sheffield maintains a slight edge, which could prove decisive in this matchup. Their more direct style contrasts Bolton's preference for possession control, potentially disrupting the visitors' rhythm.
The most likely scoreline according to the data is a 1-1 draw at 13%, followed closely by a narrow 1-0 victory for the Blades at 11%. This points to a low-scoring outcome, further evidenced by the over 2.5 goals probability sitting at just 42%. Both teams to score is only marginally more probable at 48%, reinforcing expectations of a cautious encounter.
While Bolton may claim a slight psychological edge with their single-point advantage in the standings, the hosts' better defensive metrics and xG tilt the scales. The small head-to-head sample should be treated cautiously, yet it doesn’t overshadow Sheffield's statistical superiority this season.
The value bet surfaces with Sheffield United to win, though no specific odds are provided in the data, so no precise price should be cited. Given the hosts' underlying numbers and home advantage, this angle presents an intriguing opportunity, especially if they can execute their direct playing style effectively.
Sheffield UnitedForm LWDDD
League ranking xG #18xGA #10xT #24xP/match #9Points #15
Key players
- Patrick BamfordFxG 0.67 · xT 0.05
- Callum OhareLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
- Femi SerikiRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Bolton WanderersForm WDL
League ranking xG #21xGA #15xT #20xP/match #17Points #11
Key players
- Thierry Mikael GaleLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
- Samuel George DalbyFxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
- Josh SheehanCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Sheffield United – Bolton Wanderers
Predicted score matrix
Bolton Wanderers →
Sheffield United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.8%
0–110.1%
0–25.9%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–011.3%
1–113.5%
1–27.3%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.2%
2–24.6%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.0%
3–13.4%
3–21.9%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,25–1,12
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.93EV+12%
Over 2,542%
@1.90
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Oliver Luke Arblaster to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Rúben da Rocha Rodrigues to score20%
- Joshua Luke Sheehan to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Bolton Wanderers34% probability@5.50Bet365EV+89%reference odds
- 2 · Bolton Wanderers34% probability@4.85PinnacleEV+67%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sheffield United | X | 2 · Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.90 | EV+ 89% 5.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.85 | EV+ 67% 4.85 |
Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:28
Odds movement
1+2 %
59 %54 %
1.66 → 1.69
X-3 %
27 %22 %
3.96 → 3.85
2-1 %
22 %17 %
4.89 → 4.85
Over 2,5+4 %
54 %49 %
1.82 → 1.90
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sheffield United
Bolton Wanderers
Sheffield United (2–2)
Bolton Wanderers (2–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sheffield United
Bolton Wanderers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sheffield United
Bolton Wanderers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sheffield United | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 4 |
| xPoints | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| Playing style | Sheffield United | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 0.39 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 178 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 393 | 290 |
| Switches of play per match | 10.9 | 41 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Sheffield United | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2.4 | 7.2 |
| Corners against per match | 9.2 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| Other | Sheffield United | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Cooper (Sheffield United) | Jack Elliott Bonham (Bolton Wanderers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 13 |
| Save % | 85% | 87% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 77% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sheffield United vs Bolton Wanderers according to our model?
The model gives Sheffield United a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield United 41%, draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.