01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Leicester City or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL League OneKing Power Stadium, Leicester16°14 km/h
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Leicester CityPossession & high pressvs
Plymouth ArgyleLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Leicester City (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Plymouth Argyle @ 3.70 (+16 %)
Leicester City – Plymouth Argyle · EFL League One
1 · Leicester City 44%X 24%31% Plymouth Argyle · 2
44%
24%
31%
Analysis: Leicester City – Plymouth Argyle
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
A small but telling historical sample shows Leicester City and Plymouth Argyle have little head-to-head data to lean on. Instead, the spotlight falls on recent form and underlying metrics. The Foxes, adopting a possession-heavy and high-pressing style, will seek to impose their will at home. Yet, it’s Plymouth's low-block, direct style that could prove troublesome for Leicester, especially given the visitors' impressive scoring streak of 15 straight league games.
Despite Leicester's slight edge in defensive metrics, with an xGA of 1.1 against Plymouth's 1.4, the visitors have demonstrated better performance in both actual and expected points. Argyle’s 4 points compared to Leicester’s 2, along with superior xPoints, suggest a team that capitalizes well on their opportunities. Furthermore, the Greens’ xG per match leads slightly at 1.3, compared to Leicester’s 1.2, underscoring their efficiency in front of goal.
The expected goals model reflects a narrow margin between the sides, with Leicester City predicted to score 1.41 and Plymouth Argyle 1.23, hinting at a closely contested match. The model leans towards Leicester with a 44% win probability, but the draw and a Plymouth win both hold substantial percentages. Given the low lean on over 2.5 goals at 49%, and the expectation of both teams scoring at 54%, a tight contest seems likely.
In the betting market, there lies an intriguing opportunity with Plymouth Argyle's away win. Priced at odds of 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model suggests a 31% chance of success, offering a significant 16% edge. While Leicester might have home advantage, the value clearly points towards the visitors springing a surprise.
Leicester CityForm DLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #8xT #6xP/match #24Points #21
Key players
- Samuel Charles BraybrookeCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
- Memeh Caleb OkoliCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Harry SouttarCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.23
Plymouth ArgyleForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #11xP/match #7Points #12
Key players
- Bradley Ryan IbrahimFxG 0.16 · xT 0.13
- Ronan CurtisLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.24
- Xavier Casmier AmaechiRWxG 0.29 · xT -0.02
Match prediction: Leicester City – Plymouth Argyle
Predicted score matrix
Plymouth Argyle →
Leicester City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–18.4%
0–25.4%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.7%
1–112.7%
1–27.6%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.1%
2–18.7%
2–25.4%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.1%
3–22.5%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,41–1,23
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@2.20EV+11%
Over 2,549%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Leicester City or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Issahaku Abdul Fatawu to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Issahaku Abdul Fatawu to score22%
- Caleb Cassius Watts to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Plymouth Argyle31% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- 2 · Plymouth Argyle31% probability@3.70BetssonEV+16%reference odds
- 2 · Plymouth Argyle31% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Leicester City | X | 2 · Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.88 | 3.60 | EV+ 16% 3.70 |
| Betsson | 1.88 | 3.60 | EV+ 16% 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | 3.60 | EV+ 16% 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.96 | EV+ 10% 3.51 |
Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:28
Odds movement
1-1 %
52 %47 %
1.93 → 1.91
X0 %
26 %21 %
3.95 → 3.96
2+1 %
30 %25 %
3.46 → 3.51
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.67 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Plymouth Argyle have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Leicester City
Plymouth Argyle
Leicester City (2–3)
Plymouth Argyle (4–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Leicester City
Plymouth Argyle
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Leicester City
Plymouth Argyle
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Leicester City | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 4 |
| xPoints | 2.4 | 4.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| Playing style | Leicester City | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.76 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.58 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 563 | 201 |
| Passes against per match | 168 | 339 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.2 | 9.3 |
| Long balls per match | 21 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Leicester City | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.17 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Other | Leicester City | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Alex Simon McCarthy (Leicester City) | Murphy Joseph Mahoney Cooper (Plymouth Argyle) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 4 |
| Save % | 63% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle according to our model?
The model gives Leicester City a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leicester City 44%, draw 24%, Plymouth Argyle 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.