Fulham vs Chelsea: Prediction & Odds (24 Aug 2026)

Premier League24 August 2026Craven Cottage, London17°0,4 mm23 km/h

FulhamBalanced & physical

ChelseaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Chelsea (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Fulham @ 3.80 (+32 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Fulham 35%X 26%39% Chelsea · 2

35%

26%

39%

Analysis: Fulham – Chelsea

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Four head-to-head clashes since 2022, evenly split with two wins apiece, suggest a competitive narrative between Fulham and Chelsea. Still, a small sample size like this holds less weight compared to broader form and metrics. What the numbers reveal is Chelsea holding slight edges in expected goals and points, painting them as narrow favorites. Their balanced but physical style mirrors Fulham's, though perhaps with a touch more finesse, as reflected in their marginally superior xG per match at 1.6 to Fulham's 1.4.

Chelsea, despite their modest recent returns, have the model's backing with a 39% chance of victory, compared to Fulham's 35%. The most likely scorelines further support this notion, with a 1-1 draw at 13% and a 0-1 Chelsea win at 10%. Expected goals of 1.19 for Fulham and 1.47 for Chelsea align with a tight contest, yet one suggesting Chelsea might just about edge it, possibly sneaking a 0-1 or 1-2 win.

Fulham, playing at home, turn the weather to their advantage. Rain and strong winds are forecast, conditions that typically stifle goal-scoring opportunities. This weather context is already factored into the model's numbers, yet it might still nudge an under 2.5 goals play into consideration given the weather's impact on fluency and finishing.

Punters seeking value have a juicy proposition on Fulham's home win, rated at 35% by the model. With odds of 3.6 from Nordicbet offering a 25% edge, this is a prime opportunity for those eyeing a potential upset. Despite Chelsea's edge in the metrics, the betting market's underestimation of Fulham makes this wager intriguing, if speculative. As for the sharpest angle, a cautious go with the model's lean on Chelsea, while keeping a side-eye on the generous odds for a Fulham win, encapsulates the essence of betting wisdom.

Fulham

Form WLLDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #5xT #12xP/match #13Points #10

Key players

Alex IwobiCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Raul JimenezFxG 0.49 · xT 0.00
Joachim AndersenCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10

Chelsea

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #5xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

João PedroFxG 0.45 · xT 0.02
Cole PalmerRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.14
Pedro NetoRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Fulham – Chelsea

Predicted score matrix

Chelsea →

Fulham →

0–07.3%

0–19.9%

0–27.5%

0–33.7%

0–4+1.9%

1–08.0%

1–112.6%

1–29.0%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.0%

2–17.3%

2–25.4%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.0%

3–12.9%

3–22.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-28%

Expected goals

1,19–1,47

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.27EV+14%

Over 2,550%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Chelsea or draw (X2)70%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Chelsea or draw (X2)70%
Under 2.5 goals50%
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus to score25%
Sander Gard Bolin Berge to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Fulham35% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+32%reference odds
1 · Fulham35% probability@3.78BetssonEV+31%reference odds
1 · Fulham35% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+30%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fulham	X	2 · Chelsea
Betsafe	EV+ 30% 3.75	3.65	1.92
Betsson	EV+ 31% 3.78	3.66	1.94
Nordicbet	EV+ 32% 3.80	3.65	1.95

Odds updated 18 Aug, 19:37

Odds movement

1+6 %

28 %23 %

3.58 → 3.78

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.66 → 3.66

2-3 %

51 %46 %

2.00 → 1.94

Over 2,5+2 %

61 %56 %

1.61 → 1.65

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Fulham 2Draw 0Chelsea 2

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fulham

Chelsea

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Fulham (47–51)

Chelsea (58–52)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fulham

Chelsea

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fulham

Chelsea

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fulham	Chelsea
Points	52	52
xPoints	51.4	53.3
xG per match	1.4	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.25

Playing style	Fulham	Chelsea
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.5	0.59
xT per match	0.93	1.1
xTA per match	0.85	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	23	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.32
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.79
Passes per match	407	469
Passes against per match	377	325
Switches of play per match	25.4	20.9
Long balls per match	29	26

Set pieces	Fulham	Chelsea
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.04
Corners per match	4.9	5.9
Corners against per match	5.5	4.3
xG per corner	0.06	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.51

Other	Fulham	Chelsea
Throw-in control	0.7	0.75

The goalkeepers	Bernd Leno (Fulham)	Robert Sánchez (Chelsea)
Saves	98	102
Save %	67%	69%
xG prevented	47%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fulham vs Chelsea according to our model?

The model gives Chelsea a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fulham 35%, draw 26%, Chelsea 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.