Premier LeaguePortman Road, Ipswich20°2,5 mm27 km/h

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    Ipswich TownIpswich TownPossession control
    vs
    LiverpoolLiverpoolPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Liverpool (53%)Best value by the model: 1 · Ipswich Town @ 5.85 (+59 %)

    Ipswich Town – Liverpool · Premier League

    1 · Ipswich Town 27%X 20%53% Liverpool · 2

    Analysis: Ipswich Town – Liverpool

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Liverpool's relentless scoring streak could be the decisive factor as they visit Ipswich Town. The Reds have found the net in 19 consecutive league games — an impressive run that hints at their offensive potency. This attacking prowess is underscored by their expected goals (xG) standing at 1.85 in the upcoming encounter, suggesting they will likely breach the hosts' defense.

    Ipswich's own approach, characterized by possession control, aims to disrupt Liverpool's high-pressing style. However, the visitors' ability to maintain pressure and capitalize on scoring opportunities could tilt the scales in their favor. Despite Ipswich holding a slight edge in actual points this season, the underlying numbers point to Liverpool's superiority. The head-to-head meetings, albeit just two games since 2022, saw Liverpool winning both — it's a small sample, but it reinforces their current dominance.

    While Ipswich's defense has been a concern, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match, Liverpool's attack has been relentless. Coupled with Liverpool's xG of 2.5 per match, the likelihood of them scoring more than once is high. The model's most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 reflect this, with Liverpool edging Ipswich.

    Given the probabilities, a Liverpool victory seems the most plausible outcome, especially considering a 53% win probability. The expected goals model also supports an over 2.5 goals lean, with a 62% probability. However, the real value lies in the betting odds. Ipswich Town offers a significant edge at odds of 5.57 with Betsson, 5.55 with Betsafe, and 5.55 with Nordicbet, compared to the model's 27% win probability. For those looking for a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, these odds present an enticing bet.

    Ipswich TownIpswich Town
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #9xP/match #14Points #9
    Key players
    • Chuba AkpomFxG 0.59 · xT -0.04
    • Sindre Walle EgeliRWxG 0.40 · xT -0.01
    • Dara O'SheaCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.16
    • Numbers from England League Cup 2026
    LiverpoolLiverpool
    Form DLDDD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #14xT #4xP/match #11Points #13
    Key players
    • Virgil van DijkCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
    • Alexander IsakFxG 1.12 · xT -0.03
    • Dominik SzoboszlaiCMxG 0.44 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Ipswich Town – Liverpool

    Predicted score matrix

    Liverpool →
    Ipswich Town →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.4%
    0–17.2%
    0–27.0%
    0–34.3%
    0–4+3.0%
    1
    1–05.2%
    1–110.5%
    1–29.4%
    1–35.8%
    1–4+4.1%
    2
    2–03.7%
    2–16.9%
    2–26.4%
    2–33.9%
    2–4+2.7%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-17%
    4. 4.0-27%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,35–1,85
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @2.69EV+2%
    Over 2,562%
    @1.48

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Liverpool to win53%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.42

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Liverpool to win53%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Cody Mathès Gakpo to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Iván Azón Monzón to score29%
    • Virgil van Dijk to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Ipswich Town27% probability@5.85BetsafeEV+59%reference odds
    • 1 · Ipswich Town27% probability@5.85BetssonEV+59%reference odds
    • 1 · Ipswich Town27% probability@5.85NordicbetEV+59%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Ipswich TownX2 · Liverpool
    Betsafe
    EV+ 59%
    5.85    		4.301.52
    Betsson
    EV+ 59%
    5.85    		4.311.54
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 59%
    5.85    		4.301.55
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 45%
    5.33    		4.811.55

    Odds updated 2 Sept, 20:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Liverpool win since 28 August — the odds have shortened from 1.60 to 1.55 (−4%).

    1+14 %
    22 %17 %

    4.68 → 5.33

    X+7 %
    23 %18 %

    4.48 → 4.81

    2-4 %
    63 %58 %

    1.60 → 1.55

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 28/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Ipswich Town 0Draw 0Liverpool 2
    Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Liverpool FC have scored in 19 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ipswich Town
    Liverpool
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ipswich Town (4–6)
    Liverpool (4–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ipswich Town
    Issa Diop: 70 passningar, xT -0.11DiopJacob Greaves: 69 passningar, xT 0.02GreavesSaša Lukić: 64 passningar, xT -0.02LukićDara O'Shea: 61 passningar, xT 0.29O'SheaMarcelino Nunez: 60 passningar, xT 0.01NunezKjell Scherpen: 48 passningar, xT 0.07ScherpenLeif Davis: 48 passningar, xT 0.09DavisJulio Enciso: 38 passningar, xT 0.19EncisoExequiel Alejandro Palacios: 23 passningar, xT 0.01PalaciosAbdul Fatawu: 18 passningar, xT 0.98FatawuDaizen Maeda: 17 passningar, xT -0.04Maeda
    Liverpool
    Virgil van Dijk: 144 passningar, xT 0.2DijkDominik Szoboszlai: 128 passningar, xT 0.18SzoboszlaiJérémy Jacquet: 115 passningar, xT 0.25JacquetJeremie Frimpong: 82 passningar, xT 0.28FrimpongMiloš Kerkez: 68 passningar, xT 0.1KerkezFlorian Wirtz: 64 passningar, xT 0.13WirtzAlexis Mac Allister: 58 passningar, xT 0.08AllisterAlisson Becker: 49 passningar, xT 0.07BeckerRyan Gravenberch: 49 passningar, xT 0.14GravenberchRonald Araujo: 48 passningar, xT 0.08AraujoCody Gakpo: 38 passningar, xT 0.52Gakpo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ipswich Town
    Issa Diop: 70 passningar, xT -0.11DiopJacob Greaves: 69 passningar, xT 0.02GreavesSaša Lukić: 64 passningar, xT -0.02LukićDara O'Shea: 61 passningar, xT 0.29O'SheaMarcelino Nunez: 60 passningar, xT 0.01NunezKjell Scherpen: 48 passningar, xT 0.07ScherpenLeif Davis: 48 passningar, xT 0.09DavisJulio Enciso: 38 passningar, xT 0.19EncisoExequiel Alejandro Palacios: 23 passningar, xT 0.01PalaciosAbdul Fatawu: 18 passningar, xT 0.98FatawuDaizen Maeda: 17 passningar, xT -0.04Maeda
    Liverpool
    Virgil van Dijk: 144 passningar, xT 0.2DijkDominik Szoboszlai: 128 passningar, xT 0.18SzoboszlaiJérémy Jacquet: 115 passningar, xT 0.25JacquetJeremie Frimpong: 82 passningar, xT 0.28FrimpongMiloš Kerkez: 68 passningar, xT 0.1KerkezFlorian Wirtz: 64 passningar, xT 0.13WirtzAlexis Mac Allister: 58 passningar, xT 0.08AllisterAlisson Becker: 49 passningar, xT 0.07BeckerRyan Gravenberch: 49 passningar, xT 0.14GravenberchRonald Araujo: 48 passningar, xT 0.08AraujoCody Gakpo: 38 passningar, xT 0.52Gakpo

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceIpswich TownLiverpool
    Points32
    xPoints2.32.7
    xG per match1.12.5
    xGA per match2.21.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.281
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.150.28
    Playing styleIpswich TownLiverpool
    Build-up efficiency0.290.34
    Field tilt0.30.73
    xT per match0.891.3
    xTA per match0.820.79
    Won balls, offensive half1930
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.240.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.3
    Entries into the box per match514
    Entries into the box against1610
    Pass completion %0.750.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.74
    Passes per match285454
    Passes against per match490206
    Switches of play per match1532.7
    Long balls per match2134
    Set piecesIpswich TownLiverpool
    xG from free kicks00.15
    Corners per match3.54.4
    Corners against per match6.53.4
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.140.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.380.86
    OtherIpswich TownLiverpool
    Throw-in control0.660.79
    The goalkeepersKjell Scherpen (Ipswich Town)Alisson Becker (Liverpool)
    Saves94
    Save %64%50%
    xG prevented42%33%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ipswich Town vs Liverpool according to our model?

    The model gives Liverpool a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ipswich Town 27%, draw 20%, Liverpool 53%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.