Premier LeagueAnfield, Liverpool17°5,9 mm13 km/h

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    LiverpoolLiverpoolPossession & high press
    vs
    Nottingham ForestNottingham ForestPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Liverpool (58%)Best value by the model: 2 · Nottingham Forest @ 6.24 (+22 %)

    Liverpool – Nottingham Forest · Premier League

    1 · Liverpool 58%X 23%19% Nottingham Forest · 2

    Analysis: Liverpool – Nottingham Forest

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Liverpool's 18-game scoring streak is the defining factor as they face Nottingham Forest. Despite the hosts' impressive ability to consistently find the net, their head-to-head with Forest since 2022 has been less convincing, with only one win in four encounters. However, Liverpool's form and their home win rate of 68% provide a strong foundation for their favoritism in this match.

    The model's expected goals suggest a clear but not overwhelming advantage for the home side, predicting 1.73 xG for Liverpool against Forest's 0.95. This aligns with the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 at 12% each, indicating a tight contest. Despite the potential for goals, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring hovers around 50%, reflecting the impact of expected rain, which typically dampens high-scoring affairs.

    Nottingham Forest's value bet at odds of 6.63 with Betsson, and 6.6 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, offers a lucrative edge given the model's 19% win probability for them—an edge of 29%. Yet, Liverpool's high pressing and possession style should see them edge this with a 1-0 victory, maintaining their scoring run while the visitors may find breaking through difficult.

    LiverpoolLiverpool
    Form LDLDD
    League ranking xG #2xGA #9xT #6xP/match #4Points #10
    Key players
    • Cody GakpoLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.12
    • Alexander IsakFxG 1.56 · xT -0.05
    • Virgil van DijkCBxG 0.26 · xT 0.08
    Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
    Form WDLDL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #10xP/match #11Points #13
    Key players
    • Chris WoodFxG 0.44 · xT -0.02
    • Elliot AndersonCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.17
    • Callum Hudson OdoiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: Liverpool – Nottingham Forest

    Predicted score matrix

    Nottingham Forest →
    Liverpool →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–16.2%
    0–23.1%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–111.6%
    1–25.4%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.9%
    3–15.6%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.8%
    4+–13.6%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,73–0,95
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @2.33EV+16%
    Over 2,550%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Liverpool to win58%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.67

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Liverpool to win58%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Cody Mathès Gakpo to score33%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Cody Mathès Gakpo to score33%
    • Ibrahim Sangaré to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Nottingham Forest19% probability@6.24BetssonEV+22%reference odds
    • 2 · Nottingham Forest19% probability@6.20BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
    • 2 · Nottingham Forest19% probability@6.20NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LiverpoolX2 · Nottingham Forest
    Betsafe1.524.25
    EV+ 21%
    6.20
    Betsson1.524.27
    EV+ 22%
    6.24
    Nordicbet1.524.25
    EV+ 21%
    6.20
    Pinnacle1.55
    EV+ 3%
    4.55
    EV+ 11%
    5.68

    Odds updated 27 Aug, 16:39

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    66 %61 %

    1.49 → 1.55

    X-1 %
    23 %18 %

    4.58 → 4.55

    2-3 %
    19 %14 %

    5.86 → 5.68

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 27/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Liverpool 1Draw 1Nottingham Forest 2
    Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Liverpool FC have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.
    • Liverpool FC win 68% of their home matches all-time (76 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Liverpool
    Nottingham Forest
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Liverpool (2–2)
    Nottingham Forest (0–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Liverpool
    Dominik Szoboszlai: 51 passningar, xT 0.11SzoboszlaiVirgil van Dijk: 48 passningar, xT 0.07DijkJeremie Frimpong: 40 passningar, xT 0.25FrimpongRyan Gravenberch: 39 passningar, xT 0.14GravenberchMiloš Kerkez: 36 passningar, xT 0.06KerkezJérémy Jacquet: 36 passningar, xT 0.09JacquetFlorian Wirtz: 27 passningar, xT 0.04WirtzRonald Araujo: 25 passningar, xT 0.03AraujoAlisson Becker: 19 passningar, xT 0.02BeckerCody Gakpo: 17 passningar, xT 0.05GakpoAlexis Mac Allister: 11 passningar, xT 0.01Allister
    Nottingham Forest
    Murillo: 51 passningar, xT 0.26MurilloIbrahim Sangaré: 41 passningar, xT -0.01SangaréJair Cunha: 38 passningar, xT 0.04CunhaNikola Milenković: 33 passningar, xT 0.02MilenkovićMorgan Gibbs White: 33 passningar, xT -0.01WhiteJames McAtee: 31 passningar, xT 0.15McAteeNeco Williams: 30 passningar, xT 0.05WilliamsOla Aina: 25 passningar, xT 0.37AinaIgor Jesus: 19 passningar, xT -0.01JesusMatz Sels: 17 passningar, xT 0.02SelsLuca Netz: 9 passningar, xT 0.04Netz
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Liverpool
    Dominik Szoboszlai: 51 passningar, xT 0.11SzoboszlaiVirgil van Dijk: 48 passningar, xT 0.07DijkJeremie Frimpong: 40 passningar, xT 0.25FrimpongRyan Gravenberch: 39 passningar, xT 0.14GravenberchMiloš Kerkez: 36 passningar, xT 0.06KerkezJérémy Jacquet: 36 passningar, xT 0.09JacquetFlorian Wirtz: 27 passningar, xT 0.04WirtzRonald Araujo: 25 passningar, xT 0.03AraujoAlisson Becker: 19 passningar, xT 0.02BeckerCody Gakpo: 17 passningar, xT 0.05GakpoAlexis Mac Allister: 11 passningar, xT 0.01Allister
    Nottingham Forest
    Murillo: 51 passningar, xT 0.26MurilloIbrahim Sangaré: 41 passningar, xT -0.01SangaréJair Cunha: 38 passningar, xT 0.04CunhaNikola Milenković: 33 passningar, xT 0.02MilenkovićMorgan Gibbs White: 33 passningar, xT -0.01WhiteJames McAtee: 31 passningar, xT 0.15McAteeNeco Williams: 30 passningar, xT 0.05WilliamsOla Aina: 25 passningar, xT 0.37AinaIgor Jesus: 19 passningar, xT -0.01JesusMatz Sels: 17 passningar, xT 0.02SelsLuca Netz: 9 passningar, xT 0.04Netz

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLiverpoolNottingham Forest
    Points10
    xPoints2.11.1
    xG per match3.50.88
    xGA per match1.30.86
    xG within 8s of winning the ball1.60.05
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.310.16
    Playing styleLiverpoolNottingham Forest
    Build-up efficiency0.340.32
    Field tilt0.70.68
    xT per match1.20.9
    xTA per match0.610.52
    Won balls, offensive half3324
    Pressing intensity0.230.19
    Pressing efficiency0.330.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.26
    Entries into the box per match1413
    Entries into the box against76
    Pass completion %0.760.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.68
    Passes per match366353
    Passes against per match223249
    Switches of play per match25.340.9
    Long balls per match2543
    Set piecesLiverpoolNottingham Forest
    xG from free kicks0.30.17
    Corners per match5.83.1
    Corners against per match1.92
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against00
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.33
    First touch, defensive corners %10.5
    OtherLiverpoolNottingham Forest
    Throw-in control0.741
    The goalkeepersAlisson Becker (Liverpool)Ibrahim Sangaré (Nottingham Forest)
    Saves33
    Save %60%100%
    xG prevented68%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest according to our model?

    The model gives Liverpool a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Liverpool 58%, draw 23%, Nottingham Forest 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.