Manchester United vs Manchester City: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Premier League12 September 2026Old Trafford, Manchester15°14,2 mm18 km/h

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Manchester United

Manchester City

The model's lean: 2 · Manchester City (45%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 21.00 (+23 %)

1 · Manchester United 28%X 27%45% Manchester City · 2

28%

27%

45%

Analysis coming shortly

The match analysis will be published shortly — the model's prediction and the odds above keep updating until kickoff.

Match prediction: Manchester United – Manchester City

Predicted score matrix

Manchester City →

Manchester United →

0–05.9%

0–19.0%

0–27.9%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.7%

1–06.4%

1–111.6%

1–29.5%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.0%

2–16.8%

2–25.7%

2–33.2%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.6%

3–12.8%

3–22.3%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,21–1,69

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.63EV+18%

Over 2,555%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Manchester City or draw (X2)73%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Manchester City or draw (X2)73%
Over 2.5 goals55%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.56% probability@21.00BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.56% probability@21.00BetssonEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.56% probability@21.00NordicbetEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Manchester United	X	2 · Manchester City
Betsafe	3.00	EV+ 1% 3.75	2.15
Betsson	3.04	EV+ 2% 3.79	2.17
Nordicbet	3.05	EV+ 2% 3.80	2.18
Pinnacle	2.99	EV+ 6% 3.95	2.14

Odds updated 4 Sept, 05:38

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Manchester United vs Manchester City according to our model?

The model gives Manchester City a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Manchester United 28%, draw 27%, Manchester City 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.