Darmstadt vs St. Pauli: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga23 October 2026Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Darmstadt12°1,3 mm21 km/h

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DarmstadtLow block & direct

0–0

St. PauliPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · St. Pauli (45%)

1 · Darmstadt 28%X 27%45% St. Pauli · 2

28%

27%

45%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Darmstadt vs St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga, Friday, 23 October 2026): Darmstadt win 28%, draw 27%, St. Pauli win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Darmstadt 1.25, St. Pauli 1.50. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Darmstadt or draw 55%, St. Pauli or draw 72%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Darmstadt – St. Pauli

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

FC St. Pauli's unbeaten run over their last five league matches highlights their current form superiority over Darmstadt. The visitors have also maintained an impressive scoring streak, netting in eight consecutive league games. While the head-to-head sample is too small to weigh heavily against current form and expected goals, these trends underscore St. Pauli's potential to exploit Darmstadt's vulnerabilities.

Darmstadt's defensive frailties are evident, with an xGA of 1.7 per match. This contrasts sharply with St. Pauli's more robust defensive profile, conceding an xGA of just 1.1 per match. With the hosts struggling to consistently suppress their opponents, St. Pauli's high-pressing playstyle might exact a toll on Darmstadt's backline, which is already prone to leaks.

Despite the offensive edge of St. Pauli, the expected goals model suggests a tight contest, with scorelines like 1-1 or a narrow 0-1 win for the visitors looking probable. The data points to a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 52%, but given both teams' current scoring patterns and defensive metrics, a more cautious approach could be justified.

The sharpest angle in this matchup is the value on under 3.5 goals. LeoVegas offers it at odds of 1.44, with the model assessing a 70% chance of this outcome, providing a 1% edge. This bet aligns well with the model's expectation and both teams' recent patterns, offering a sensible approach to this encounter without overstating potential outcomes.

Darmstadt

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #18xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Florian KleinhanslLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Ho-Jae LeeRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.02
Kai KlefischCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.02

St. Pauli

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #16xGA #2xT #6xP/match #7Points #7

Key players

Eric SmithCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
David NemethCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
Arkadiusz PyrkaRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Darmstadt 28% · Draw 27% · St. Pauli 45%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC St. PauliBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,81fair 8,50-20 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Darmstadt 98Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,72fair 12,16-28 %

Miss

Match prediction: Darmstadt – St. Pauli

Predicted score matrix

St. Pauli →

Darmstadt →

0–06.7%

0–19.2%

0–27.2%

0–33.6%

0–4+1.9%

1–07.6%

1–112.3%

1–29.0%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.0%

2–17.5%

2–25.6%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.1%

3–13.1%

3–22.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,25–1,50

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.05

Over 2,552%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

St. Pauli to win45%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

St. Pauli to win45%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Louis Oppie to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Louis Oppie to score19%
Joel Chima Fujita to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · St. Pauli45% probability@2.39PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
2 · St. Pauli45% probability@2.30LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
2 · St. Pauli45% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Darmstadt	X	2 · St. Pauli
Betsafe	2.85	3.35	EV+ 2% 2.25
LeoVegas	2.88	3.40	EV+ 4% 2.30
Nordicbet	2.85	3.35	EV+ 2% 2.25
Pinnacle	3.08	3.47	EV+ 8% 2.39

Odds updated 23 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 2.19 to 2.05 (−6%).

1-6 %

32 %27 %

3.26 → 3.08

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.47 → 3.47

2+9 %

46 %41 %

2.20 → 2.39

Over 2,5+9 %

57 %52 %

1.69 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
FC St. Pauli have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Darmstadt

St. Pauli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Darmstadt (8–18)

St. Pauli (11–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

St. Pauli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

St. Pauli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Darmstadt	St. Pauli
Points	7	11
xPoints	8.9	10.9
xG per match	0.92	1.2
xGA per match	1.7	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.11

Playing style	Darmstadt	St. Pauli
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.33	0.51
xT per match	0.66	1.1
xTA per match	1.4	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	26	25
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	20	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.69
Passes per match	325	367
Passes against per match	452	403
Switches of play per match	21.9	18
Long balls per match	27	27

Set pieces	Darmstadt	St. Pauli
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.06
Corners per match	4.8	5.6
Corners against per match	7.4	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.68

Other	Darmstadt	St. Pauli
Throw-in control	0.71	0.75

The goalkeepers	Marcel Schuhen (Darmstadt)	Ben Alexander Voll (St. Pauli)
Saves	31	26
Save %	63%	79%
xG prevented	39%	65%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Darmstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

St. Pauli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Darmstadt vs St. Pauli according to our model?

The model gives St. Pauli a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Darmstadt 28%, draw 27%, St. Pauli 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Darmstadt vs St. Pauli?

The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Darmstadt and 1.50 for St. Pauli, 2.75 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Darmstadt or draw (1X) 55%, St. Pauli or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.