Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus Prediction: Home win 51% (24 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga24 October 2026Voith-Arena, Heidenheim7°23 km/h

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HeidenheimPossession control

Energie CottbusCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Heidenheim (51%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 2.22 (+23 %)

1 · Heidenheim 51%X 24%25% Energie Cottbus · 2

51%

24%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus (2. Bundesliga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Heidenheim win 51%, draw 24%, Energie Cottbus win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Heidenheim 1.92, Energie Cottbus 1.51. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Heidenheim or draw 75%, Energie Cottbus or draw 49%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Heidenheim – Energie Cottbus

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Heidenheim's 51% win probability sets them as the favorites against Energie Cottbus in this 2. Bundesliga clash. The home team not only holds an advantage in points, xPoints, and xGA but also benefits from a more possession-oriented style, likely to stymie the visitors' reliance on counterattacks and crosses. The expected goals further underscore Heidenheim's edge, predicting 1.92 to Energie's 1.51, pointing to a narrow but decisive win for the hosts.

Despite Heidenheim's favorable position, the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 indicate a competitive match. Both teams have a 67% chance of scoring, reinforcing the notion of a close contest. However, Energie Cottbus's defensive frailties, with 2.1 xGA per match, are likely to be exploited by Heidenheim's more efficient attack. The hosts seem primed to bag a 2-1 victory in a match that may be closer than the stats suggest.

The betting angles reveal intriguing opportunities. While the over 2.5 goals market leads at 67%, the sharper play might focus on the value found in the unders. With LeoVegas offering under 3.5 goals at 2.1 odds—a 16% edge according to the model—this stands out as a valuable proposition. The numbers support a cautious approach despite the offensive potential.

Heidenheim

Form WWDDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #7xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Marvin PieringerFxG 0.22 · xT -0.04
Jonas FöhrenbachCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Marcel CostlyFxG 0.25 · xT 0.15

Energie Cottbus

Form DWDLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #10xP/match #16Points #10

Key players

Dominik PelivanCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Jannis BoziarisCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.01
King ManuCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Heidenheim – Energie Cottbus

Predicted score matrix

Energie Cottbus →

Heidenheim →

0–03.5%

0–14.6%

0–23.7%

0–31.9%

0–4+1.0%

1–06.0%

1–19.7%

1–27.1%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.0%

2–19.0%

2–26.8%

2–33.4%

2–4+1.8%

3–03.8%

3–15.8%

3–24.4%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.2%

4+–02.9%

4+–14.3%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.2-06%

Expected goals

1,92–1,51

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,533%

@3.55EV+17%

Over 2,567%

@1.26

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Heidenheim to win51%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Heidenheim to win51%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Budu Zivzivadze to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Budu Zivzivadze to score23%
Axel Borgmann to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.555% probability@2.22PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
Under 2.533% probability@3.55LeoVegasEV+19%reference odds
Under 3.555% probability@2.12LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heidenheim	X	2 · Energie Cottbus
Betsafe	1.65	EV+ 1% 4.30	3.95
LeoVegas	1.67	EV+ 6% 4.50	3.95
Nordicbet	1.65	EV+ 1% 4.30	3.95
Pinnacle	1.68	EV+ 15% 4.87	EV+ 8% 4.32

Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

59 %54 %

1.71 → 1.68

X+8 %

23 %18 %

4.53 → 4.87

2+6 %

26 %21 %

4.07 → 4.32

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heidenheim

Energie Cottbus

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heidenheim (15–15)

Energie Cottbus (16–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heidenheim

Energie Cottbus

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heidenheim

Energie Cottbus

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heidenheim	Energie Cottbus
Points	14	9
xPoints	12.2	9.2
xG per match	1.7	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.29

Playing style	Heidenheim	Energie Cottbus
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.4	0.59
xT per match	1.1	0.97
xTA per match	0.82	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.25
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.7	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.7
Passes per match	291	369
Passes against per match	338	327
Switches of play per match	31	27.8
Long balls per match	44	32

Set pieces	Heidenheim	Energie Cottbus
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.06
Corners per match	5.2	7.1
Corners against per match	7	5.7
xG per corner	0.06	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.54

Other	Heidenheim	Energie Cottbus
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Thomas Dähne (Heidenheim)	Marcel Lotka (Energie Cottbus)
Saves	25	32
Save %	76%	67%
xG prevented	67%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heidenheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Energie Cottbus

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus according to our model?

The model gives Heidenheim a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heidenheim 51%, draw 24%, Energie Cottbus 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus?

The model expects 1.92 goals (xG) for Heidenheim and 1.51 for Energie Cottbus, 3.43 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Heidenheim or draw (1X) 75%, Energie Cottbus or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.