Hertha Berlin vs Magdeburg: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga6 September 2026Olympiastadion, Berlin17°16 km/h

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Hertha BerlinPossession control

MagdeburgCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Hertha Berlin (44%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.70 (+8 %)

1 · Hertha Berlin 44%X 27%29% Magdeburg · 2

44%

27%

29%

Analysis: Hertha Berlin – Magdeburg

Oscar Nilsson · 1 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hertha Berlin enter this match with a clear momentum advantage, riding a wave of three consecutive victories. This edge is underscored by their superior xPoints and xG metrics, which suggest they’ve outperformed Magdeburg not just in results but in the underlying numbers as well. The model gives them a 44% chance of winning compared to Magdeburg's 29%, with the hosts' control of possession likely to dictate the tempo.

However, the head-to-head record tells a different story, albeit from a small sample of four games: Magdeburg have actually gotten the better of Hertha twice, losing only once. This history injects a note of caution into any assumption that the hosts will easily carry the day. Magdeburg's counter-attacking style, leveraging crosses, poses a threat despite their lower xG per match of 0.91 against Hertha's 1.9.

A scoreline of 1-1 emerges as the most probable outcome according to the model, carrying an 11% likelihood. The odds favor under 3.5 goals, a market offering a 5% edge with multiple bookmakers at odds of 1.65. Given the expected goals of 1.68 for Hertha and 1.37 for Magdeburg, coupled with the 61% chance of both teams scoring, a tight match with limited scoring opportunities seems plausible.

While the over 2.5 line suggests a 59% chance, the under 3.5 market presents a sharper angle given the current odds and model's assessment. The defensive vulnerabilities of both sides, Hertha's at 1.3 xGA and Magdeburg's at 1.9, imply some risk of goals, but the bet on under 3.5 aligns with the most likely scorelines presented.

In betting terms, the real value lies in taking the under 3.5 goals offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 1.65. This position balances the expected match dynamic with the available market edge.

Hertha Berlin

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #6Points #2

Key players

Sebastian GronningFxG 0.73 · xT -0.03
Marten WinklerRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
Josip BrekaloLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.14

Magdeburg

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #11xP/match #16Points #5

Key players

Mateusz ZukowskiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.03
Barış-Fahri AtikLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
Falko MichelFxG 0.09 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Hertha Berlin – Magdeburg

Predicted score matrix

Magdeburg →

Hertha Berlin →

0–05.1%

0–16.2%

0–24.4%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.9%

1–07.6%

1–111.2%

1–27.5%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.7%

2–19.2%

2–26.3%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.8%

3–15.1%

3–23.5%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.3%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,68–1,37

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.52EV+4%

Over 2,559%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hertha Berlin or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hertha Berlin or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Fabian Reese to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Fabian Reese to score27%
Marcus Klingenberg Mathisen to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.564% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
2 · Magdeburg29% probability@3.64PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Under 3.564% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hertha Berlin	X	2 · Magdeburg
Betsafe	1.92	3.60	3.35
Betsson	1.92	3.60	3.35
Nordicbet	1.92	3.60	3.35
Pinnacle	1.92	EV+ 5% 3.93	EV+ 6% 3.64

Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

10 %

52 %47 %

1.92 → 1.92

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.92 → 3.93

20 %

29 %24 %

3.65 → 3.64

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Hertha Berlin 1Draw 1Magdeburg 2

Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

Key facts

Hertha BSC Berlin come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hertha Berlin

Magdeburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hertha Berlin (10–4)

Magdeburg (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hertha Berlin

Magdeburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hertha Berlin

Magdeburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hertha Berlin	Magdeburg
Points	9	6
xPoints	4.8	3
xG per match	1.9	0.91
xGA per match	1.3	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.25

Playing style	Hertha Berlin	Magdeburg
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.56	0.32
xT per match	1.1	0.97
xTA per match	0.88	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	28	18
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.22
Entries into the box per match	19	11
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.69
Passes per match	307	368
Passes against per match	301	403
Switches of play per match	21.1	39.6
Long balls per match	35	48

Set pieces	Hertha Berlin	Magdeburg
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.03
Corners per match	6.3	6
Corners against per match	4.3	3.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.58	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.85	0.55

Other	Hertha Berlin	Magdeburg
Throw-in control	0.76	0.8

The goalkeepers	Marius Gersbeck (Hertha Berlin)	Dominik Reimann (Magdeburg)
Saves	10	13
Save %	71%	68%
xG prevented	61%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hertha Berlin vs Magdeburg according to our model?

The model gives Hertha Berlin a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hertha Berlin 44%, draw 27%, Magdeburg 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.