01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Augsburg or draw (1X)64%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
BundesligaWWK Arena, Augsburg21°0,1 mm18 km/h
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AugsburgPossession controlvs
Schalke 04The model's lean: 1 · Augsburg (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.78 (+15 %)
Augsburg – Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
1 · Augsburg 36%X 30%34% Schalke 04 · 2
36%
30%
34%
Analysis: Augsburg – Schalke 04
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: The model rates the hosts with a slight edge, giving them a 36% chance of winning, but the underlying numbers tell a story of balance. Both teams are creating expected goals in the region of 1.39 and 1.36, respectively, which aligns with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12%. It’s a matchup where fine margins might define the outcome.
Despite the model's slight preference for Augsburg, the probabilities are quite even, with Schalke given a 34% winning chance. The draw emerges as a particularly intriguing option, valued at 3.6 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This scenario carries a 9% edge according to the model’s analysis, signaling it as an opportunity for value-seeking bettors.
With a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and a similarly close 56% chance for both teams to score, there’s potential for goals, albeit not without tactical caution. However, the most substantial betting angle lies in the draw, especially given the statistical equilibrium between the sides. The 1-1 scoreline not only emerges as the most likely but also encapsulates the evenness of the contest. Thus, betting on a stalemate holds the sharpest edge for this Bundesliga clash.
AugsburgForm WDWWL
League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #14xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Fabian RiederRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
- Anton KadeRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
- Mert KömürFxG 0.22 · xT 0.04
Schalke 04Form WWLDL
Key players
- Moussa SyllaFxG 0.69 · xT 0.31
- Hasan KuruçayCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.26
- Ron SchallenbergCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.02
- Numbers from DFB-Pokal 2026
Match prediction: Augsburg – Schalke 04
Predicted score matrix
Schalke 04 →
Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–18.3%
0–25.9%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.5%
1–112.4%
1–28.2%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.4%
2–25.7%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.9%
3–22.6%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,39–1,36
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
@2.28EV+4%
Over 2,552%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Augsburg or draw (1X)64%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Alexis Claude-Maurice to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Moussa Sylla to score25%
- Ron Schallenberg to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.78PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Under 2.548% probability@2.28PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- X · Draw30% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Augsburg | X | 2 · Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.10 | EV+ 9% 3.60 | EV+ 7% 3.15 |
| Betsson | 2.12 | EV+ 9% 3.60 | EV+ 8% 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.10 | EV+ 9% 3.60 | EV+ 7% 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | EV+ 15% 3.78 | EV+ 7% 3.17 |
Odds updated 28 Aug, 09:43
Odds movement
10 %
46 %41 %
2.17 → 2.18
X+2 %
28 %23 %
3.71 → 3.78
2+3 %
33 %28 %
3.08 → 3.17
Over 2,5+1 %
60 %55 %
1.65 → 1.67
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Augsburg
Augsburg (45–61)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Augsburg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Augsburg
| The goalkeepers | Finn Dahmen (Augsburg) | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 106 | – |
| Save % | 64% | – |
| xG prevented | 40% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Augsburg vs Schalke 04 according to our model?
The model gives Augsburg a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Augsburg 36%, draw 30%, Schalke 04 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.