BundesligaEuropa-Park Stadion, Freiburg15°9 km/h

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    FreiburgFreiburgBalanced & physical
    vs
    Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia MönchengladbachBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Freiburg (59%)

    Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga

    1 · Freiburg 59%X 24%17% Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2

    Analysis: Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Freiburg's recent dominance in head-to-head matches is evident, boasting three wins and a draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach since 2022. While this sample is small, it does indicate a clear advantage. The model assigns Freiburg a 59% chance of victory, reinforcing their edge. Freiburg's expected goals (xG) of 2.00 further solidifies their attacking superiority, especially when compared to Gladbach's 1.12 xG. The hosts appear poised to exploit defensive vulnerabilities, as the visitors have an alarming xGA of 4.2 per match.

    In terms of style, both teams are characterized as balanced and physical, but Freiburg's consistency in recent encounters should weigh on the visitors. Given the expected goals and the model's lean, the most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0 point towards a close but clear triumph for Freiburg. The probabilities also suggest a 59% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting the potential for Gladbach to find the net even if a win seems unlikely.

    For bettors, the over 2.5 goals market offers intriguing value at a 60% likelihood. Freiburg's strong form and Gladbach's defensive struggles set the stage for a match that could favor goals despite the competitive nature of both sides.

    FreiburgFreiburg
    Form LDLWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #11xP/match #6Points #2
    Key players
    • Igor MatanovicFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
    • Patrick OsterhageFxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
    • Maximilian EggesteinCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.05
    Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
    Form DWLWL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #9xP/match #18Points #17
    Key players
    • Rocco ReitzRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
    • Haris TabakovicFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
    • Nico ElvediCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach

    Predicted score matrix

    Borussia Mönchengladbach →
    Freiburg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–14.6%
    0–22.8%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–110.2%
    1–25.5%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.9%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–05.9%
    3–16.6%
    3–23.7%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–04.7%
    4+–15.2%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,00–1,12
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.41
    Over 2,560%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Freiburg to win59%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.04

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Freiburg to win59%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Johan Manzambi to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Johan Manzambi to score23%
    • Joseph Michael Scally to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Freiburg59% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • 1 · Freiburg59% probability@1.70BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    • 1 · Freiburg59% probability@1.70NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FreiburgX2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    1.70    		3.854.60
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    1.70    		3.854.65
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    1.70    		3.854.60

    Odds updated 7 Sept, 09:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Freiburg win since 4 September — the odds have shortened from 1.85 to 1.70 (−8%).

    1-8 %
    56 %51 %

    1.85 → 1.70

    X+7 %
    27 %22 %

    3.60 → 3.85

    2+13 %
    24 %19 %

    4.10 → 4.65

    Over 2,5-3 %
    62 %57 %

    1.63 → 1.58

    Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Freiburg 3Draw 1Borussia Mönchengladbach 0
    Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Freiburg
    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Freiburg (4–1)
    Borussia Mönchengladbach (0–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Freiburg
    Matthias Ginter: 65 passningar, xT 0.23GinterPhilipp Lienhart: 58 passningar, xT 0.16LienhartMaximilian Eggestein: 49 passningar, xT 0.01EggesteinJordy Makengo: 46 passningar, xT 0MakengoMio Backhaus: 33 passningar, xT 0.03BackhausLukas Kübler: 32 passningar, xT 0.04KüblerYannik Engelhardt: 27 passningar, xT -0.04EngelhardtNiklas Beste: 23 passningar, xT 0.09BesteYuito Suzuki: 21 passningar, xT 0.01SuzukiDerry Scherhant: 20 passningar, xT -0.11ScherhantCyriaque Irie: 14 passningar, xT 0Irie
    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    Kevin Diks: 72 passningar, xT 0.07DiksPhilipp Sander: 62 passningar, xT 0.09SanderKo Itakura: 48 passningar, xT 0.17ItakuraMoritz Nicolas: 35 passningar, xT 0.02NicolasKevin Stöger: 32 passningar, xT 0StögerDaiki Hashioka: 26 passningar, xT 0HashiokaWael Mohya: 19 passningar, xT 0.08MohyaAxel Hugo Bolin: 18 passningar, xT 0.05BolinRobin Hack: 18 passningar, xT 0.02HackMathieu Nguefack: 18 passningar, xT 0.02NguefackLukas Ullrich: 17 passningar, xT 0.13Ullrich
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Freiburg
    Matthias Ginter: 65 passningar, xT 0.23GinterPhilipp Lienhart: 58 passningar, xT 0.16LienhartMaximilian Eggestein: 49 passningar, xT 0.01EggesteinJordy Makengo: 46 passningar, xT 0MakengoMio Backhaus: 33 passningar, xT 0.03BackhausLukas Kübler: 32 passningar, xT 0.04KüblerYannik Engelhardt: 27 passningar, xT -0.04EngelhardtNiklas Beste: 23 passningar, xT 0.09BesteYuito Suzuki: 21 passningar, xT 0.01SuzukiDerry Scherhant: 20 passningar, xT -0.11ScherhantCyriaque Irie: 14 passningar, xT 0Irie
    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    Kevin Diks: 72 passningar, xT 0.07DiksPhilipp Sander: 62 passningar, xT 0.09SanderKo Itakura: 48 passningar, xT 0.17ItakuraMoritz Nicolas: 35 passningar, xT 0.02NicolasKevin Stöger: 32 passningar, xT 0StögerDaiki Hashioka: 26 passningar, xT 0HashiokaWael Mohya: 19 passningar, xT 0.08MohyaAxel Hugo Bolin: 18 passningar, xT 0.05BolinRobin Hack: 18 passningar, xT 0.02HackMathieu Nguefack: 18 passningar, xT 0.02NguefackLukas Ullrich: 17 passningar, xT 0.13Ullrich

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
    Points30
    xPoints20.1
    xG per match21
    xGA per match0.624.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.660.32
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.58
    Playing styleFreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
    Build-up efficiency0.310.28
    Field tilt0.540.44
    xT per match1.21.4
    xTA per match0.382
    Won balls, offensive half2824
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.20.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.110.34
    Entries into the box per match1515
    Entries into the box against725
    Pass completion %0.820.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.790.74
    Passes per match442421
    Passes against per match377371
    Switches of play per match38.717.1
    Long balls per match3622
    Set piecesFreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
    xG from free kicks0.370
    Corners per match6.16
    Corners against per match5.17
    xG per corner0.10.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.2
    First touch, offensive corners %0.170.17
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.5
    OtherFreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
    Throw-in control0.910.68
    The goalkeepersMio Backhaus (Freiburg)Moritz Nicolas (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
    Saves28
    Save %67%73%
    xG prevented51%80%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach according to our model?

    The model gives Freiburg a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Freiburg 59%, draw 24%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 17%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.