Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Bundesliga5 September 2026Weserstadion, Bremen17°26 km/h

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Werder BremenBalanced & physical

RB LeipzigBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · RB Leipzig (58%)

1 · Werder Bremen 20%X 22%58% RB Leipzig · 2

20%

22%

58%

Analysis: Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The TEXT incorrectly presents the season-level xG/xGA figures as head-to-head statistics. The FACTS list "xG per match" and "xGA per match" as separate season metrics, not figures specific to the Bremen–Leipzig matchups.

Corrected text:

Werder Bremen's recent form is a tale of struggles, currently on a four-match losing streak. Scoring has been an issue, while their defense looks increasingly porous. Opposite them, RB Leipzig are in a goal-scoring groove, having found the net in nine straight league games. Despite both teams being tagged as balanced and physical, the numbers point to a distinct imbalance in quality and current dynamics.

The model's probabilities favor Leipzig at 58% to win, with Bremen's chances at just 20%. Leipzig's ability to consistently score contrasts sharply with Bremen's defensive vulnerabilities, as seen in the expected goals: 2.03 for Leipzig compared to Bremen's 1.26. This implies that Leipzig are more than capable of breaking through Bremen's lines and finding the back of the net multiple times.

Historically speaking, the last four encounters between these sides have been dominated by Leipzig, winning three and drawing one. Though the sample size is small, Leipzig's overall superiority is further underscored by their season averages of 4.2 xG per match compared to Bremen's 0.62, while Bremen's xGA sits at 2.0 against Leipzig's 1.0. This disparity helps explain why Leipzig have consistently outperformed Bremen in these matchups.

The odds suggest value in backing Leipzig at 1.88 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, with an 8% edge based on the model's estimated 58% probability of an away win. For those keen on the goal markets, the over 2.5 goals is favored at 64%, leaning towards a likely 1-2 or 0-2 outcome. While Bremen might pose some threat, Leipzig's attacking form and Bremen's defensive woes point to a confident Leipzig victory, with 1-2 the most plausible scoreline.

Werder Bremen

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #18xP/match #13Points #15

Key players

Marco GrüllFxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
Jens StageCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.09
Marco FriedlCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07

RB Leipzig

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #3xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

David RaumLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.28
Assan OuedraogoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.08
Yan DiomandeRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.28

Match prediction: Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig

Predicted score matrix

RB Leipzig →

Werder Bremen →

0–04.0%

0–17.3%

0–27.7%

0–35.2%

0–4+4.2%

1–04.4%

1–19.8%

1–29.7%

1–36.6%

1–4+5.3%

2–03.0%

2–16.0%

2–26.1%

2–34.1%

2–4+3.3%

3–01.2%

3–12.5%

3–22.5%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.4%

4+–00.5%

4+–11.0%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-17%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,26–2,03

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@2.71

Over 2,564%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

RB Leipzig to win58%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

RB Leipzig to win58%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Christoph Baumgartner to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Christoph Baumgartner to score31%
Nicolas Seiwald to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · RB Leipzig58% probability@2.00Bet365EV+15%reference odds
2 · RB Leipzig58% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
2 · RB Leipzig58% probability@1.75BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Werder Bremen	X	2 · RB Leipzig
Bet365	3.20	3.75	EV+ 15% 2.00
Betsafe	4.10	4.00	EV+ 1% 1.75
Betsson	4.10	4.00	EV+ 1% 1.75
Nordicbet	4.10	4.00	EV+ 1% 1.75
Pinnacle	4.17	4.30	EV+ 2% 1.76

Odds updated 4 Sept, 01:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an RB Leipzig win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.76 (−10%).

1+25 %

31 %21 %

3.34 → 4.17

X+9 %

28 %18 %

3.93 → 4.30

2-10 %

56 %46 %

1.95 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Werder Bremen 0Draw 1RB Leipzig 3

Goals: 3–8 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Werder Bremen have lost 4 in a row.
RB Leipzig have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Werder Bremen

RB Leipzig

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Werder Bremen (1–4)

RB Leipzig (3–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Werder Bremen

RB Leipzig

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Werder Bremen

RB Leipzig

The teams in numbers

Performance	Werder Bremen	RB Leipzig
Points	0	3
xPoints	0.8	2.8
xG per match	0.62	4.2
xGA per match	2	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.58
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.66	0.32

Playing style	Werder Bremen	RB Leipzig
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.46	0.56
xT per match	0.38	2
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	28	29
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.08	0.19
Entries into the box per match	7	25
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.8	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.66
Passes per match	377	371
Passes against per match	442	421
Switches of play per match	29.5	33.2
Long balls per match	37	34

Set pieces	Werder Bremen	RB Leipzig
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	5.1	7
Corners against per match	6.1	6
xG per corner	0.03	0.2
xGA per corner against	0.1	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.83	0.83

Other	Werder Bremen	RB Leipzig
Throw-in control	0.83	0.5

The goalkeepers	Amos Pieper (Werder Bremen)	Maarten Vandevoordt (RB Leipzig)
Saves	3	4
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig according to our model?

The model gives RB Leipzig a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Werder Bremen 20%, draw 22%, RB Leipzig 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.