Kalamata vs OFI Crete Prediction: Away win 39% (17 Oct 2026)

Greek Super League17 October 202617°13 km/h

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KalamataCounter-attacks & crosses

OFI CretePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · OFI Crete (39%)

1 · Kalamata 33%X 28%39% OFI Crete · 2

33%

28%

39%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kalamata vs OFI Crete (Greek Super League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Kalamata win 33%, draw 28%, OFI Crete win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Kalamata 1.20, OFI Crete 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Kalamata or draw 61%, OFI Crete or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Kalamata – OFI Crete

Anna Karlsson · 9 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Since 2023, we've only seen Kalamata and OFI Crete square off twice, a sample too small to overshadow their current form and expected goals. Yet, one thing becomes clear: OFI Crete's ability to consistently find the net. They've scored in eight consecutive league matches, a streak that hints at a resilient attacking prowess. This is a stark contrast to Kalamata's counter-attacking and crossing style, which may struggle to keep up against a team that leans on possession control.

As we dig deeper into recent performances, the visitors are ahead in the points tally with 10 compared to Kalamata's 4. However, Kalamata's expected points tell a different story, edging out OFI Crete 6.6 to 6.1. This suggests that the hosts have perhaps been unlucky, with performances not quite translating into results. Their higher xG per match of 1.1 compared to OFI's 0.99 reinforces this narrative. Yet, defensively, Kalamata's higher expected goals against (1.6) could be their Achilles' heel against a side that has shown such scoring consistency.

The model's probabilities give a slight edge to OFI Crete with a 39% win likelihood, while the hosts trail at 33%. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 or 0-1, reflect the tight nature of this matchup and the expected goals numbers—Kalamata 1.20 and OFI Crete 1.28—suggest a narrow margin. The over/under 2.5 goals market leans under at 45%, with both teams to score sitting at a coin-flip 51%.

In the betting markets, a standout value appears in backing OFI Crete at odds of 2.70 with Betfair. Given their scoring streak and Kalamata's defensive frailties, there's a calculated risk here that aligns with the probabilities. While a 1-1 draw is the most likely scenario, OFI's odds present an enticing proposition for punters looking for that extra edge.

Kalamata

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #10xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Ahmad Mendes MoreiraLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
Erik HamzaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.02
Jovanny David Bolívar AlvaradoFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02

OFI Crete

Form WLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #11xP/match #9Points #4

Key players

Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Kenan KodroFxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
Giannis ApostolakisCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Kalamata – OFI Crete

Predicted score matrix

OFI Crete →

Kalamata →

0–08.8%

0–110.3%

0–26.8%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.7%

1–113.3%

1–28.2%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.1%

2–17.7%

2–24.9%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.4%

3–13.1%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,20–1,28

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.65

Over 2,545%

@2.20

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance OFI Crete or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance OFI Crete or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Thiago Thomas Nuss to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira to score30%
Erik Hamza to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · OFI Crete39% probability@3.00Bet365EV+17%reference odds
2 · OFI Crete39% probability@2.98BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
2 · OFI Crete39% probability@2.98NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kalamata	X	2 · OFI Crete
Bet365	2.35	3.10	EV+ 17% 3.00
Betsafe	2.35	3.05	EV+ 17% 2.98
Nordicbet	2.35	3.05	EV+ 17% 2.98

Odds updated 9 Oct, 07:38

Statistics

Key facts

OFI Crete FC have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kalamata

OFI Crete

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kalamata (6–8)

OFI Crete (8–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kalamata

OFI Crete

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kalamata

OFI Crete

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kalamata	OFI Crete
Points	4	10
xPoints	6.6	6.1
xG per match	1.1	0.99
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.42	0.3

Playing style	Kalamata	OFI Crete
Build-up efficiency	0.26	0.28
Field tilt	0.34	0.43
xT per match	0.98	0.82
xTA per match	1.3	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	26	20
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	8
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.75
Passes per match	247	413
Passes against per match	329	362
Switches of play per match	20	31.7
Long balls per match	25	35

Set pieces	Kalamata	OFI Crete
xG from free kicks	0.12	0
Corners per match	3	2.8
Corners against per match	6.1	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.54

Other	Kalamata	OFI Crete
Throw-in control	0.69	0.79

The goalkeepers	Ioannis Gelios (Kalamata)	Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete)
Saves	10	17
Save %	59%	81%
xG prevented	37%	78%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kalamata

Fixtures, form & tips

OFI Crete

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kalamata vs OFI Crete according to our model?

The model gives OFI Crete a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kalamata 33%, draw 28%, OFI Crete 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Kalamata vs OFI Crete?

The model expects 1.20 goals (xG) for Kalamata and 1.28 for OFI Crete, 2.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Kalamata or draw (1X) 61%, OFI Crete or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.