01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Olympiacos to win75%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Greek Super League16°6 km/h
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PanetolikosLow block & directvs
OlympiacosPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Olympiacos (75%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.25 (+3 %)
Panetolikos vs Olympiacos · Greek Super League
1 · Panetolikos 9%X 16%75% Olympiacos · 2
16%
75%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Panetolikos vs Olympiacos (Greek Super League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Panetolikos win 9%, draw 16%, Olympiacos win 75%. Expected goals (xG): Panetolikos 0.75, Olympiacos 2.08. Most likely score: 0-2 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Panetolikos or draw 25%, Olympiacos or draw 91%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Panetolikos – Olympiacos
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
A striking 75% win probability for Olympiacos underscores the mismatch as they head to GFS. The numbers suggest a significant edge for the visitors, supported by their high xG of 2.08, indicating a potent attacking display against Panetolikos' vulnerable defense. The hosts have struggled with a direct approach that leaves their backline exposed, facing a possession-heavy and high-pressing Olympiacos side likely to exploit these weaknesses.
The head-to-head record since 2023, though limited to four encounters, slightly favors Olympiacos with three wins and a draw. However, these past results hold less weight than the clear form differential. The expected goals stats paint a grim picture for the hosts, who average just 0.91 xG per match while conceding 1.8 xGA, suggesting they might struggle to find the net against an Olympiacos defense allowing only 0.58 xGA per game.
Given the 54% probability of over 2.5 goals, the model suggests the potential for a match that leans towards more scoring. The most likely scorelines of 0-2 and 0-1, both favoring Olympiacos, align with an anticipated dominant performance from the visitors. At odds of 1.55 with Bet365 for an Olympiacos win, it appears to hold value considering the overwhelming statistical support.
PanetolikosForm WWWLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #14xT #12xP/match #11Points #6
Key players
- Charalampos MavriasRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Diego Esteban PerezRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
- Christian Manrique DíazLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
OlympiacosForm WWDLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #5
Key players
- Konstantinos FortounisFxG 0.12 · xT 0.59
- Ayoub El KaabiFxG 0.79 · xT 0.01
- Gustavo Adolfo Puerta MolanoCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Panetolikos – Olympiacos
Predicted score matrix
Olympiacos →
Panetolikos →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–112.0%
0–212.8%
0–38.9%
0–4+7.5%
1
1–04.1%
1–19.5%
1–29.6%
1–36.6%
1–4+5.6%
2
2–01.7%
2–13.5%
2–23.6%
2–32.5%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–00.4%
3–10.9%
3–20.9%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.2%
4+–30.1%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-213%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.0-39%
Expected goals
0,75–2,08
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@1.95
Over 2,554%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Olympiacos to win75%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score42%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score42%
- Novica Eraković to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.532% probability@3.25Bet365EV+3%reference odds
- Both teams to score: Yes46% probability@2.20Bet365EV+2%reference odds
- 2 · Olympiacos75% probability@1.36Bet365EV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Panetolikos | X | 2 · Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 4.33 | EV+ 2% 1.36 |
Odds updated 9 Oct, 07:05
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPanetolikos 0Draw 1Olympiacos 3
Goals: 0–5 (⌀ 1,2)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Panetolikos
Olympiacos
Panetolikos (8–7)
Olympiacos (4–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Panetolikos
Olympiacos
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Panetolikos
Olympiacos
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Panetolikos | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 10 |
| xPoints | 5.8 | 8.4 |
| xG per match | 0.91 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 0.58 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Panetolikos | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.76 |
| xT per match | 0.65 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.52 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 261 | 432 |
| Passes against per match | 383 | 228 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.7 | 35.2 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Panetolikos | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.2 | 9.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| Other | Panetolikos | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Yevhen Kucherenko (Panetolikos) | Stefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 12 |
| Save % | 72% | 86% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 66% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Panetolikos vs Olympiacos according to our model?
The model gives Olympiacos a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panetolikos 9%, draw 16%, Olympiacos 75%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Panetolikos vs Olympiacos?
The model expects 0.75 goals (xG) for Panetolikos and 2.08 for Olympiacos, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Panetolikos or draw (1X) 25%, Olympiacos or draw (X2) 91% and no draw (12) 84%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.