PAOK vs Kalamata Prediction: Home win 78% (12 Oct 2026)

Greek Super League12 October 202619°6,5 mm25 km/h

PAOKBalanced & physical

KalamataCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · PAOK (78%)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · PAOK 78%X 13%9% Kalamata · 2

78%

13%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for PAOK vs Kalamata (Greek Super League, Monday, 12 October 2026): PAOK win 78%, draw 13%, Kalamata win 9%. Expected goals (xG): PAOK 2.66, Kalamata 0.70. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: PAOK or draw 91%, Kalamata or draw 22%. Prediction updated Friday, 2 October 2026.

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Analysis: PAOK – Kalamata

Erik Lindberg · 8 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

PAOK's ability to find the back of the net in nine consecutive league matches underscores their attacking consistency. This offensive reliability is bolstered by an expected goals (xG) rate of 1.9 per match, significantly higher than Kalamata's 1.1. Playing at home, where they historically secure victories in 68% of their games, the hosts are well-positioned to maintain their scoring streak against a defensively porous opponent.

Kalamata, on the other hand, will likely struggle to contain this offensive threat. Their defensive metrics reflect vulnerability, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.6 per match compared to PAOK's 1.4. Given their reliance on counter-attacks and crosses, they may find it difficult to generate scoring opportunities against a team that emphasizes balance and physicality.

The model heavily favors PAOK with a 78% win probability, and the most probable outcomes—2-0 and 3-0—suggest a comfortable win for the home side. While the over 2.5 goals market is set at 65%, the expected rain could temper the goal tally somewhat. Still, given PAOK's form and Kalamata's defensive frailties, backing the over appears reasonable.

For those seeking value, there may be an opportunity with PAOK’s win odds. With most likely scorelines pointing to a multi-goal margin, backing PAOK to win with a -1.5 handicap could offer better returns. However, the safest play remains a straightforward PAOK win, given both teams’ current form and performance metrics.

PAOK

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #6xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Shola ShoretireLWxG 0.51 · xT -0.07
Abdul Rahman BabaLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.40

Kalamata

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #10xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Ahmad Mendes MoreiraLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
Erik HamzaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.02
Jovanny David Bolívar AlvaradoFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: PAOK – Kalamata

Predicted score matrix

Kalamata →

PAOK →

0–03.7%

0–12.2%

0–20.9%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–09.0%

1–16.7%

1–22.3%

1–30.5%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.3%

2–18.6%

2–23.0%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–010.9%

3–17.6%

3–22.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–013.8%

4+–19.6%

4+–23.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.3-011%
3.1-09%
4.2-19%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,66–0,70

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@2.60

Over 2,565%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

PAOK to win78%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

PAOK to win78%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Pape Cherif Ndiaye to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Pape Cherif Ndiaye to score36%
Erik Hamza to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · PAOK	X	2 · Kalamata
Betsafe	1.20	6.10	10.50
LeoVegas	1.19	6.25	11.00
Nordicbet	1.20	6.10	10.50

Odds updated 9 Oct, 02:37

Odds movement

1+1 %

80 %75 %

1.18 → 1.19

X0 %

17 %12 %

6.25 → 6.25

20 %

11 %6 %

11.00 → 11.00

LeoVegas · 11 recorded price levels · 05/10/2026 → 09/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

PAOK Thessaloniki have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
PAOK Thessaloniki win 68% of their home matches all-time (34 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

PAOK

Kalamata

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

PAOK (12–5)

Kalamata (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PAOK

Kalamata

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PAOK

Kalamata

The teams in numbers

Performance	PAOK	Kalamata
Points	12	4
xPoints	9	6.6
xG per match	1.9	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.42

Playing style	PAOK	Kalamata
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.26
Field tilt	0.46	0.34
xT per match	1	0.98
xTA per match	1.2	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.33
Entries into the box per match	13	9
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.72	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.66
Passes per match	292	247
Passes against per match	375	329
Switches of play per match	16.8	20
Long balls per match	26	25

Set pieces	PAOK	Kalamata
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.12
Corners per match	3.8	3
Corners against per match	4.5	6.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.65

Other	PAOK	Kalamata
Throw-in control	0.64	0.69

The goalkeepers	Jiri Pavlenka (PAOK)	Ioannis Gelios (Kalamata)
Saves	14	10
Save %	78%	59%
xG prevented	73%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

PAOK

Fixtures, form & tips

Kalamata

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins PAOK vs Kalamata according to our model?

The model gives PAOK a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PAOK 78%, draw 13%, Kalamata 9%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in PAOK vs Kalamata?

The model expects 2.66 goals (xG) for PAOK and 0.70 for Kalamata, 3.36 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

PAOK or draw (1X) 91%, Kalamata or draw (X2) 22% and no draw (12) 87%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.