Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos Prediction: Home win 39% (11 Oct 2026)

Greek Super League11 October 202620°11 km/h

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OlympiacosPossession & high press

PanathinaikosPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Olympiacos (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Panathinaikos @ 3.54 (+9 %)

1 · Olympiacos 39%X 30%31% Panathinaikos · 2

39%

30%

31%

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Analysis: Olympiacos – Panathinaikos

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Olympiacos have a 68% home win rate, yet it's Panathinaikos who enter with a five-match winning streak. A clash of form against pedigree. Current standings and expected points favor the visitors, their 15 points and xPoints lead highlighting a better performance so far. However, the model leans towards Olympiacos, giving them a slight edge at 39% to win, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw at 13%.

Despite Panathinaikos' superior xG per match at 2.7, they face a stubborn defense, with Olympiacos allowing just 0.58 xGA per game. Olympiacos' high press could disrupt Panathinaikos' possession game, making this a tightly contested affair. Over 2.5 goals sits at just 45%, suggesting a more conservative encounter, while the probability of both teams scoring is evenly poised at 50%.

The small head-to-head sample favors Olympiacos, yet Panathinaikos' recent form can't be ignored. The model's numbers have baked in these dynamics, hinting at an Olympiacos edge but with little value without the right odds. If you're looking for a betting angle, consider the draw at 30%. It's a decent play given both teams' strengths, the model's leanings, and the potential for a 1-1 conclusion.

Olympiacos

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #5

Key players

Konstantinos FortounisFxG 0.12 · xT 0.59
Ayoub El KaabiFxG 0.79 · xT 0.01
Gustavo Adolfo Puerta MolanoCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12

Panathinaikos

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Cyriel DessersFxG 1.25 · xT -0.06
Vicente TabordaRWxG 0.98 · xT 0.34
Santino Andino ValenciaLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Olympiacos – Panathinaikos

Predicted score matrix

Panathinaikos →

Olympiacos →

0–08.9%

0–19.3%

0–25.5%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.0%

1–113.2%

1–27.3%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.5%

2–18.5%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.3%

3–13.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,33–1,13

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.71

Over 2,545%

@2.13

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Olympiacos or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Olympiacos or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals55%
João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score35%
Santiago Hezze to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Panathinaikos31% probability@3.54PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.34PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Olympiacos	X	2 · Panathinaikos
Pinnacle	2.09	EV+ 1% 3.34	EV+ 9% 3.54

Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:05

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Olympiacos 4Draw 3Panathinaikos 1

Goals: 10–5 (⌀ 1,9)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Olympiacos Piraeus dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
Panathinaikos Athens come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Olympiacos Piraeus win 68% of their home matches all-time (34 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Olympiacos

Panathinaikos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Olympiacos (4–2)

Panathinaikos (12–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Olympiacos

Panathinaikos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Olympiacos

Panathinaikos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Olympiacos	Panathinaikos
Points	10	15
xPoints	8.4	10.3
xG per match	1.6	2.7
xGA per match	0.58	0.62
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.1

Playing style	Olympiacos	Panathinaikos
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.76	0.79
xT per match	1.3	1.7
xTA per match	0.52	0.6
Won balls, offensive half	32	27
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.3
Entries into the box per match	19	20
Entries into the box against	6	6
Pass completion %	0.77	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.78
Passes per match	432	501
Passes against per match	228	249
Switches of play per match	35.2	32.4
Long balls per match	42	34

Set pieces	Olympiacos	Panathinaikos
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.08
Corners per match	9.2	7.1
Corners against per match	2.6	2.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.77	0.62

Other	Olympiacos	Panathinaikos
Throw-in control	0.75	0.7

The goalkeepers	Stefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos)	Ignacio Peña Sotorres (Panathinaikos)
Saves	12	12
Save %	86%	86%
xG prevented	66%	72%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Olympiacos

Fixtures, form & tips

Panathinaikos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos according to our model?

The model gives Olympiacos a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Olympiacos 39%, draw 30%, Panathinaikos 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.