01 · 2 legs
Safe
- PAOK to win78%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Greek Super League19°25 km/h
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PAOKBalanced & physicalvs
KalamataCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · PAOK (78%)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
PAOK vs Kalamata · Greek Super League
1 · PAOK 78%X 13%9% Kalamata · 2
78%
13%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: PAOK – Kalamata
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Between PAOK and Kalamata, the matchup is tipped heavily in favor of the hosts. Though their head-to-head history is brief, the numbers indicate a clear advantage for PAOK in this clash. With a 78% chance of winning and a model leaning towards them, PAOK's dominance is evident across the board. The expected goals tell the story: PAOK at 2.66 compared to Kalamata's 0.70 underscores the substantial gap in offensive capabilities.
PAOK's current form is hard to overlook. They have consistently found the net in their last nine league matches, suggesting that breaking through Kalamata’s defense should not be an arduous task. Their play style—a balanced mix of physicality and precision—only adds to their home advantage, where they historically win 68% of their games. Meanwhile, Kalamata's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses is unlikely to yield much against a team that rarely lets its guard down at home.
The likely scorelines of 2-0 or 3-0 for PAOK reflect their superiority and align with the 65% probability of the game producing over 2.5 goals. Although the chance of both teams scoring stands at 47%, Kalamata's underwhelming expected goals and goals-against metrics do little to bolster confidence in them breaching PAOK's defense.
Evaluating the betting landscape, the value proposition lies in backing PAOK at a decent odd, if available, considering the overwhelming data in their favor. Given the circumstances, a play on PAOK to win with a clean sheet could offer additional intrigue. Look for odds on that specific angle, potentially offering a sharper edge.
PAOKForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #6xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Shola ShoretireLWxG 0.51 · xT -0.07
- Abdul Rahman BabaLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
- Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.40
KalamataForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #10xP/match #7Points #10
Key players
- Ahmad Mendes MoreiraLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Erik HamzaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.02
- Jovanny David Bolívar AlvaradoFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: PAOK – Kalamata
Predicted score matrix
Kalamata →
PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–12.2%
0–20.9%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–09.0%
1–16.7%
1–22.3%
1–30.5%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–012.3%
2–18.6%
2–23.0%
2–30.7%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–010.9%
3–17.6%
3–22.7%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–013.8%
4+–19.6%
4+–23.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.3-011%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,66–0,70
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
–
Over 2,565%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- PAOK to win78%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Pape Cherif Ndiaye to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Pape Cherif Ndiaye to score36%
- Erik Hamza to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- PAOK Thessaloniki have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- PAOK Thessaloniki win 68% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
PAOK
Kalamata
PAOK (12–5)
Kalamata (6–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
PAOK
Kalamata
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
PAOK
Kalamata
The teams in numbers
| Performance | PAOK | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 4 |
| xPoints | 9 | 6.6 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| Playing style | PAOK | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.98 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 292 | 247 |
| Passes against per match | 375 | 329 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 20 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 25 |
| Set pieces | PAOK | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 6.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| Other | PAOK | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Jiri Pavlenka (PAOK) | Ioannis Gelios (Kalamata) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 10 |
| Save % | 78% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 73% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins PAOK vs Kalamata according to our model?
The model gives PAOK a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PAOK 78%, draw 13%, Kalamata 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.