01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AEK Athens to win78%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Greek Super League22°11 km/h
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AEK AthensPossession controlvs
OFI CretePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · AEK Athens (78%)
AEK Athens vs OFI Crete · Greek Super League
1 · AEK Athens 78%X 15%7% OFI Crete · 2
78%
15%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: AEK Athens – OFI Crete
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
AEK Athens' dominance over OFI Crete since 2023 is undeniable, winning all four encounters. This small sample size suggests a clear upper hand, but the real story lies in the hosts' current form. Unbeaten in their last 29 league matches, AEK Athens are a formidable force at home, where they have a remarkable 71% win rate. The side's ability to consistently find the net is showcased by scoring in eight consecutive league matches, a streak mirrored by the visitors but overshadowed by Athens' overall control.
The model gives AEK Athens a commanding 78% chance of victory, underscoring their solid position. Expected goals favor the home side substantially: 2.68 to OFI's meager 0.77. AEK Athens' possession-based style should comfortably dictate the tempo, further evidenced by their superior xPoints and xG metrics—8.3 and 2.2 per match, respectively. While OFI Crete also employs a possession control approach, their 0.99 xG per match doesn't inspire confidence against such a dominant opponent.
The probabilities also hint at a likely 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline in favor of Athens. With a 67% chance for over 2.5 goals, goals are expected, despite both teams to score hovering at a coin-flip 50%. The defensive capabilities of the home side, with an xGA of 0.94, suggest they can keep OFI at bay, despite the visitors' recent scoring streak.
Value surfaces in the betting markets with over 2.5 goals at 1.75 (Bookmaker X), well-aligned with the model's numbers. AEK's dominance, both historically and statistically, coupled with the likelihood of goals, makes this an attractive angle for those looking to capitalize on a well-analyzed match.
AEK AthensForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #4Points #3
Key players
- Luka JovićFxG 0.64 · xT 0.01
- Barnabás VargaFxG 0.48 · xT -0.03
- Lazaros RotaRBxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
OFI CreteForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #11xP/match #9Points #4
Key players
- Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
- Kenan KodroFxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
- Giannis ApostolakisCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: AEK Athens – OFI Crete
Predicted score matrix
OFI Crete →
AEK Athens →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–12.2%
0–20.9%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.3%
1–16.7%
1–22.5%
1–30.7%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–011.4%
2–18.8%
2–23.4%
2–30.9%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–010.2%
3–17.9%
3–23.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–013.0%
4+–110.1%
4+–23.9%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,68–0,77
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,533%
@2.45
Over 2,567%
@1.48
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AEK Athens to win78%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Luka Jović to score44%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Luka Jović to score44%
- Dimitrios Nikolaou to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · AEK Athens | X | 2 · OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.20 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 14:36
Odds movement
10 %
79 %74 %
1.20 → 1.20
X0 %
18 %13 %
6.00 → 6.00
2+10 %
11 %6 %
10.00 → 11.00
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAEK Athens 4Draw 0OFI Crete 0
Goals: 8–2 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- AEK Athens are unbeaten in their last 29 league matches.
- AEK Athens have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- OFI Crete FC have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- AEK Athens win 71% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
AEK Athens
OFI Crete
AEK Athens (13–3)
OFI Crete (8–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
AEK Athens
OFI Crete
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
AEK Athens
OFI Crete
The teams in numbers
| Performance | AEK Athens | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 10 |
| xPoints | 8.3 | 6.1 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 0.94 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.6 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | AEK Athens | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 0.76 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 445 | 413 |
| Passes against per match | 250 | 362 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.3 | 31.7 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 35 |
| Set pieces | AEK Athens | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.87 | 0.54 |
| Other | AEK Athens | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Alberto Brignoli (AEK Athens) | Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 17 |
| Save % | 78% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 81% | 78% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins AEK Athens vs OFI Crete according to our model?
The model gives AEK Athens a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AEK Athens 78%, draw 15%, OFI Crete 7%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.