J1 League29°0,4 mm7 km/h

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    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano OkayamaPossession & high press
    vs
    Tokyo VerdyTokyo VerdyLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Fagiano Okayama (46%)

    Fagiano Okayama – Tokyo Verdy · J1 League

    1 · Fagiano Okayama 46%X 30%25% Tokyo Verdy · 2

    Analysis: Fagiano Okayama – Tokyo Verdy

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Fagiano Okayama, with a 46% probability of winning according to the model, look set to take control against Tokyo Verdy in their upcoming J1 League clash. While the head-to-head record since 2023 shows Tokyo Verdy winning both encounters, the sample is too small to overshadow Okayama’s superior current form and expected goals statistics. The numbers suggest Okayama's combination of possession play and high pressing could outmaneuver Verdy's low defence and direct approach.

    Fagiano Okayama have not only accumulated more points than their opponents, but they also boast better xPoints, indicating a more sustainable performance level. Their 1.27 expected goals per game edge out Tokyo Verdy’s 0.99, and they shine defensively with an xGA of just 0.36. Despite Verdy's slight edge in xG per match at 1.6, this has not translated into real-world results, illustrated by their solitary point so far.

    The weather forecast of 27.3°C and rain could dampen attacking prospects, which aligns with the model's lean towards a low-scoring game. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at just 39%, and both teams to score hovers at 46%. With these conditions factored in, a gritty encounter is anticipated, potentially separating the sides by a single goal. A tight 1-0 victory for Okayama seems plausible, especially given their robust defensive metrics.

    Fagiano Okayama's home win presents a valuable betting opportunity at odds of 2.23 with Pinnacle, offering a modest 2% edge. While not a guarantee, this represents the sharpest angle for bettors seeking value in a contest where Okayama’s current form and tactical strengths align well against Tokyo Verdy’s vulnerabilities.

    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
    Form DLWLW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #5xP/match #3Points #10
    Key players
    • Lucas Marcos MeirelesFxG 0.30 · xT 0.01
    • Ataru EsakaCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
    • Oberdan Alionço de LimaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
    Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
    Form DLLDL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #10xP/match #5Points #16
    Key players
    • Itsuki SomenoFxG 0.14 · xT 0.27
    • Shuhei MizoguchiLWxG 0.61 · xT 0.07
    • Kazuya MiyaharaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Fagiano Okayama – Tokyo Verdy

    Predicted score matrix

    Tokyo Verdy →
    Fagiano Okayama →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.8%
    0–110.0%
    0–25.2%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–012.8%
    1–113.5%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.4%
    2–18.3%
    2–24.1%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–03.5%
    3–13.5%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-08%
    Expected goals
    1,27–0,99
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,561%
    @1.48
    Over 2,539%
    @2.48

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Fagiano Okayama to win46%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Fagiano Okayama to win46%
    • Under 2.5 goals61%
    • Lucas Marcos Meireles to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals39%
    • Lucas Marcos Meireles to score36%
    • Kazuya Miyahara to be booked17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Fagiano Okayama46% probability@2.23PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Fagiano OkayamaX2 · Tokyo Verdy
    Betsafe2.182.853.50
    Betsson2.182.853.50
    Nordicbet2.182.853.50
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 2%
    2.23    		2.953.74

    Odds updated 17 Aug, 01:35

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Fagiano Okayama 0Draw 0Tokyo Verdy 2
    Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Fagiano Okayama
    Tokyo Verdy
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Fagiano Okayama (2–2)
    Tokyo Verdy (2–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Fagiano Okayama
    Oberdan Alionço de Lima: 90 passningar, xT 0.01LimaYoshitake Suzuki: 67 passningar, xT 0.2SuzukiAtaru Esaka: 65 passningar, xT 0.16EsakaHiroshi Omori: 60 passningar, xT 0.28OmoriYugo Tatsuta: 59 passningar, xT 0.19TatsutaTowa Yamane: 58 passningar, xT 0.26YamaneKosuke Shirai: 56 passningar, xT 0.66ShiraiEiji Miyamoto: 46 passningar, xT 0.14MiyamotoSang Ho Na: 34 passningar, xT 0.1NaMasaya Matsumoto: 18 passningar, xT -0.01MatsumotoLucas Marcos Meireles: 14 passningar, xT 0.01Meireles
    Tokyo Verdy
    Naoki Hayashi: 82 passningar, xT 0.12HayashiKazuya Miyahara: 80 passningar, xT 0.24MiyaharaRei Hirakawa: 59 passningar, xT 0.03HirakawaKaito Suzuki: 58 passningar, xT 0.07SuzukiSoma Meshino: 54 passningar, xT 0.17MeshinoYuya Fukuda: 39 passningar, xT -0.12FukudaMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 36 passningar, xT 0.16OliveriaYosuke Uchida: 31 passningar, xT 0.2UchidaShuhei Mizoguchi: 29 passningar, xT 0.14MizoguchiItsuki Someno: 24 passningar, xT 0.55SomenoIssei Kumatoriya: 22 passningar, xT 0.03Kumatoriya
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Fagiano Okayama
    Oberdan Alionço de Lima: 90 passningar, xT 0.01LimaYoshitake Suzuki: 67 passningar, xT 0.2SuzukiAtaru Esaka: 65 passningar, xT 0.16EsakaHiroshi Omori: 60 passningar, xT 0.28OmoriYugo Tatsuta: 59 passningar, xT 0.19TatsutaTowa Yamane: 58 passningar, xT 0.26YamaneKosuke Shirai: 56 passningar, xT 0.66ShiraiEiji Miyamoto: 46 passningar, xT 0.14MiyamotoSang Ho Na: 34 passningar, xT 0.1NaMasaya Matsumoto: 18 passningar, xT -0.01MatsumotoLucas Marcos Meireles: 14 passningar, xT 0.01Meireles
    Tokyo Verdy
    Naoki Hayashi: 82 passningar, xT 0.12HayashiKazuya Miyahara: 80 passningar, xT 0.24MiyaharaRei Hirakawa: 59 passningar, xT 0.03HirakawaKaito Suzuki: 58 passningar, xT 0.07SuzukiSoma Meshino: 54 passningar, xT 0.17MeshinoYuya Fukuda: 39 passningar, xT -0.12FukudaMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 36 passningar, xT 0.16OliveriaYosuke Uchida: 31 passningar, xT 0.2UchidaShuhei Mizoguchi: 29 passningar, xT 0.14MizoguchiItsuki Someno: 24 passningar, xT 0.55SomenoIssei Kumatoriya: 22 passningar, xT 0.03Kumatoriya

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFagiano OkayamaTokyo Verdy
    Points31
    xPoints4.13.6
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match0.361.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.67
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.020.23
    Playing styleFagiano OkayamaTokyo Verdy
    Build-up efficiency0.320.28
    Field tilt0.690.25
    xT per match1.31
    xTA per match0.691.3
    Won balls, offensive half3025
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.320.22
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.21
    Entries into the box per match1910
    Entries into the box against616
    Pass completion %0.70.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.7
    Passes per match300282
    Passes against per match361618
    Switches of play per match197.5
    Long balls per match2821
    Set piecesFagiano OkayamaTokyo Verdy
    xG from free kicks0.040.01
    Corners per match6.33.5
    Corners against per match2.94.5
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.020
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.67
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.56
    OtherFagiano OkayamaTokyo Verdy
    Throw-in control0.750.79
    The goalkeepersShun Matsuda (Fagiano Okayama)Matheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria (Tokyo Verdy)
    Saves26
    Save %50%60%
    xG prevented41%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy according to our model?

    The model gives Fagiano Okayama a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fagiano Okayama 46%, draw 30%, Tokyo Verdy 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.