Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

J1 League22 August 2026Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima25°1,8 mm12 km/h

Läs på svenska

Kashima AntlersPossession control

Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Kashima Antlers (60%)

1 · Kashima Antlers 60%X 24%16% Avispa Fukuoka · 2

60%

24%

16%

Analysis: Kashima Antlers – Avispa Fukuoka

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Five straight wins for Kashima Antlers set the stage for their clash against Avispa Fukuoka, a side that has struggled to leave a mark in their encounters. While Kashima's winning streak paints a picture of current dominance, their head-to-head record since 2023 suggests a more balanced affair, with one win, four draws, and one loss against Avispa. However, with only six matches to weigh, this small sample carries less weight than their current form and superior expected goals.

Kashima Antlers command a 60% probability of taking home the win, according to the model, and their recent performances back it up. They show an expected goals figure of 1.62 compared to Avispa's meager 0.80, highlighting their attacking potency. On a tactical level, Kashima's possession-oriented style may help them control the game, especially under expected rainy conditions, which typically suppress goal-scoring opportunities and align with the model's cautious 44% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Avispa Fukuoka, known for a balanced and physical approach, may find it tough to break down Kashima’s defensive setup, reflected in their lower xG of 1.0 per match. Despite this, their tighter defense, conceding an xGA of 0.8, indicates they won't be easy to break down, hinting at a closely contested affair. However, Kashima's home strength, winning 57% of matches historically, further bolsters their credentials.

The most likely scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 to Kashima reflect a lean towards low-scoring, competitive football, with both teams to score sitting at just 45%. With rain on the horizon, the conditions look to favor Kashima, who can leverage their superior tactical play and home advantage.

From a betting perspective, the sharpest angle is backing Kashima Antlers at home. Pinnacle offers odds of 1.751 with a 5% edge, while both Betsafe and Betsson list it at 1.72 with a 3% edge. Given the model’s 60% probability, these odds present a solid value bet in what promises to be a closely monitored fixture.

Kashima Antlers

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #6xP/match #9Points #3

Key players

Leo CearaFxG 0.80 · xT 0.20
Ryoya OgawaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.15 · xT 0.03

Avispa Fukuoka

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #4xT #15xP/match #6Points #12

Key players

Werik Silva PintoFxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
Tomoya MikiCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
Teppei OkaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Kashima Antlers – Avispa Fukuoka

Predicted score matrix

Avispa Fukuoka →

Kashima Antlers →

0–09.2%

0–16.8%

0–22.8%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.0%

1–111.9%

1–24.6%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.6%

2–19.3%

2–23.8%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–06.3%

3–15.1%

3–22.0%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.7%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-112%
3.2-012%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,62–0,80

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.52

Over 2,544%

@2.32EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Kashima Antlers to win60%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Kashima Antlers to win60%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Yuma Suzuki to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Yuma Suzuki to score35%
Kokoro Maeda to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Kashima Antlers60% probability@1.75PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
1 · Kashima Antlers60% probability@1.72BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
1 · Kashima Antlers60% probability@1.72BetssonEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kashima Antlers	X	2 · Avispa Fukuoka
Betsafe	EV+ 3% 1.72	3.30	4.90
Betsson	EV+ 3% 1.72	3.30	4.90
Nordicbet	EV+ 3% 1.72	3.30	4.90
Pinnacle	EV+ 5% 1.75	3.45	5.09

Odds updated 15 Aug, 16:18

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Kashima Antlers 1Draw 4Avispa Fukuoka 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 0,7)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Kashima Antlers come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Kashima Antlers win 57% of their home matches all-time (56 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kashima Antlers

Avispa Fukuoka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kashima Antlers (6–4)

Avispa Fukuoka (3–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kashima Antlers

Avispa Fukuoka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kashima Antlers

Avispa Fukuoka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kashima Antlers	Avispa Fukuoka
Points	6	3
xPoints	2.8	3.4
xG per match	1.8	1
xGA per match	1.2	0.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.15

Playing style	Kashima Antlers	Avispa Fukuoka
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.65	0.4
xT per match	1.3	0.84
xTA per match	0.84	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	23	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	8	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.63
Passes per match	416	214
Passes against per match	284	386
Switches of play per match	29.9	16.5
Long balls per match	41	26

Set pieces	Kashima Antlers	Avispa Fukuoka
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.03
Corners per match	5.7	3.5
Corners against per match	1.9	1.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.67

Other	Kashima Antlers	Avispa Fukuoka
Throw-in control	0.71	0.76

The goalkeepers	Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers)	Takumi Nagaishi (Avispa Fukuoka)
Saves	2	3
Save %	40%	75%
xG prevented	15%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka according to our model?

The model gives Kashima Antlers a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashima Antlers 60%, draw 24%, Avispa Fukuoka 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.